Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
Al Central
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
Cleveland Guardians +120/87
Minnesota Twins +155/84.5
Chicago White Sox +210/82.5
Detroit Tigers +1800/69.5
Kansas City Royals +2300/69
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians won 87 games last year, but I felt they over achieved and the bottom of this division has improved. They did add Josh Bell in Free agency along with All or nothing catcher Mike Zunino who will mentor prospect Bo Naylor. The core of the lineup remains the same and revolves around Jose Ramirez. While he is the only top option on the team, the rest of the core is solid with Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez. Emmanuel Clase was the #2 ranked closer in 2022 and has James Karinchak to get him the ball. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie lead the staff, but the other three were all over achievers in 2022 and I expect regression from Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill and Zach Pleasac. There’s nothing special about this group, and I don’t see them as much more than a .500 team. Prediction 82-80
Minnesota Twins
The Twins were fairly active in the off-season with trades and free agency, but nothing really flashy. The resigning of Carlos Correa after his world tour was probably the most important. He’ll hit in the two hole behind of the oft-injured and uber talented Byron Buxton. I’d love to see what this guy could do in his prime if he stayed healthy for a full season. Jose Miranda and Max Kepler should bat behind them, but overall this lineup is below MLB average top to bottom. The rotation will be led by their trade acquisition Pablo Lopez. He’ll be followed up by Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and the wild card in the group Tyler Mahle. This rotation has potential to be highly above average top to bottom if they can stay healthy. Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez will split the closing duties. If the rotation performs they could exceed expectations, but I just don’t see them being any better than 2022. Prediction 80-82
Chicago White Sox
The Pale Sox lost Jose Abreu in Free Agency and replaced him with their big splash Andrew Benintendi. It’s hard to project sarcasm in writing, but trust me it was there. For a team with a solid pitching staff and solid core of hitters they were likely a few solid players away from competing now. They chose to not spend however and are locked into mediocrity. The top of the lineup is solid with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert offering a dual threat of speed and power combo guys. Eloy Jimenez is an elite slugger, he just needs to put together an injury free season. The bottom of the order is above average, but the depth is weak. Dylan Cease is an ace in the bullpen, but Lucas Giolito hasn’t performed up to his scouting report to this point. Lance Lynn is a solid innings eater with great ratios. Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger will bring up the rear. Liam Hendriks is out as the closer dealing with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, and we wish him well. Until he returns Kendall Graveman will handle the closing duties and things could be rough at the end of games. Depth is going to be a major issue here and the White Sox just keep treading water. Prediction 76-86
Kansas City Royals
The Royals remind me of a poor man’s version of the overachieving 2021 Seattle Mariners. The are lead by a power hitting veteran in Salvador Perez, and have filled in around him with an array of homegrown talent. Bobby Witt is a star in the making atop the order. MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino are big time sluggers who also possess elite on base skills. The bottom of the order features some homegrown average talent and a handle of NRI that will give this team solid depth on offense. The rotation has seen a return of Zack Greinke to his roots. Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he can mentor Brady Singer who has some elite metrics. The rest of the staff is below average. The bullpen has Scott Barlow as the closer, and they signed Aroldis Chapman as trade-bait and to give him a chance prove himself after an awful 2022. Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont are both solid as well. Maybe I’m too high on the Royals (If 74 wins is being high on a team), and they’re likely a year and a few starters away from competing, but sometimes like those 2021 Mariners things happen quicker. Prediction 74-88
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have Javier Baez, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations in Detroit. Austin Meadows dealt with some personal demons and vertigo, but was a top prospect. Riley Green and Spencer Torkelson were both 1st round picks, but haven’t yet taken the next step after making their debuts. They should both be improved this year. The great Miguel Cabrera farewell tour is also on for 2023, but he is a marginal contributor at best. Eduardo Rodriguez is the best arm in the rotation, but no one is going to be on any Cy Young radars without a guy who Ks a batter per 9 innings and no one projected for a Sub 4.00 ERA. Their two top young arms Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize are likely only going to be available late in the year if at all followng elbow surgery. The bullpen has Alex Lange who looks like a viable closer on paper and not much else. Prediction 70-92
AL Central Free Plays
Even though my predictions show the top three teams well under their win totals I am being conservative on my investment as I think this division is wide open and it’s probably likely one of them will break out. I tagged along a Kiev O’Neill thought on the Royals earlier this spring to win the division at +3000, and I would call +2300 closer to where it should be, but it’s the only value on the division if you want to go that route.
Cleveland Under 87 Wins .5 Units
Minnesota Under 84.5 Wins .5 Units
Chicago White Sox Under 82.5 Wins .5 Units
Kansas City Royals Over 69 Wins 1 Unit
