Keeneland Saturday, April 8th 2023
Race 2: MSW, for 3yo’s, going 7F on the Dirt
Top Play: #8 BETERRA Rosario-Stall, ML 5-2
This 3 yo colt out of Blame debuted at FG in February, got kind of a slow start but Prat never panicked. He eased him into the race and was picking up the pieces late, with a 96 LP on Brisnet in the stretch run. Lost to the next out winner, undefeated Cox trainee Bishops Bay, and the 2nd place finisher came back to romp in a MSW next out. This is the horse to beat. Going from 6F to 7F will help tremendously with his breeding. Hoping for Joel to get him a garden trip with the outside draw.
Play: WIN #8, 1.2 units
Race 3: Allowance n2x, for 4yo’s and up, going 5 ½F on the GRASS
Top Play: #13 AGENT PETER GRAVES Alvarado-Mott, ML 7-2
When Bill Mott took over, he cut this horse back to sprinting where he has had previous success. Ran a trio of races down in Miami over the winter all going 5F, ran 3rd, 5th and 2nd. In all three he ran with stakes horses and all three were his lifetime best speed figures. With the outside draw and this 5yo gelding having enough tactical speed, he should be able to cross over where he likes and get a perfect stalking trip. They will be blazing up front, so I am curious to see where he gets away. His 2nd last out, he broke kind of slow, saved ground on the turn and had to pass horses on the inside. The eventual winner had clear daylight in the center of the track. I’m hoping the outside trip will get him into the winner’s circle today!
SCRATCHED NO PLAY
Race 4: OC 100000b, for 4yo’s and up, going 6 1/2F on the Dirt
Top Play: #1 KNEEDEEPINSNOW Gaffalione-Shirer, ML 4-1
This lightly raced 7yo, ran 9 of his career 26 races as a 6yo. His last race back in September I believe he just got tired late, so they gave him the winter off. Shirer goes under the radar as a trainer, as he has very few horses in his barn, but does tremendously well with what he has. The time off puts him on a big race today. They claimed this horse for 80k last year in the Keeneland spring meet, and it has ended up being a great claim. Running 2nd to phenom Jackie’s Warrior in the Alfred G Vanderbilt. Ironically there is no early speed in this race, he is the only true sprinter here. I think Tyler will have plenty of viable options when the gate opens, he can send or try and rate off the potential cheap speed. This horse loves the distance, has won easily at Keeneland before, and has shown he can rate breaking from the rail. This is one of my top plays of the day!
Play: WIN #1, 2.1 units
SINGLE in all multi’s.
DD 1-10, 0.1 units. DD 1-3, 0.3 units
$1 Pick 3: 1/2,3,10/7= $3
$2 Pick 3: 1/2,3/7= $4
$1 Pick 6: 1/2,3,10/7/2/4,12/1,7= $12
Race 5: G3 Commonwealth, for 4yo’s and up, going 7F on the Dirt
I will be betting two horses in this race.
Top Play(s): #10 LONG RANGE TODDY Alvarado-Stewart, ML 30-1
#3 GET HER NUMBER Rosario-Miller, ML 4-1
This is one of the toughest races on the card, it’s difficult to find early speed here. A stake race and a sprint is very rare. With that said, you have to go deep in his PP’s but LRT has the early speed to be put into the race. The older this horse got, it appears he is now a better sprinter than a router. This million dollar earner has class, ability to break sharp, an outside draw, a jockey who knows how to WIN and a less than stellar field with no stand out. I’m taking a shot here at 30-1 ML. My other play #3, if Joel is not too far back he will be rolling late!
Play(s): #10 Win 0.3u-Place 0.4u-Show 0.7u
WIN #3, 0.7u
Use 2,3,10 in multi’s.
DD 3-7, 0.5 units, DD 10-7, 0.1 units
$1 Pick 3: 2,3,10/7/2= $3
$2 Pick 3: 2,3/7/2= $4
Race 6: G2 Appalachian, for 3yo fillies, going 1M on the GRASS
Top Play: #7 PLEASANT PASSAGE Gaffalione-Shug, ML 5-2
What a beautiful race, check back on this race down the line and bet these horses back. Some nice filly’s here. I absolutely love this Shug trained filly out of More Than Ready was picking up the pieces with Irad in the Breeders Cup this past November, only to lose to monster European Mediate. Now why is Irad not on today? I don’t think he could get off a Pletcher trained horse in this spot. Tyler says I will gladly step in and take reins back over on this horse, as he won on her debut. He fits this filly like a glove. Break, stalk then pounce in the lane! This home-bred has been training like a freak down at Payson and is itching to get back on the track! This will be my best bet on the card, not sure the price we will get, but with other good horses in here, we could get 2-1/9-5. Which in my opinion will be a gift!
