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Milwaukee at Utah +9.5 (O/U 236.5) 9:00pm ET
No Lauri, no Clarkson, no turnovers? A category they have been flat out bad, this Utah team will shoot 50+% from the field and get buried. Why, well lack of possessions due to TO’s. The rest of these guys have started to gel and realized when we play like a team, this game is much easier. Only committing 13 a game in their L5. Hence wins vs quality teams such as Sacramento and Boston. Now the deer are a different animal yes, but I believe this is the perfect spot for Milwaukee to have a let down. Playing without Middleton will definitely hurt as well. Coming off two comfortable wins vs bottom feeder San Antonio, and defenseless Toronto. How do you beat Milwaukee, SCORE. Yes I know, obviously, but they have had trouble putting teams away due to the defensive end. Certainly not offensive, because they just keep coming. Utah has the ability to score at a high rate, and because of this I think they’re a great bet tonight. Oh and being 10-1 ATS as home dogs doesn’t hurt as well, playing the dog role seems to be their specialty. Sporting a 22-6-1 ATS record as 3-12 point underdogs. Let’s sprinkle in some lunch money on the ML as well.
Jazz +9.5 (bet365 -110) 1.5 units
Jazz ML (DraftKings +320) 0.2 unit
Phoenix at Sacramento -3.5 (O/U 239) 10:00pm ET
Yes the Kings got two days to rest at home, was it enough to get back to how they were playing before? I don’t believe so. Playing their 6th game in 10 days, completing two back to backs, four of them on the road and in 3 different time zones. The Kings have shown time and time again playing against inferior competition is their specialty, going 22-12 ATS vs teams under .500. Above .500 they’re not so hot. Problem is Phoenix has been straight up BAD since KD went down with an ankle injury, going 1-5 SU in their L6. Losing by 9 points or more in 4 of them. Giving up 51% shooting and 38% from downtown in their L5. With the Kings averaging almost 18 made three pointers in their L5, is not a good combination. With Ayton out again forcing the Suns to go small and force Chris Paul to pick up the pace. Combined with Sacramento who ranks 1st in pace, I think this will be an up and down the court kind of game.
Over 239 (FanDuel -110) 1.1 units
Let’s move on to my best bet, the Thunder on a back to back. Am I nuts?
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (O/U 230.5) 10:00pm ET
Believe it or not, they have a very good record on a back to back with SHAI PLAYING. The Thunder are 4-2-1 ATS on back to backs, and 4-1 ATS with Shai in the line-up. Four outright wins as dogs of 3 1/2, 4 and 11 points. This is an up and coming team with a bright future. Going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall, and seem to thrive off of a loss. Being 22-13-1 ATS on the season. Are the Lakers playing good ball currently? Absolutely. Unfortunately I think that’s the problem. As soon as the media and sports world say good things about the purple and gold, they become complacent. Playing complacent vs in my opinion the hardest working, dig-deep, out-hustle you for the loose balls team in the NBA is a scary combo! The Lakers give up almost 94 field goal attempts per game, and commit 14 turnovers a game, which plays right into OKC’s hands. I’m all over the Thunder tonight with the points, and will sprinkle in a little ML.
Thunder +5.5 (FanDuel -108) 2.2 units
Thunder ML (FanDuel +184) 0.45 unit
BONUS PLAY: Miami FL ML (DraftKings +290) 0.4 unit 7:15pm ET
I think there is some value in this game on the ML, the Hurricanes have the talent and experience to beat Houston. With Omier back in the line-up and officially healthy, they can go head to head with the Cougars and potentially pull the upset! So I will make a small play on this game.
