NFC South: If you thought that the NFC North was like a game of Yahtzee, it might not be much different down South. More big changes come as every single team in this division, at least from mid-season last year, has a new starting quarterback. I do not remember the last time that this has happened. The good news for the division is that they get to play the NFC North, who is one of the weaker divisions in football. The other good news is that this division gets to play the AFC South, who IS the worst division in football. I mean, what a nice reward for sucking last year! Now they are gifted to play the two easiest divisions in football! Actually, being that you play yourselves twice, you get to play the four easiest divisions in football as well as three at large games! If two or more teams make the playoffs from the NFC South this year, it will be a crying shame. Let’s dig in.
Divisional Futures: (DK) Saints +115, Falcons +250, Panthers +380, Buccaneers +700
1. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 Juiced Towards the Under -125
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.71
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs @ New England, @ New York Giants, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key Losses: DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, DT Shy Tuttle, DE Marcus Davenport, QB Andy Dalton, S Justin Evans, CB Bradley Roby, WR Jarven Landry, RB Mark Engram, SS Daniel Sorensen
Key additions: QB Derek Carr, DE Nathan Shepard, DT Khalen Saunders, RB Jamaal Williams, S Johnathan Abram
Key draft picks: DL Bryan Bresee, Edge Isaiah Foskey, RB Kendre Miller, OT Nick Saldiveri, QB Jake Haener
Summary: Out of all of the preseason bets that should have cashed, the Saints to win the division was the main one. Choking that game vs the Buccaneers away made me want to puke, and it also reminded me of my long life as a Chicago Cubs fan. The Pythagorean win total of 8.71 was the highest in the NFC South showing the huge underachievement last year. Here is the good news. This schedule might be the easiest that I have ever seen in football. The highest power rated team that the Saints play for 2023 is the Jacksonville Jaguars with the Minnesota Vikings in second! I mean, I have never seen a team have it this easy. In saying that, I have some issues with this Sean Payton-less team. First of all, they did shed some big salary, but also lost a lot of key guys to their defense. The Saints also could have helped fix their offensive line, but decided to instead try and replace David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport. The Derek Carr acquisition is the elephant in the room. Baby you could drive my Carr should be an upgrade of Andy Dalton, but who knows how quickly he can grasp the offense. I also think that this team drafted pretty well and there could possibly be a Jake Haener siting at some point during the season. The season win total on this team shot up like a rocket ship, and it is now close to my number so no play, but I will also say that I would not be surprised if this team doesn’t live up to expectations. Just like they didn’t last year.
My number is: 9.36 wins
Action: No Play
New Orleans Power Rating: 1
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.14
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Washington, @ New York Jets, @ Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward, LB Rashaan Evens, S Erik Harris
Key additions: S Jessie Bates, CB Jeff Okudah, DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, QB Taylor Heinicke, DE Calais Campbell, CB Mike Hughes, OLB Bud Dupree, CB Trey Flowers, WR Mack Hollins and a ton of other dudes.
Key draft picks: RB Bijan Robinson, T Matthew Bergeron, Edge Zach Harrison.
Summary: Gonna start out by saying that this Falcons team has really underachieved last year. This team was very good with the lead being that their run game was so good ranking second in the league, but unfortunately, the dirty birds now rank 25th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 31st at passing the ball. THIS IS WHY I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE BIJAN ROBINSON DRAFT PICK! Now just because they did some weird stuff in the draft doesn’t mean that this team didn’t do well in free agency. There are literally tons of talent coming into the Falcons this season. We should see an almost completely revamped secondary as well as some new guys on the defensive line in David Onyemata and Calais Campbell. What this team seemed to ignore some was at the inside, and outside linebacker positions. The biggest change for the dirty birds is the emergence of Desmond Ritter who actually finished the season pretty strong beating the Cardinals and the Buccaneers. I think that the real question is if there is an early drop off here between him and Mariota. I really think not, and if the fumble luck turns their way, I could see a successful season here with the second easiest schedule in the NFL.
My Number: 9.07
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -1.5
Action: Find an 8 and take it over and take them to make the playoffs at +180
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.26
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Philadelphia, @ Buffalo, @ San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Tom Brady, OC Byron Leftwich, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, S Keanu Neal, CB Sean Bunting, LT Donavan Smith, S Mike Edwards, QB Blain Gabbert, T Josh Wells
Key additions: OC Dave Canales, QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, S Ryan Neal
Key draft picks: DT Calijay Kancey, T Cody Mauch, and a bunch of prayers
Summary: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Or something like that. Needless to say, this Buccaneers team lost a ton with Tom Brady retiring, but let’s face it, Tom last year looked a little bit more like Joe Montana on the Chiefs rather than the GOAT of the national football league. For a minute there, I thought that maybe the Kyle Trask era was about to start, and then all of a sudden, they started feeling dangerous and decided to pick up Baker Mayfield. The confusing thing to me is that they haven’t traded off some of their leftover salary waste from their super bowl season? I mean, do you really think that this team will contend? There should be a fire sale on guys like Mike Evans, Shaq Barrett, Chris Godwin and Devin White. Lots of age right there and it just feels to me that maybe Tampa takes an early shot at being good. After they realize that they are not good, they start tanking to potentially win the lottery for a good quarterback like Caleb Williams. No chance that I can take the over here, but it is also very had to take an under with any teams in a division playing the NFC North and the AFC South. Gonna pass for now.
My Number is: 5.63
Tampa Bay Power Rating: -3.25
Action: Strong lean under
4. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Easy – @Seattle, @Miami, vs Dallas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Steve Wilks, WR DJ Moore, QB Sam Darnold, QB Phillip Walker, ILB Corey Littleton, RB D’Onta Foreman
Key additions: Coach Frank Reich, WR Adam Thielen, RB Miles Sanders, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, DT Shy Tuttle, C Bradley Bozeman, QB Andy Dalton, WR DJ Chark,
Key draft picks: QB Bryce Young, WR Jonathan Mingo and a bunch of hope
Summary: Lots of changes for Carolina this year and we can start right away with their new head coach. I remember being excited for the Colts when they hired coach Frank Reich, but after a few years, I have soured on him some. Now that Carolina has scooped Reich up, and let Steve Wilks go, I feel a little bit confused. Wilks revived this team last year, and for a minute, I thought they might win the division. What makes Frank the better choice here? Don’t get me wrong, Reich had his share of bad injury luck in Indianapolis over his tenure, but now he has to start from square one with a brand new quarterback to try and revive this team. Carolina did well in free agency this year grabbing some savvy veterans in WR Adam Thielen and S Vonn Bell, but I still think that their offensive line could use some work. Also, I am very concerned for the size of their new quarterback Bryce Young in the first year of this system. Carolina gave up a lot to get into the number 1 draft position including their star WR in DJ Moore. Their is no go to player now on this team that a young quarterback might need to bail him out of rough situations. Getting that final win last year vs the Saints actually hurt this team, and now their at large is much more difficult in facing Dallas, Miami and Seattle. The Panthers will start out as a fade team to me, and let’s see how long it takes for them to gel.
My Number: 6.98
Carolina Power Rating: -4
Action: Lean under
