Happy Saturday everyone. Got some great baseball action today on the docket and some pre-Kentucky night action at Churchill Downs. Also some big races overnight at Hong Kong Sha Tin if you’re into that 24 hours straight of being in action kinda thing. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you are interested in any horse tips for tonight. Gonna preview some baseball this evening now though.
My analysis turns to Globe Lufe Stadium in Arlington, Texas today where the Rangers take on the New York Yankees in AL action at 7:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Rangers -162, Yankees +142 and the Over/Under is sitting at 8.5/-110. As far as weather goes, the roof was closed last night, but it’s supposed to be 70 and sunny at game-time tonight with a moderate breeze blowing out to right field. I am guessing the roof will be open.
Well, the Yankees offense got a preview of what it’s like without Aaron Judge last night as they managed only five hits and two runs in 5-2 Loss. The results of the MRI on Judge’s hip haven’t yet been revealed, but they said they found something so I dont expect him back tonight. With Giancarlo Stanton also out the Yankees offense is a shell of it’s normal self. Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero just don’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers in the same way. That being said, both those guys have some pop in their bats and Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres are still in the lineup. The Rangers offense is also without a key cog as Corey Seager remains on the IL. Texas hasn’t missed a beat without him though as they are 4th in MLB in OPS since Seagar went down. Last night, even with Clarke Schmidt striking out 8 Rangers, they beat him around for 10 hits and 5 runs over his 5 innings.
Jhony Brito takes the mound for the Yankees. He hasn’t gone longer than 4.1 IP in his last 3 outings and on the year has a K/9 at 6.11 and a BB/9 at 5.09. That is not a recipe for success and it shows in his 6.11 ERA and 5.56 xFIP. Brito is a ground ball pitcher and his numbers would look even worse if he wasn’t generating them at nearly a 50% clip. He’s also currently rocking a 4.8% HR/FB ratio which is bound to regress. The only thing he really has going for him is this will be the first time everyone in the Rangers dugout will face him. Veteran Nathan Eovaldi is on the bump for Texas. He has been much better than his numbers suggest with a 5.20 ERA overshadowing a 3.24 xFIP. His K/9 is over 10 while his walks per nine sit at only 1.63. He’s had bad luck with a .413 BABIP against, but a lot of that has to do with his hard contact rate allowed being over 45%. He does have quite a bit of history with many of these Yankees hitters, and hasn’t had a ton of success. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .444 on his career off him with a pair of Home Runs in 20 plate appearances. DJ Lemahiue has also homered off him and is a career .333 hitter in 45 plate appearances.
I think the market thinks the sky is falling on the Yanks, but after Jacob Degrom left the game last night they scratched out some offense against Dane Dunning. They still have enough pop in the lineup to score some runs, and they know that they have to step up to fill the void. Eovaldi has solid metrics and should be due for positive overall regression for his ERA, but he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball yet either this year just like Brito. If there’s one thing that always happens in baseball it’s visits for pitchers from the Long Ball Regression Fairies. I think Brito is gonna get hammered and Eovaldi hasn’t been clean yet so the Yanks should be able to get some runs off him.
Gimme the Over 8.5 Runs for 1 Unit.
