the Memorial Tournament – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Emiliano Grillo backers last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. After blowing a two-stroke lead on the 18th, he was able to rebound and defeat Adam Schneck in a playoff. He earned his second career PGA Tour win with his last coming in 2015 at the Fortinent Championship.

We now head to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Patrick Cantlay reigns supreme in terms of course history at Muirfield Village with two victories. In his six appearances at this event, Cantlay has four top-10 finishes. He’s also made the cut each time as well. Cantlay has yet to win this season but has been playing well as of late with eight top-20 finishes in his last nine starts. Earlier this month, he switched caddies to Joe LaCava, who was on Tigers bag for a while. LaCava has also worked with Freddy Couples and Dustin Johnson as well. We’ll see if Cantlay can finally grab his first win since the 2022 BMW Championship.

Jon Rham also has some pretty impressive course history here as well. He won at Muirfield back in 2020 and finished tied for tenth last year. Rahm was also on his way to another victory here in 2021 but was forced to withdraw before the final round with a six-stroke lead after testing positive for COVID-19.

Billy Horschel will look to defend his title at Muirfield Village this week, which was also his last win on the PGA Tour. In his sixteen starts this season, he has more missed cuts (6) than top 20 finishes (4).

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: June 1st, 2023 – June 4th, 2023
• Location: Dublin, Ohio, United States
• Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,571 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass .090”
• Fairways: Bentgrass .350″
• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / rye / fescue 4”
• Bunkers: 68
• Water Hazard(s): 13 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter:  11.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/ $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 550
• Field/ Cut: 120 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +2
  • 2021: +2
  • 2020: +3
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 73.06 (+1.06), Rank 8 of 50
  • 2021: 72.97 (+0.97), Rank 10 of 51
  • 2020: 74.01 (+2.01), Rank 2 of 41

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, June 1st, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, June 2nd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, June 3rd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
  • CBS – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, June 4th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
  • CBS – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 90 F, 7 mp/h ESE, 46% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Sunny 91 F, 9 mp/h NE, 39% Humidity, 2% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 90 F, 11 mp/h NE, 40% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 88 F, 9 mp/h E, 44% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Memorial Tournament was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus, who was also one of the original architects of the course. Nicklaus spent his early years in Columbus so this course, which is just 20 miles north, holds a special place in his heart.

Muirfield Village has hosted the tournament since its debut. In 2020, Muirfield Village hosted two back-to-back tournaments due to COVID scheduling conflicts. The first event was the Workday Charity Open and the following tournament was the Memorial Tournament. Collin Morikawa defeated Justin Thomas in a playoff in the Workday Charity Open and then lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff a week later.

Following those two events, the course underwent a rather large renovation. They lengthened the course from 7,392 yards to the current yardage of 7,533. In addition to length, they also increased the difficulty by adding some new greenside and fairway bunkers. Most of the greens have been reconstructed as well with new bentgrass.

The Memorial Tournament is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 268, Tom Lehman (1994)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, John Huston (Round 2, 1996)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Muirfield Village is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only five holes had a scoring average under par which included the four Par 5’s.

In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,571 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 33.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 68 bunkers which ranks as the 17th most out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 12, & No. 16, range between 180 yards and 220 yards. At the 2022 Memorial Tournament, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.

No. 12, 180 Yards, Par 3: “Depending on the pin, the choice here is either a short iron into the left side of the two-tiered green or take one more club to find the right side of the green. Obviously, the tee shot must cover the large lake which also guards the right side as well. The back bunker is no bargain and is not a place you want to be.”

No. 16, 220 Yards, Par 3: “Patrons might not notice the difference in the 16th hole, but players certainly have. After we redesigned the hole prior to the 2013 Presidents Cup, it just didn’t play like I wanted or what the Memorial field liked. The green wouldn’t hold shots, especially on the back left. It turned out that the left side pitched away from you, and that should not have been the case. So, we took eight inches from the middle of the green and added eight inches to the left. Now, although golfers are using the same club as before, the green runs toward them and not away from them, and thus holds shots better.”

Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 360 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 503 yards.

No. 17, 503 Yards, Par 4: “Cosmetically, you might not notice a lot of changes, but trust me, it plays much differently, especially off the tee. The fairway used to be too wide and swung out to the right and then back. We took the bunker on the left in about 20 yards, and then the one on the end of the fairway we moved in about 4 or 5 yards. That leaves about 16 or 17 yards between bunkers so, naturally, you have to be more precise off the tee. If you get into those bunkers, you’ve got a little work left. A small creek runs in front of the green that has been softened a little bit to create more pin placements. Two bunkers protect the left and right side of the putting surface. But it’s the tee shot that is a bit more challenging.”

