We’re back with a Friday free play for everyone. So far this season we are up 27.7 Units overall on College Basketball. Our Free Plays here are 3-1. We’re 5-7-1 this week, but we’ve had a tough week this week on coin flips going 1-4-1 losing those 4 games by a combined three and a half points. That’s some tough sledding. I think my process is dialed in as we head into the home stretch. One type of play to consider right now is if you like a big favorite in a repeat conference match-up look at the first half line. Teams are resting players more in the second half of blowouts and there have been a lot of back door late covers the last week or so.
My free play features the Yale Bulldogs (17-6 Overall, 7-3 Ivy) traveling to The Palestra in Philadelphia to take on the Pennsylvania Quakers (14-11 Overall, 6-4 Ivy). This is a big time match-up in the Ivy league as the top 6 teams are all within two games of each other. The line sits at Yale -3 with the Over/Under checking in at 142.5.
Both of these teams are coming in HOT! Yale has won 6 straight games by an average margin of 15.1 points. The Bulldogs have 4 different players averaging double digits and are led by Junior Forward Matt Knowling at 14.4 Points Per Game. Since losing to Yale 70-63 in New Haven on January 21st, The Quakers have won 5 straight by an average of 12.4 ppg. They only have 3 players averaging double digits in points, but they are led by the conference leader in scoring Jordan Dingle who sits at 24.0 Points Per Game.
For me this game is going to come down to defense. First however, lets take a look at the offenses. Both units are fairly equal when they have the ball. Yale shoots it just a little better from the field while Penn has a sizeable advantage at the charity stripe. Neither team likes to push the ball, but they aren’t the slowest tempos in the country either. Yale is the Top team in Ivy league play at taking care of the rock turning it over on only 14.9% of their possessions. Penn is at 19.3%. As I mentioned I think this game comes down to defense and that is where Yale excels, especially since the beginning of conference play. They are tops in the league in AdjD, Offensive Rebound percentage allowed, 2 Point FG % and Shot blocking, and they rank in the top 4 in every defensive metric. Penn has been good at limiting opposing FG%, however they have struggled to keep teams off the glass, and are also struggling to keep teams off the charity stripe.
In the first game Dingle went off for 27 points on 10 for 17 shooting overall and 6 of 11 from outside. He didn’t get much help however. Yale won the game by taking care of the ball and getting the the line. I see more of the same coming tonight, and I expect Yale to improve on the 39.3% they shot from the field in the first game. Yale is the most well rounded team in the Ivy League and they know they have to have this game tonight to stay atop the conference standings. Gimme The Bulldogs in this big game.
Take Yale -3 for 1.5 Units
