We went 3-1 in my previous article breaking down the West in the Round of 64, unfortunately the over misses by a few points from an undefeated article. Now let’s break down the two Sweet 16 match-ups in the West.
8 Arkansas vs 4 UConn -3.5 (O/U 140) 7:15pm ET
First we have one of the most intriguing match-ups of the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks vs the Huskies, a battle of two squads with very high ceilings. Arkansas clawed their way back to a victory taking down the defending champs, then Coach Musselman took off his shirt. No really, he did, he then went on to jump on the scorers table hyping up the crowd in a bizarre scene. Do they have enough to get back to the Elite 8? In my opinion, UConn has just a little too much fire power. Now the Arkansas defense has been better in the tournament, but enough to stifle the Huskies for 40 minutes, that will be difficult. I believe it can be done though, which is why I’m not taking a side in this game. The Huskies turn the ball over a little too much for my liking, at 12.4 a game in their L5. UConn has gotten off to slow starts in both tournament games, combined with Arkansas being a 2nd half team, puts me on the under in the first half.
Play: 1H: under 64.5 (BetRivers -110) 0.9 unit
BonusPlay: IF UConn is down at halftime, take them in the 2nd Half. *ONLY IF THEY ARE LOSING* 0.7 unit
3 Gonzaga vs 2 UCLA -1 (O/U 145) 9:45pm ET
Drew Timme and offensive minded Gonzaga, take on defensive minded UCLA. The question is, who will get the best of who? I believe the Bruins smothering defense will be too much for Mark Few and the Zags. Injuries have definitively made the public question this defense, and rightly so, but the next man up mentality has been bought into from these guys since the start. Bona and Singleton are questionable, but on track to play. I believe both got the necessary treatments during the days off to get on the court. This UCLA defense has given up an average of 20 field goals a game in their L4. Will they hold Gonzaga to that low of a total, I would assume not, but it will be a number the Zags are not accustomed too. A big bonus for UCLA, the Zags rank at the bottom in many defensive categories. So if UCLA can shoot at a high %, look out! They have played two games where they have seen the ball go through quite often at 50 and 54% in those two games. Some of these Bruins have done this before and have not forgotten what happened two years ago, when Suggs hit the buzzer beater to knock UCLA out of the tournament. Well revenge is sweet, and has been on the Bruins mind all week!
I know many fans out there are hoping for fireworks tonight and a buzzer beater to drop the fans jaws. I don’t believe we will see this, I think UCLA will beat them comfortably. They will absolutely slow this game down, limiting the Zags possessions, committing very few turnovers and getting back on D.
Play: UCLA ML (DraftKings -115) 1.8 units
Winning Margin: 3-6 points +400 0.25 unit
Winning Margin: 7-9 points +650 0.4 unit
Winning Margin: 10-13 points +700 0.35 unit
