Wells Fargo Championship – Preview & Picks

Tony Finau outdueled Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open to capture his second PGA Tour victory of the season.

We now head to the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. The last time we saw Quail Hallow was earlier this year as it played host to the President’s Cup. Since the course required additional preparation for that event, last year’s Wells Fargo Championship was held at TPC Potomac.

Despite this week’s tournament being an ‘elevated’ event, there are a few major players notably absent. World No. 1, Jon Rahm, and World No. 2, Scottie Scheffler are skipping the Wells Fargo Championship due to ‘load management.’

Tournament Information:

• Dates: May 4th, 2023 – May 7th, 2023
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States
• Course: Quail Hollow Club
• Course Type: Classic / Carolina
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,538 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .125” (all base turf is bermudagrass)
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .350”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 2”
• Bunkers: 61
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 7 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,578 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/ $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2021: +2
  • 2019: -1
  • 2018: +3
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2021: 72.26 (+0.26), Rank 5 of 51
  • 2019: 71.76 (+0.76), Rank 8 of 49
  • 2018: 72.13 (+1.13), Rank 5 of 51

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, May 4th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, May 5th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, May 6th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, May 7th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Sunny 72 F, 7 mp/h WNW, 41% Humidity, 3% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Cloudy 72 F, 6 mp/h SE, 47% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Showers 66 F, 8 mp/h E, 77% Humidity, 68% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 75 F, 6 mp/h ENE, 67% Humidity, 23% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 as the Wachovia Championship. From 2009-10, the tournament was changed to the Quail Hollow Championship. After taking over the main sponsorship of the event two years prior, Wells Fargo attached its name to the event in 2011.

Due to its newly elevated status, the purse has significantly increased from $9 Million last year to $20 Million. With that, the winner’s share has gone from $1.62 Million to $3.6 Million.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 267, Rory McIlroy (2015)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Rory McIlroy (Round 3, 2015)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Quail Hallow is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking fourth of forty-six courses. Over the past two editions (2019 & 2021), the scoring average has been above par both times. In 2021, only six holes played under par which includes the three par 5’s.

In terms of length, Quail Hallow is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,538 yards. It ranks 4th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 33.4 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,578 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers really aren’t a factor here as there are only 61 which ranks as the 11th fewest of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s range between 184 yards and 249 yards. No. 6, No. 13, and No. 17 are three of the more challenging par 3’s as they all had more bogeys than birdies recorded on them in the 2021 tournament.

Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 344 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 506 yards.

The three Par 5’s are No. 7, No. 10, & No. 15. They all played under par in the 2021 tournament. All of these par 5’s are under 600 yards.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18 (“Green Mile”)

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Driving Distance
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x6)
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Comparable Courses and Event History

The Field/ Odds:

There are 156 players in the field at this year’s Wells Fargo Championship Tournament. Twenty-one of the world’s top thirty players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Rory McIlroy (+700)
• Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
• Tony Finau (+1400)
• Xander Schauffele (+1600)
• Viktor Hovland (+1800)
• Jordan Spieth (+1800)
• Cameron Young (+1800)

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Max Homa (’22*, ’19), Rory McIlroy (’21, ’15, ’10), Jason Day (’18), James Hahn (’16), J.B. Holmes (’14), Rickie Fowler (’12), and Lucas Glover (’11)
  • Justin Thomas (2017 PGA Championship)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Brandon Wu

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

Horses for Courses:

[Not including the 2017 and 2022 Wells Fargo Championship that were not held at Quail Hallow]

• Rory McIlroy: 1/ MC/ T2/ T10/ T8/ 1/ T4/ T16/ T8/ 1
• Keith Mitchell: T34/ T8/ T3
• Joel Dahmen: T16/ 2/ T18

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Not including the 2017 and 2022 Wells Fargo Championship that were not held at Quail Hallow]

• Nate Lashley: MC/ T45/ MC
• Mackenzie Hughes: MC/ T59/ MC/ MC
• Stephan Jaeger: MC/ MC
• Ryan Armour: T59/ MC/ MC
• Michael Thompson: T64/ MC/ T11/ T28/ MC/ T42/ MC/ MC
• Denny McCarthy: MC/ MC/ MC
• Kelly Kraft: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Brice Garnett: MC/ MC/ 75/ T60/ MC
• Tyler Duncan: T64/ MC/ MC
• Sam Ryder: MC/ MC

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Max Homa (-8)*
  • Price: 40-1
• 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • Price: 18-1
• 2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Price: N/A
• 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • Price: 500-1
• 2018: Jason Day (-12)
  • Price: 20-1

* Held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

Picks (Outrights):

• Viktor Hovland (+2100) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units

• Sungjae Im (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Jason Day (+2800) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

• Gary Woodland (+7500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Cameron Young (+110) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

• Rickie Fowler (+175) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Picks (Top 30):

• Keith Mitchell (+140) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Emiliano Grillo (+110) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Units

Total Risk on the Wells Fargo Championship: 5.11 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.