Well this game is actually similar to the Gonzaga handicap. On the Indiana side you have some great returning production with De’Ron Davis, Zach McRoberts and Juwan Morgan and on the other side you have Duke that has the greatest recruiting class maybe of all time with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish and Tre Jones. Now Duke is playing at home coming off of a loss and is ready to get back on track. Sounds familiar right? The whole get back up narrative. Well I am not so sure that this narrative comes into fruition against this stellar and hungry Indiana team. If you remember our podcast, we have Indiana as the best team in the big 10 and when they lost to Arkansas, it made this line even sweeter. We have to remember that not only does Indiana have that great returning production and leadership, but they also have top six 5 star recruit themselves in Romeo Langford who has played some pick up ball with some of these Duke guys!
Now Duke has blown out some good teams like Kentucky and San Diego State but when they had to play good defenses such as Auburn and Gonzaga, they seemed to struggle at bit. Auburn ranking 12th in Defense held Duke to 78 points and only lost by 6 while Gonzaga ranking 23rd in defense won outright by 2 points. Indiana ranks 28th in defense and that in itself is a good sign. Let’s dive even deeper. Indiana can shoot the three and for some reason does it very well on the road at 40% success while Duke is only at 33% total. Indiana is also top 18 in defending the 3 only allowing 26.1% while Duke allows 33%. Another glaring thing to me is that Indiana is 2nd in the nation in total Field Goal Percentage at 55% while Duke ranks 71st even with those big guys. Now Duke is 2nd in total rebounds and will need to clean up those misses if they expect to even get close to covering this large spread. I think Indiana’s front court is big enough to gather some of these boards and this should not be a big issue. Now Indiana is turnover prone and ranks 283rd in turnovers per game but they also do very well in forcing turnovers at a positive 3.2 turnover margin. Because of the leadership of Indiana, the defense, and their great shooting percentage, I think this game remains close and Indiana has a shot to win this thing.
Indiana +15 and ML sprinkle