Play: WIN #7, 2.3 units. Exacta 7/2,3,6, 0.3 units. Tri key 7/1,2,3,6, 0.1 unit.
SINGLE in most tickets, but have a few savers involving the #6.
DD 7-2, 1 unit
50c Pick 4: 7/2/ALL/1,7= $12.00
Race 7: G1 Madison, for 4yo’s and up, F+M, going 7F on the Dirt
Top Play: #2 GOODNIGHT OLIVE Irad-C. Brown, ML 2-5
Only 5 horses signed on in this spot, as no one wants to go up against the freak. She galloped in the BC, and one would assume on pace for a similar campaign as a 5yo. Now how can we make money here? Well I have an ice cold exacta, with Miami import #5 Maryquitecontrary. Whose big late strides should fit well here with the early speed in this race.
Play: Exacta straight 2-5, 1 unit. Tri key 2/1,5, 0.3 units
In multi’s, single the 2 or don’t bet them, not much value.
$1 Pick 3: 2/ALL/7= $12
Race 8: G2 Shakertown, 3yo’s and up, going 5 1/2F on the GRASS
Top Play(s): #4 BAKERS BAY Talamo-Drury, ML 10-1
#12 ARREST ME RED Rosario-Ward ML 9-2
This race is IMPOSSIBLE. I will be making two very small wagers here. In the multi’s I will have the all button hoping for chaos! Bakers Bay added blinkers last out on the poly, and closed like a freight train to get up late. This race has the ability to fall apart, so I’m hoping Talamo can pick them up in the stretch. #12-My other pick, picks up Joel for the first time, and he could fit this horse very well to his riding style. Arrest Me Red has class and has won against these before. With the outside draw and tactical speed, he could get a very nice trip here.
Play: Win-Place #4, 0.4 units. Win #12, 0.6 units
In multi’s, SPREAD SPREAD SPREAD. #8 Caravel is facing the boys again and she is vulnerable.
DD 4,12/7, 0.1 units
50c Pick 4: ALL/1,7/1,2/1= $24
Race 9: G1 Blue Grass Stakes, 3yo’s, going 1 1/8 on the Dirt
Top Play: #7 Sun Thunder Geroux-McPeek, 10-1 ML
I absolutely love this horse here. I know he’s running on two weeks’ rest, but did he really run in the Louisiana Derby? Hernandez had him stuck behind horses most of the journey, and never really gave him a chance to run. The jockey changing from him to Flo, I think is a huge upgrade! This horse’s style of making one big explosive run on the backside, should fit Keeneland perfectly with the short stretch run. When he got turned loose in the Risen Star he came up slightly short, but we now know why. He lost to Arkansas Derby winner ANGEL OF EMPIRE, who looks dangerous to win the first Saturday in May. I would add #1 TAPIT TRICE to all of your tickets who is the horse to beat, and is my exacta box here.
Play: Win-Place #7, 1.2 units. Exacta box 1-7, 0.2 units
Use 1,7 in all multi’s.
Let’s CRUSH this late Pick 3, $2: 1,7/1,2/1,6= $16
DD 1,7/1,2 0.3 units
Race 10: OC 100000 n1x, for 3yo’s, going 6F on the Dirt
Top Play: #2 GILCREASE Lanerie-Stall, ML 5-2
This colt ran a very good 2nd to Invulnerable in a N2L allowance, who just wouldn’t stop on the front end. Stopping the timer in 109.2. It was his first start since August, so he should be tighter today. Yes Cox has a debut winner in this race, but if Corey gives him the same trip, possibly even closer. I think we can go by late!
Play: WIN #2, 1.4 units. Exacta box 1,2, 0.4 units
Use 1,2 in all multi’s.
DD 2-1, 0.7 units. DD 2-6, 0.2 units. DD 1-1, 0.4 units.
Race 11: MSW, for 3yo’s, going 1 1/8 on the GRASS
Top Play: #1 MONDEGO Rosario-Clement, ML 5-2
Clement ran this horse 9 furlongs, DEBUT! Very uncommon, obviously this horse is bred to run for days and on the grass. Vasquez broke from the rail and shoved this horse to lead down at Gulfstream. Got pressured all the way around, 22.4/46.1. The eventual winner ran by him, then he ran back on, only to get beaten a neck.
Play: WIN #1, 1.9 units. Exacta box 1,6, 0.2 units
Multi’s SINGLE the 1 in most, but make sure to also have the 6.
