The Arnold Palmer Invitational – Preview & Picks

Chris Kirk wins the Honda Classic capturing his fifth career PGA tour victory. This was his first since the 2015 Charles Schwab Challenge.

We stay in Florida as the Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place in Orlando. It’s one of the newly ‘elevated’ events which has caused nineteen of the top twenty players in the world to compete at Bay Hill this week. It should be a great week of golf so let’s break down the event and try to find some winners.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 2nd, 2023 – March 5th, 2023
• Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
• Course: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Champion/ Challenger)
• Course Type: Florida
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,466 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .375”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 3”
• Bunkers: 84
• Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 / $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 550
• Field/ Cut: 120 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +3
  • 2021: +2
  • 2020: +3
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 73.89 (+1.89), Rank 4 of 50
  • 2021: 73.02 (+1.02), Rank 9 of 51
  • 2020: 74.11 (+2.11), Rank 1 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, March 2nd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, March 3rd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, March 4th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, March 5th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Sunny 86 F, 11 mp/h W, 54% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 12 mp/h W, 53% Humidity, 19% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 10 mp/h W, 54% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: AM Showers 80 F, 11 mp/h W, 57% Humidity, 41% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Arnold Palmer Invitational was founded in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Invitational. The event went through several different names but has played under the current name since 2007. In 2004, MasterCard became the main sponsor of the tournament and has retained the rights ever since.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge has hosted this event since its debut. Arnold Palmer bought the club back in 1970 and then renovated the course in 2009. The renovation included an overhaul of all 18 greens, the reworking of most bunkers, and additional yardage added which changed the Par from 71 to 72. It’s known as one of the toughest courses on the Tour and continually attracts a very strong field.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the newly ‘elevated’ or ‘designated’ events on Tour. With that, the purse has increased to $20 million which is a significant increase from last year’s purse of $12 million.

Tiger Woods holds the record for most wins at this event with 7; 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Payne Stewart (1987)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984), Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Just like last week at PGA National, Bay Hill is an extremely difficult course. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2022, only four holes played under par No. 4, No. 6, No. 12, and No. 16.

It plays 7,466 yards which makes it one of the longest courses on the Tour. In addition to the length, the fairways rank 19 out of 54 in terms of width. Driving Accuracy is a crucial stat this week as the rough, that’s 3″ thick, can be extremely difficult to play out of.

The greens are some of the largest that players will be on see Tour as they rank 7th out of 54. While the greens are some of the biggest, they roll very fast making approach shots very difficult as players will most likely be hitting long irons into them given the distance. As if the distance and fast bermudagrass greens aren’t enough, Bay Hill has the 15th most bunkers on Tour and the 11th most water-danger holes.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6th

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x3)
• Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
• Proximity: 200 – 225 Yards
• Driving Distance
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 120 players in the field at this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Nineteen of the world’s top twenty players will be in the field with the lone exclusion being Cameron Smith. Scottie Scheffler will look to defend his title and join Matt Every (’14-’15), Tiger Woods (’12-’13, ’08-’09, ’00-’01-’02-’03), and Loren Roberts (’94-’95) as the only players to have won this event in back to back years. Tiger Woods won this event, then known as the Bay Hill Innovational, four consecutive times in a row ranging from 2000 to 2003. In his 2003 victory, he won by 11-strokes which is the largest margin of victory in the history of the tournament. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

• Jon Rahm (+650), has won three tournaments this season which is the most of any player. He’s coming off a win the win at the Genesis Invitational where he gained 3.17 strokes on approach over the field. In his seven PGA Tour starts this year, Rahm has yet to finish worse than T8. Rahm finished tied for 17th in his lone appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year.
• Rory McIlroy (+850), won the CJ Cup in South Carolina to start the season but has failed to crack the top 20 in his two other starts on Tour. He finished T32 at the WM Pheonix Open and T29 at the Genesis Invitational. In both of those events, he struggled on the greens losing strokes putting. McIlroy has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his eight appearances at Bay Hill which includes his 2018 victory.
• Scottie Scheffler (+1000), successfully defended his title at the WM Pheonix Open a few weeks ago giving him his first victory of the year. He’ll look to do the same at Bay Hill after winning this event last season. In his eight PGA Tour starts this year, Scheffler has only finished outside the top-12 once.
• Max Homa (+1600), has won two events this season, the Farmers Insurance Open and Fortinet Championship. In his last start, he finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational failing to outduel Jon Rahm down the stretch. In his eight PGA Tour starts this year, he has never finished outside the top 40. Homa will make his fourth appearance at Bay Hill finishing T24/ T10/ T17 in the three previous seasons.
• Justin Thomas (+2000), will make his return to Bay Hill after only competing in the 2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T49. After a slow start to the season where Thomas finished T40 at the CJ Cup, JT has finished inside the top-25 in his last five starts on Tour.
• Collin Morikawa (+2000), has six top-20 finishes in his eight starts on Tour this year. He’s coming off a T6 finish at the Genesis Invitational. Before that, he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open struggling on the greens. This will be his first appearance at Bay Hill since 2020 when he finished T9.
• Xander Schauffele (+2200), finished tied for 24th in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut last season. So far this year, he has six top-20 finishes in his eight Tour starts. One of those finishes outside the top 20 came a couple of weeks ago at Riviera CC where Schauffele finished tied for thirty-third.
• Tony Finau (+2200), has struggled at this event missing the cut in two of his four appearances at Bay Hill. His best finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was in 2017 where he finished T28. He started the season missing the WWT Championship but followed it up with a win at the Houston Open a week later. Since then, Finau has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last six starts on Tour.
• Patrick Cantlay (+2200), will be making his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut this week. He’s coming off a 3rd place finish at the Genesis Invitational where he gained strokes in every category. His best finish of the year was at the Shriner’s Children’s Open where he finished tied for second.

