NHL Preview & Picks – March 23rd, 2023

We have twelve games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• New York Rangers: 41-20-10, 3rd Metropolitan (20-8-6 Away)
• Carolina Hurricanes: 46-15-8, 1st Metropolitan (24-8-2 Home)

These teams matched up two nights ago at Madison Square Garden where the Hurricanes (+106) defeated the Rangers 3-2 (O/U:6.0). That narrow loss ended the Rangers four game winning streak. Carolina has now won back-to-back games and holds a narrow lead in the Metropolitan Division over the Devils. New York’s in comfortable third place in that same division but can help their rivals gain some ground tonight with a win.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Toronto Maple Leafs: 42-19-9, 2nd Atlantic (17-12-4 Away)
• Florida Panthers: 36-28-7, 4th Atlantic (21-10-4 Home)

Toronto is coming off a brutal 7-1 loss against the New York Islanders. Before that, they rattled off two wins against the Senators and Hurricanes. The Leafs are currently 2nd place in the Atlantic Division with a three-point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they do have two games in hand. Florida’s currently in a wild-card playoff battle with the Islanders and Penguins. They’ve been on a hot streak as of late going 7-2-1 in their last ten but need to keep pace if they hope to see the postseason. In their previous matchup this season, the Leafs (-161) defeated the Panthers 5-4 (O/U:6.5) in OT.

Seattle Kraken @ Nashville Predators

• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Seattle Kraken: 39-24-7, 4th Pacific (23-9-3 Away)
• Nashville Predators: 35-26-8, 5th Central (17-12-4 Home)

The Seattle Kraken control their playoff destiny as they currently sit in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games after losing their three previous games before that. Nashville has made a playoff push despite a depleted roster and selling some of their talent at the deadline. The Predators are four points out of the second wild-card spot with three games in hand on the Jets. They ended their three-game losing streak against the Sabres on Tuesday night and are hoping to ride that momentum into tonight’s game. In their only matchup this season, the Kraken (-112) defeated the Predators 5-1 (O/U:6.5).

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Dallas Stars

• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 35-26-10, 5th Metropolitan (16-15-5 Away)
• Dallas Stars: 38-19-14, 1st Central (17-9-9 Home)

The Penguins stopped their four-game skid with a massive 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche last night. They have another tough matchup tonight and haven’t done well on no rest this season with a 4-7-2 record. As of now, they currently hold the second wild card spot in the East. The Dallas Stars are currently tied for first in the Central Division with the Minnesota Wild. They’ve been in a bit of a slump lately losing three of their last four games. Part of the reason for that decline has been Jake Oettinger who’s allowed five goals in each of his last two starts. In their only matchup this season, the Penguins (-124) defeated the Stars 5-1 (O/U:6.5).

Vegas Golden Knights @ Calgary Flames

• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• Vegas Golden Knights: 44-21-6, 1st Pacific (22-7-5 Away)
• Calgary Flames: 32-25-15, 5th Pacific (16-14-4 Home)

Vegas holds a narrow lead in the Pacific Division over the Los Angeles Kings. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late winning eight of their last ten games. However, one of their losses during that span was to Calgary (-113) where they lost 7-2 (O/U:6.0). The Flames have been a disappointment this season and find themselves on the outside looking in. They’re four points out of a playoff spot with ten games remaining. If they want to have any shot, they need to hope for Winnipeg to have a meltdown.

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

• Boston Bruins 1st Period -0.5 (-115) – DraftKings

Historically, the Bruins have dominated the Canadiens winning each of their last eight matchups. However, the Bruins’ moneyline and puckline are unplayable tonight so I had to get creative to find ways to back them. In the last ten games, the Bruins have averaged 1.10 GF/G and 0.60 GA/G. On the other hand, the Canadiens have averaged 1.60 GF/G and 2.10 GA/G in the last ten games. At home, the Bruins have covered this line in six of their last ten games. On the road, the Canadiens have been leading after the first in just three of their last ten games. Earlier this season, they were tied after the first period, but I think the Bruins have a little extra spark tonight. The Bruins also have a significant advantage in net tonight given the goaltender matchup of Allen vs Swayman. Jake Allen faced Colorado in his last start where he allowed six goals on fifteen shot attempts. He’ll face another high-powered offense tonight where I’m expecting a similar result.

