To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(1u): TCU ML(-125) vs Kansas–8 PM CT
If Saturday’s 25-point win and 100-point outing vs Oklahoma State wasn’t an indication that it’s time to “buy” on TCU, I don’t know what is. TCU had entered Saturday on a 4 game losing streak but saw their value increase in the betting markets, and for good reason. With Mike Miles Jr fully integrated back into the lineup, this is the right time to take a stand with the Horned Frogs in this sort of spot.
Kansas is playing about as good of basketball as anybody at the moment, but this is not a team I’m racing to the window to back on the road. We saw Kansas State take down the Jayhawks in an eerily similar spot, while Iowa State won comfortably vs Kansas as well.
TCU’s 23-point win in Lawrence earlier in the season definitely included some good fortune, but there are repeatable aspects of that matchup that I expect to carry over here. Kansas was forced into 17 turnovers at home in the first meeting and has been mediocre at taking care of the ball this year; given TCU ranks 16th in TO’s forced per game, I expect a similar struggle for Kansas in this game. Miles certainly helps TCU’s perimeter play, but TCU operates almost solely around the rim offensively. Kansas is good at protecting the rim and defending the 2, but they are quite mediocre on the defensive glass, while TCU is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Big12.
I also expect a sizable free throw disparity in this matchup. TCU gets to the line at a Top 50 rate and fouls less than 16 times per game. The Horned Frogs are one of the most experienced teams in the conference that are gelling at the right time; I see Kansas coughing one up on the road.