 

• Previous Winners in the field:
  • Scottie Scheffler (’22), Tyrrell Hatton (’20), Francesco Molinari (’19), Rory McIlroy (’18), Jason Day (’16), Martin Laird (’11)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Rory McIlroy: T11/ T27/ T4/ 1/ T6/ T5/ T10/ T13
• Scottie Scheffler: T15/ 1
• Sungjae Im: T3/ 3/ T21/ T20
• Max Homa: T24/ T10/ T17
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout: T18/ 7/ T20
• Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/ T27/ T13/ MC/ 2/ T9/ T10/ T9
• Jason Kokrak: MC/ 4/ T6/ T20/ T56/ MC/ T10/ T18/ T8/ T26
• Chris Kirk: MC/ T16/ T60/ MC/ T12/ MC/ 13/ T15/ T8/ T5
• Corey Conners: MC/ MC/ 3/ T11
• Tyrrell Hatton: T4/ T69/ T29/ 1/ T21/ T2
• Tommy Fleetwood: T10/ T26/ T3/ MC/ T10/ T20

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Sepp Straka: MC/ MC/ MC
• Peter Malnati: MC/ MC/ MC
• Scott Stallings: T48/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ T40/ MC
• Shane Lowry: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Matthew NeSmith: MC/ MC
• Cameron Davis: MC/ MC
• Scott Piercy: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ T54/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
  • Price: 16-1
• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
  • Price: 12-1
• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
  • Price: 33-1
• 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
  • Price: 20-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

Last week with the weak field, I went with a higher volume card as I usually do. In those events, there’s more unpredictability so you want to spread the units around more to include more names than usual. This week is a completely different approach. This event is very top heavy so I went with a few guys near the top of the odds board.

• Collin Morikawa (+2100) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units

• Will Zalatoris (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Xander Schauffele (+2400) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.34 to win 8.16 Units

Xander has had a strong start to the season finishing five top-15 finishes. In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, he had his worst finish of the year (T33). His approach play has been trending in the right direction as he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. In his lone appearance at Bay Hill, he finished T24 losing strokes on around the green. This has been an area that Xander has struggled in as he has lost strokes in this category in each of his last two starts. The good news is that SG: Around the Green hasn’t been a pathway to success at this course. While he has yet to win since going back to back at the Travelers and Genesis Scottish Open, I think he has what it takes to win this week.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Sungjae Im (+140) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Sungjae Im hasn’t been great in his last two starts finishing T56 at the Genesis Invitational and T42 at the Honda Classic. However, I’m not putting too much weight behind that as he missed the cut at the Honda Classic last year and still managed to play well at the API. Before that, he has three consecutive finishes inside the top 20. In his four appearances, Im has played well at this event, finishing T3/ 3rd/ T21/ T20. In terms of key stats, Im ranks well in nearly every category this week. While his putting has been an issue as of late, he has gained strokes on the green in each appearance at Bay Hill.

• Tyrrell Hatton (+150) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Tyrrell Hatton had made the cut in each of his four starts on Tour this year. During that span, he has top-20 finishes with the other two being no worse than T45. Hatton has thrived at Bay Hill winning in 2020, finishing T21 in 2021 and T2 last year. That victory was his first and lone career victory on Tour. For key stats, he ranks well in each major strokes gained category outside of around the green. However, he’s recently been trending in the right direction in that category and has gained strokes around the green in each of his last three appearances here. Given his overall recent form and course history, Hatton seems primed to continue his success at Bay Hill.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Aaron Wise (+125) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Aaron Wise finished T17 last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite losing 1.01 strokes putting. At the Honda Classic, he finished T29 after missing two consecutive cuts. Before that stretch, he finished 6/ T15/ T22/ T18. Wise has been much improved on the greens, ranking 12th in strokes gained this season. His approach play has been the area that’s hurt him but he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last two trips to Bay Hill. While Wise has yet to win since 2018, he has been able to put together some impressive finishes. This is also a great number given as FD has it set at +110, while BetRivers has it at -110.

• Tom Hoge (+140) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Tom Hoge has made the cut in three of his four appearances at Bay Hill. In the three starts that he did play on the weekend, he finished T26/ T15/ T32. He’s played pretty well this year ranking 2nd in SG: Approach, 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 45th in SG: Putting. His putting has seen a significant improvement from last season as he finished 105th on Tour in strokes gained. Hoge has struggled off the tee but has gained strokes in that category in five of his last seven starts. His game’s been trending in the right direction and he should be able to finish inside the number this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The Arnold Palmer Invitational: 5.10 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.