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How fun was February? We ended +25.98 units! Cheers to March Madness and building our bankroll!
Xavier at Providence -3.5 (O/U 151.5) 6:30pm ET
The Musketeers head to Providence Wednesday night for a Big East clash! The Friars have won 17 straight home games dating back to last season. Xavier will attempt everything in its power to end that streak. Rise up, sink to the bottom, this is what Xavier does best. Meaning they play up to their competition and down to their competition. They’re 11-4-1 ATS vs teams over .500 and 3-6 ATS vs teams under .500. They have had 4 days to prep for this battle, for a team with a light bench, 4 days of tranquility. They play the road dog role especially well, going 6-3 ATS away in conference games and 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs.
We all know this Friar squad is good, but so is Xavier. I don’t believe they have the firepower to keep up with Xavier for 40 minutes. The Musketeers are averaging a sky-high 49.7 % shooting on the season, more importantly with no drop off on the road. While also averaging a whopping 20 assists per game. Both teams come into this game playing excellent ball, but Xavier has had to do it without their top rebounder, Freemantle. Going 4-3 without him. Destroying Seton Hall 4 days ago, winning in OT vs this Friar squad and losing games down to the wire by 1 point vs Villanova and at Marquette.
Xavier can shoot the rock, but can they play defense? Not necessarily well, but just enough for their offense. In their L5 games, they have given up 66 points a game, 43% shooting, 6 three’s per game, causing 11.4 turnovers and more importantly giving up only 5.8 rebounds per game. Not giving Providence 2nd looks and the extra rest for this light line up, will be the difference tonight!
Xavier +3.5 (FanDuel -105) 1 unit
Xavier ML +146 (FanDuel) 0.4 unit
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame +3.5 (O/U 142.5) 7:00pm ET
The Pitt Panthers head to Notre Dame tonight, with two teams heading in completely different directions. One has their sight set on a March Madness run, the other is looking forward to next season. The Panthers winners of 10 of 12 and 15 of 19, best word to describe them is CONSISTENT. I don’t see a let-down vs the lowly Irish for this exact reason. Offensively they seem to do everything well, more importantly they take it on the road with them. Where they have 7 wins and are 9-1 ATS. Stringing together wins is in their DNA. They’re 16-4 ATS off a win, and an astounding 7-1 ATS off a win on the road!
The Irish, well what can we say good about them? They can string together 3 pointers in their big runs, that’s about all I got. At home they’re 5-13 ATS, vs teams over .500 they are 3-8 ATS, and 0-4 in their L4. As well as 3-15 SU in their last 18 contests, with wins vs ACC basement dwellers L’ville and Georgia Tech, also Jacksonville University. Bad news for the Irish, Pittsburgh plays better defense on the road than at home. Giving up 38.8% shooting and 29% from behind the arc. These spread killers are 20-8-1 overall on the season, and I see the win column elevating tonight. With a UNIT UPGRADE!
Pittsburgh -3.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.5 units
Penn St at Northwestern -4.5 (O/U 133.5) 9:00pm ET
Northwestern found themselves in an unfamiliar position a few weeks ago, ranked in the top 25. For a school that has only made the dance one time, this was a big deal! Since then, they lost a gut wrenching game at Illinois where they blew a 19 point halftime lead, as well as a 2nd half 15 point deficit. It was then followed, also expected, by a complete let down at Maryland. Previous to the Illini game, they were 9-2 in their last 11 and rolling. Now they head back to the Welsh Ryan Arena where success has been found quite often for the Cats. Winning and covering 4 of 5, as well as 6 of 8, with truly signature wins vs quality competition. They are led by a defensive minded Head Coach in Chris Collins, have a play-maker with an ability to take over at any time in Boo Buie, and quite honestly believe their good!
Now they face a Nittany Lion squad who was having success of their own, winning 3 of 4, until they blew a 19 point lead to the offensive-less Rutgers team just 3 days ago. Confidence, broken. Now granted they shot 52% vs OSU, Minnesota and Illinois the three games before, but those teams don’t honestly play much defense. Is Northwestern the flashiest offense? No. Do they score in bunches, no, but they get the job done. Facing a defense like Penn St won’t hurt either, who give up 48% shooting per game, as well as 40% from behind the arc. Previous to the Rutgers game, teams averaged 49% against them the previous 7.
What does Penn St do well, they do have the ability to shoot at a high %, averaging 46.7% per game, as well as ranking in the top 15 from downtown. The Wildcats will counter that with a ferocious defense, only giving up 38.6% shooting at home, as well as 31.8% from three. While causing 14.4 turnovers per game. When Penn St can’t shoot at a high % it’s a problem, because they don’t get to the line often at 11 per game and only 5 offensive rebounds per game. Due to all this information this will be a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me on the Wildcats!
Northwestern -4.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
For anyone tailing, good luck and lets destroy March!
