NFC NORTH: If you thought that the NFC North was a mess last year, prepare for a total train wreck this year. I see problems problems problems with every team here, and will have a hard time trusting any of them. Starting with the Vikings, this was the most overrated team in football from the 2022 season. The Packers lost Aaron Rogers and I am not even sure how bad of a thing that is just yet. The Lions are the favorite but they didn’t do a lot to fix their run defense, while the Bears are a huge question mark with a running quarterback that really hasn’t proven anything as of yet. The NFC North gets it easy playing the NFC South, but on the other hand, they also have to play the AFC West which should be pretty darn good this year. Let’s see what’s going on with these teams.
Divisional Futures: Lions +130 – Vikings +265 – Bears +380 – Packers +500
1. Detroit Lions –
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 O -120
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.8
Schedule: Medium Easy– At large games vs Seattle, @Baltimore, @ Dallas
Schedule last year: Medium
Key Losses: RB Jaamal Williams, CB Mike Hughes, CB Jeffrey Okuda, RB D’Andre Swift, WR DJ Chark, WR Quintez Cephus, WR Jameson Williams (6 games), S DeShon Elliot
Key additions: RB David Montgomery, CB Cameron Sutton, CB Emmanuel Moseley, WR Marvin Jones,
Who they drafted: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam Laporta, S Brian Branch, QB Hendon Hooker
Summary: Last year, the Lions should have made the playoffs over teams like the Giants, Seahawks and the Vikings in my opinion based on their overall strength itself. The best thing that happened to the Lions in the offseason was retaining their offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson. A few other things didn’t really pan out for them. Somehow, a few players on this team thought it was smart to bet on football and it costed three jobs including WR Quintez Cephus who as cut, and a lesser 6 game suspension for rising star receiver Jameson Williams. Maybe this team needs a guy to follow these players on their off days? Maybe at least a life coach or something. Apparently the Calvin Ridley suspension didn’t teach them a lesson. Anyways, I like what the Lions did in the draft for the most part, but it could have went better had they decided to beef up the interior defensive line. I do like Safety Brian Branch picked in the late second round, and he should be an impact player immediately coming inot the season. One also has to really like how this team finished the season last year under Dan Campbell. This coach looks like the leader that this team has needed for so many years. I think the season win total is correct at 9.5 for this team, and the Lions should make the playoffs.
MY Season Number: 9.4
Action: No Play
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 3.75
2. Minnesota Vikings –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 O -130
2022 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 8.32
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Philadelphia, vs San Francisco, @Cincinnati
Schedule Last year: Medium Easy
Key Losses: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, WR Adam Thielen, CB Patrick Peterson, ILB Erik Kendricks, TE Irv Smith, CB Duke Shelly, DE Za’Darius Smith
Key Additions: DC Brian Flores, TE Josh Oliver, CB Byron Murphy, DE Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry
Who they drafted: WR Jordan Addison, CB Mekhi Blackmon, CB Jay Ward
Summary: The Vikings were the luckiest team in football by far last year over-achieving their Pythagorean win total by a whopping 4.68 games. Somehow this team won 10 out of 11 one score games which is insane to me. My big problem with them is that their schedule will be going from pretty easy to a 1st place schedule rated at pretty darn hard. The at large games here are absolutely brutal vs the Eagles, Niners, and Bengals. Another issue that I have with this team is that they really did not draft well in my opinion. I feel that the Vikings needed to get better at linebacker and interior defensive line in order to stop the rushing power of the NFC North. The Vikings also ranked 21st in sacks which was pretty low. Picking up Dean Lowrey and Marcus Davenport feels like more of a band-aid rather than a real solution. This is why I do not understand the Jordan Addison draft pick. The biggest change that I failed to mention in my podcast was the hiring of former head coach and now DC Brian Flores. Maybe he can bring some attitude to this defense, but they will be keeping the same 3-4 scheme. I expect to see a very aggressive blitz heavy defense that will either make A lot big plays or give up big plays. I don’t think that the personnel is there yet so I am very skeptical. Why not get some more help where you need it? In saying all that, this team still has a ton of talent on offense, and if Cousins can stay upright, this team should get to about 8-9 wins in this easier NFC North division.
My season number: 8.16
Action – Strong
Vikings Power Rating: 1
3. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 7.5 juiced to over -135
2022 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 5.09
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Washington, @ Cleveland, vs Arizona
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, T Riley Reiff, DT Armon Watts, WR Byron Pringle, C Sam Mustipher
Key Additions: WR DJ Moore, ILB Tremaine Edmonds, G Nate Davis, DE DeMarcus Walker, LB TJ Edwards, RB Travis Homes, TE Robert Tonyan, DE Rasheem Green, RB D’Onta Foreman
Who they drafted: T Darnell Wright, DL Gervon Dexter SR., CB Tyrique Stevenson, DL Zach Pickens, LB Noah Sewell and a bunch of long shots.
Summary: Hitting the Bears under 6.5 wins last year was easy like Sunday morning. Now there seems to be a ton of optimism in the market jacking the Bears all the way up from worst place in the league to close to the middle at 7.5 wins. Feels like a lot. After trading Roquan Smith to the Ravens, the Bears defense became the worst in the league by far, and many of the guys who were playing wouldn’t even make an average team. The Good news for the Bears is that they were very busy in free agency getting proven linebackers like Edmonds and Edwards as well as drafting some defensive line talent. There are still holes at the edge as well as the safety position where Jackson is getting old, and Jaquan Brisker has some learning to do. They Bears are relying on the talent to come through early and I just do not know if that is possible. The biggest unknown besides Coach Eberflus, is the throwing ability of Justin Fields. Fields could run the ball quite well when forced out of the pocket, but he also was the worst passer in the NFL by far. Let’s hope that the acquisitions of Robert Tonyan, DJ Moore, and last year’s mid season trade to get Chase Claypool helps the Bears make some big plays. With the acquisition of Guard Nate Davis, and the drafting of Darnell Wright, there will be no more excuses for Fields and his throwing abilities. Being that the Bears have one of the easiest schedules in the league, I agree with the win total being set at 7.5, but I certainly would not bet the over.
My season number: 7.55 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: -2
4. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 7.5 juiced to the under -120
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.36
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs LA Rams, @ Pittsburgh, @ New York Giants
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: QB Aaron Rogers, WR Allen Lazard, DE Jarran Reed, DE Dean Lowry, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, FS Adrian Amos, K Mason Crosby
Key Additions: FS Tarvarious Moore
Who they drafted: Edge, Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, WR Jadyen Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, Edge Colby Wooden, QB Sean Clifford and a bunch of guys
Summary: A huge transition year for the Packers for 2023. This team really relied on only two quarterbacks since the early 90s and now the big question mark is if Jordan Love can actually play some ball. Being that the Packers have extended him for 22.5 million, it at least shows some confidence in the kid. One thing that is for sure is that the packers shed a bunch of older weight from their team which makes them rely on the youngsters at the skill positions. The good news for this team is that they return a lot of guys on defense, but they still could use some work against the run where they ranked 2nd to last in opponent rush EPA. Packer fans have to love some of the talent on this defense and this will be what the Packers lean on going into the 2023 season. I think that the most logical outlook that I have for this new Packers team is that they will have a very good, if not great defense with a slow moving run first offense that under bettors love so much. They will not ask too much of Jordan Love even though he has some decent receivers in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
My season number: 6.68 wins
Action: Lean under
Green Bay’s power rating: – -2
