Back today with a free play 1-0 on MLB Free Plays so far this season.
My analysis turns to Yankee Stadium in New York today where the Angels take on the Yanks in AL action at 7:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Yankees -132, Angels +112 and the Over/Under is sitting at 9 juiced to the over at -120.
This contest features a pair of right handers in Griffin Canning and Johny Brito. Last week I had a heavy fade against Johny Brito of the Yankees going up against the Twins. He didn’t make it out of the first inning and surrendered 7 earned runs. Brito is a heavy ground ball pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats with a K/9 Rate at 6.75 across AAA and the majors. Looking at his numbers in AAA last year they looked good on the surface, but his 3.31 was masked by a much bigger xFIP at 4.63. Currently his walk rate at the upper levels is also sitting over 3.1 so the 2.17 K/BB ratio at the upper levels is not a great predictor of future success. His barrel rate is also sitting at 14.7% Most of these came in his last start where he was missing his spots and leaving the ball over he middle of the plate. The starter he will be opposing tonight for the Angels if oft-injured Griffin Canning who hasn’t started more than 17 games in a season in his MLB career and has yet to top 100 innings. He has a career ERA at 4.70 and an xFIP at 4.74 so I think we know what we are getting with Canning. He leaves a lot of balls up and as a result gets lots of Fly Balls. Unfortunately for him he has 14% of those fly balls leave the yard in his career. Canning has a very effective change-up, but the rest of his offerings are very hittable. If he isn’t effective getting the change setup he tends to get hit hard. He faced one of the worst lineups in baseball in his first start giving up two runs to the Nationals. He won’t get off so easy against the Yankees tonight.
These offenses feature three of the elite power hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge (.271BA 5HRs 9RBIs) of the Yankees, and Shohei Ohtani (.300BA 4HRs 11RBIs) and Mike Trout (.293 BA 3HRs 9 RBIs) of the Angels. There’s also some other folks with serious power in Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres. While neither of these offenses has reached their full potential up to this point I think tonight’s starting pitchers as well as a light breeze blowing straight out to center field is a recipe for success for some runs to be scored. There’s no extra value on the F5 number so I like the full game a little better hoping that this game goes a little one-sided early and we see some of the more subpar options out of the pens later in the contest.
I’m Taking the Over 9 Runs -120 for 1.5 Units