The four Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 7, No. 11, & No. 15. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.

No. 5, 547 Yards, Par 5: “The fifth hole is actually shorter than before. After moving the tee down and to the left, we knocked down the hill on the right for better visibility off the tee. The creek still splits the hole, forcing a decision off the tee. I would say that 95 percent of the players—maybe even more—will hit the ball down the fairway on the left side, probably with a 3-wood. There will be the occasional player who will try to take it over the water, leaving himself with a short iron into the green. Have at it! It is there for the taking if you want it, but the penalty is severe. The green, which has been moved back 30 yards and to the left, is a bit smaller and narrower and is protected by a bunker front left and two little ones on the right. The more aggressive you get, the tougher the third shot. If you lay it back for a wedge third shot, you are looking right up the green. If you try to get a little more aggressive and get up closer to the green, it could be good, but if you go long, the pitch is over a bunker to a green running towards the water.”

No. 11, 588 Yards, Par 5: “Players face the same tee shot, with the creek on the left and bunker on the right. If you fit a driver between the two and hit it long, you can get home in two. If you want to play it as a three-shot par 5, the players might go hybrid, iron, and wedge into the green. The green was moved to the left to avoid the trees on the right. Before the renovation, the trees would hang out there, and players would sometimes have to slice a shot into the green, which isn’t the play that should be required. The green is more of a bowl, meaning if you miss it long or to the right, the chip is a little more severe coming down the hill into the green. Hit the green in two, and there are a lot more opportunities for eagles here.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x4)
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Memorial Tournament. Each of the world’s top-five players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Scottie Scheffler (+600), finished tied for 3rd last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has now finished inside the top 5 in each of his last three events. Scheffler will look for his third win of the season this week at Muirfield Village where he has finished 3rd and tied for 22nd in his two prior appearances here.
• Jon Rahm (+700) struggled in his last start on Tour finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship. Despite that poor showing, Rahm still has the most wins on the PGA Tour this year with four. He’ll make his fifth appearance at Muirfield Village this week where he won back in 2020. In 2021, he was leading this event by six strokes heading into Sunday but was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19.
• Patrick Cantlay (+1000) has not won on Tour this year despite ten top-20 finishes in thirteen starts. However, he does have some great course history at Muirfield Village winning back in 2021 & 2019. In his most recent start here (2022), he finished tied for 3rd.
• Rory McIlroy (+1200) tied for seventh in his last start on Tour (PGA Championship). He has only one win this season which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina. McIlroy will make his twelfth appearance at Muirfield Village this week. He has yet to win here with his best finishing coming back in 2016 (T4).
• Xander Schauffele (+1400) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at Muirfield Village. Schauffele has been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 5 in three of his last four starts on Tour.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Billy Horschel (’22), Patrick Cantlay (’21, ’19), Jon Rahm (’20), Jason Dufner (’17), William McGirt (’16), David Lingmerth (’15), Hideki Matsuyama (’14), Matt Kuchar (’13), Justin Rose (’10)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Maverick McNealy (Undisclosed), Taylor Moore (Undisclosed)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Patrick Cantlay: T35/ 4/ 1/ T32/ 1/ T3
• Xander Schauffele: MC/ T14/ T13/ T11/ T18
• Scottie Scheffler: T22/ T3
• Jon Rahm: MC/ 1/ WD/ T10
• Sahith Theegala: T32/ T5

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

• Michael Kim: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Justin Lower: MC/ MC
• Nate Lashley: MC/ MC
• J.J Spaun: MC/ MC
• Cameron Davis: MC/ MC/ T53
• Brandt Snedeker: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ WD/ MC/ T60
• Tom Hoge: T13/ MC/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
  • Price: 60-1
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
  • Price: 22-1
• 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
  • Price: 22-1
• 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
  • Price: 18-1
• 2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-15)
  • Price: 50-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Patrick Cantlay (+1000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.80 to win 8.00 Units

• Xander Schauffele (+1400) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.38 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Tyrell Hatton (+105) – DraftKings/ Caesars/ PointsBet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units

• Corey Conners (+175) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

• Si Woo Kim (+190) – DraftKings/ FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units

• Sahith Theegala (+200) – DraftKings/ Caesars/ PointsBet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Memorial Tournament: 5.38 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.