Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at Theoddsbreakers.com shortly.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL Central
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
St. Louis Cardinals -135/ 88.5
Milwaukee Brewers +170/ 85.5
Chicago Cubs +425/ 77.5
Pittsburgh Pirates +4500/ 68
Cincinnati Reds +4500/ 65.5
St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds are the favorite in the NL Central this year and rightfully so. Led by reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado the redbirds became more potent at and behind the dish with the addition of Willson Contreras through free agency. Tommy Edman is one of the best leadoff men in the league atop the lineup. They have plenty of depth all around the lineup and Jordan Walker waiting in the wings. The starting pitching staff isn’t elite and to put in kindly….it’s old. Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas are at the top of the rotation. Jordan Montgomery was a solid addition last year in a trade with the Yankees. If Jack Flaherty can return to his pre-injury form the Cards will find a few more wins. The bullpen has plenty of power arms with lots of whiff material. Ryan Helsey will close most nights with Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Hicks getting him the ball. Prediction 90-72
Milwaukee Brewers
I was very high on the Crew last year, but I didn’t take one thing into account. Their lack of depth. Once the injury bug started biting the team fell apart. The team didn’t do much to address internal depth in the off-season, but they did make upgrades at catcher by signing William Contreras. Willy Adams finally started living up to his pedigree in 2022 launching 31 Homers. Christian Yelich hasn’t played up to his MVP standard since he won it, but is still formidable. Rowdy Tellez is an underrated power bat in the heart of the lineup. The bottom half of the lineup and the bench is below average. The staff is the strength of the Crew led by 2021 Cy Young Corbin Burnes. Word on the street is he wants out of Milwaukee and that’s something to keep and eye on this year. Brandon Woodruff is solid as a #2 Arm. Freddy Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff on the planet and if he can find a way to stay healthy could increase their chances of bypassing the Cards in the division. Speaking of nasty stuff, closer Devin Williams’ change-up if one of the nastiest pitches you’ll find. The Rest of the bullpen will struggle to hold leads however. Prediction 84-78
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are still rebuilding I think… They let Willson Contreras walk to a division rival, but then spent a bunch of money to sign Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Tucker Barnhardt. All of whom are projected to start for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner has blossomed into a homegrown elite leadoff contact hitter with a great mix of speed and a little pop. The rotation isn’t strong with Marcus Stroman likely getting the ball on opening day. Justin Steele has some potential, but the rest of the group is underwhelming. The bullpen has breakout Brandon Hughes set to work in some high leverage capacity, and they signed Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer to add some depth. I think a lot of the signings are simply paying for decent trade pieces as we get to July this year. The Cubs are still a few years and a few arms away from competing again. Prediction 77-85
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates didn’t make as many free agent signings as the Cubs only bringing back Andrew McCutchen alongside Carlos Santana and Rich Hill, but I think they are actually on a faster trajectory towards being competitive. Bryan Reynolds likely wont be around to see the competitive team, but for now he’s the best in the lineup. O’Neill Cruz is something special. Watch the effortless power in his swing and you’ll be in awe. Rodolofo Castro has some interesting tools, and other top prospect Endy Rodriguez may be up at some point this year. The rotation isn’t great, but Roansy Contreras will be a #1 starter if not this year then in 2024. Mitch Keller was highly touted, but just hasn’t put things together. David Bednar has emerged as an elite closer who I think will get traded later in the season. The restof the bullpen is well below MLB average. I think the Bucs will win some games early before trading away pieces and fading in August and September. Prediction 70-92
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will look for some bounce back seasons for their young talent as they continue their rebuild. Where the Pirates have the batters with high potential I like the young Cincinnati arms coming up. The hitters needing to get on track are Jonathan India and Nick Senzel. They signed Wil Myers for some vetaran pop and they still have Joey Votto around, but he is now well past his prime. They have three really good homegrown arms in the rotation in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Both Greene and Lodolo could be future #1’s. Alexis Diaz will be the teams closer this year, but there are no other decent arms in the bullpen. Prediction 69-93
NL Central Free Plays
One item of note is that with the adjusted more balanced schedule the games played vs division opponents this year is 13. That means that each division is going to go 130-130 against itself instead of the 190-190 of previous years. What that means in this scenario is that the Cards and Brewers have less games to beat up on the Bucs, Cubs and Reds and more games against a much more balanced American League.
I like the Cards to win this division, but the price is set correctly. The Brewers at +170 is the only way to play this one, but again I think it takes a very healthy season for them to make it happen so I am passing on the division markets here.
Cincinnati Reds over 65.5 1 Unit