• Tampa Bay Lightning/ Ottawa Senators over 6.5 (-130) – Caesars

Tampa Bay is coming off a terrible loss against the Canadiens on Tuesday night where they only scored twice. They’ve shown that they have the ability to rebound, and I fully expect them to do so tonight. Ottawa’s offense has been stagnant in their last two games, but I expect that to change tonight as well. They’ve been much better at home this season, averaging 3.54 GF/G compared to 2.64 GF/G on the road. Tampa has also been worse defensively on the road this season averaging 3.34 GA/G compared to 2.76 GA/G at home. The goaltending matchup is also advantageous for the total as well. Brian Elliot has been confirmed as the starter for Tampa Bay which has caused the line to swing in Ottawa’s favor. While he hasn’t been awful with a -1.0 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) this season, he has historically struggled against the Senators. In each of his last two matchups against them, he’s allowed at least three goals. Mads Sogaard will get the nod for Ottawa who has a -2.2 GSAx in thirteen starts. In his last seven starts, he’s allowed at least four goals.

• Chicago Blackhawks / Washington Capitals over 6.0 (-120) – Caesars

Anton Khudobin will get his first start for Chicago after being acquired from the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline. Khudobin was 3-4-1 with a 3.64 GAA and .879 save percentage before being demoted to the minors. Opposite of him, will be Darcy Kuemper who’s been in a sump allowing four goals in each of his last two starts. Washington has been horrendous defensively allowing at least five goals in each of their last three games. While Chicago, has been great up front, they should be able to get a few past Kuemper tonight. I’m expecting Washington to carry the load in terms of goals tonight. As I mentioned before, they’ve been poor defensively but have been solid offensively. I expect this to be a sloppy game tonight especially given the goaltending which is why I can see this going over the total.

• Vancouver Canucks Team Total over 3.5 (-135) – DraftKings
• Vancouver Canucks in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings

Despite a whirlwind season, the Canucks have found some energy and have won seven of their last ten games. During that span, they have only scored over 3.5 goals four times. However, they face a familiar opponent and goaltender that they’ve had success against in the past. James Reimer will get the start for the San Jose Sharks tonight. He has allowed at least four goals against in three of his last five starts. In his previous two starts against the Canucks, he has allowed 5/6 goals. The Sharks are an absolute trainwreck losing nine of their last ten games. During that span, they’ve allowed at least four goals in eight of those matchups. In their three previous matchups against the Canucks this season, they’ve allowed at least four goals in each of those games. Vancouver has shown some signs of life towards the end of the season despite a season to forget. San Jose on the other hand, looks lifeless in their recent games excluding Edmonton. I like Vancouver to roll tonight, especially with Demko in net.

Player Props to Target:

• Dylan Strome over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings
  • Dylan Strome has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five as well. In his previous matchup against the Blackhawks, Strome recorded over 0.5 points. This is also a revenge angle as Strome played for the Chicago Blackhawks from 2018-2022.

• Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 Points (+140) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
  • Aleksander Barkov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 points in each of his last three. In each of his three previous matchups against the Maple Leafs, Barkov recorded over 1.5 points.

• Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
  • Kevin Hayes has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 4.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Wild rank 12th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.73. On the road, that number increases to 31.80. Minnesota has also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games. In his previous matchup against the Wild, Hayes had three shots on goal in seven attempts.

• David Pastrnak over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – DraftKings
  • David Pastrnak has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 8.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last three. The Canadiens rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.08. On the road, that number increases to 35.94. Montreal has also given up the 2nd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his previous matchup against the Canadiens this season, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal in fifteen attempts.

• J.T. Miller over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – BetRivers
  • J.T. Miller has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Sharks rank 22nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.90. On the road, that number increases to 32.89. San Jose has also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season. In his previous matchup against the Sharks this season, Miller had three shots on goal in four attempts.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.