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*CBB(1u): Auburn +3 vs Arkansas–6 PM CT
This is a very even matchup in a lot of respects; these are two very disruptive defensives that thrive on the ball, and each team struggles greatly to make outside shots. I’ll also concede that Arkansas does a better job of playing to their strengths offensively and avoiding bad shot selection. However, the intangible aspects of this matchup were enough to get me on the Tigers at this number.
Auburn is one of the most experienced teams in CBB, while Arkansas is one of the youngest. Arkansas will put a lot of the load on freshman guard Nick Smith Jr down the stretch of the game, while Auburn features an array of chiseled veterans. You can say this doesn’t matter, but I would vehemently disagree.
These are also two very foul-happy defenses, so I think FT shooting will matter as much in this matchup as perhaps any I’ve bet this season. Auburn holds a near 1.5% edge in this department, and I think the experience factor plays to our favor here as well.
We saw the Tigers win comfortably vs Arkansas earlier in the season, and I saw some “buy signs” in Saturday’s win over Tennessee. We can run through all the numbers(most of which will be even), but this handicap is as simple as you can’t give Auburn 3 points here considering the intangibles of this matchup.
