Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals takes place tonight between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Matchups:
Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Series: Florida Panthers – Vegas Golden Knights (Game 1)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Florida Panthers | +115 | +110 | +1.5 (-230) | o5.5 (-120) |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -135 | -130 | -1.5 (+195) | u5.5 (+100) |
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
- Vegas Golden Knights (-130) – DraftKings
When looking at these two teams, there’s not much of a difference between them. Both have had their goaltenders step up providing some much-needed support. However, I would give the slight edge to Vegas in terms of their defensemen and depth scoring, both of which are critical in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have been solid at home as of late and have shown their ability to outplay their opponents. While Florida did sweep their last series, they were overpowered in terms of expected goals. The difference maker was again, stop me if you heard this before, Sergei Bobrovsky. Vegas’ forward core has done a great job of getting bodies in front of the net and taking advantage of rebounds which is the formula for success when trying to beat a hot goaltender. While I expect this to be a back-and-forth series, I think Vegas starts off Game 1 with a win at home.
Leans:
- Florida Panthers/ Vegas Golden Knights 1P Under 1.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Player Props to Target:
[All stats provided by linemate.io]
- Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 Points (+105) – DraftKings
Ivan Barbahsev is on the top line for Vegas with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. That line has been great for the Golden Knights and currently ranks number one in terms of expected goals for (xGoals For) with 8.9 throughout the playoffs. Barbashev has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. His ice time has also been increasing as the playoffs have gone on. While he isn’t on the first Power Play Unit for Vegas, he is on the second which should see some action tonight as Florida has multiple penalties in five of their last six games. If you’re looking for some value tonight, I think Barbashev is worth a look given his other linemates’ odds to record over half a point are -150 (Marchessault) and -195 (Eichel).
- Sergei Bobrovsky over 29.5 Saves (+110) – DraftKings
I expect the Golden Knights to come out firing at home tonight. Through their first seventeen games of the playoffs, they’ve averaged 30 Shots on Goal a game. Florida has also allowed the most shots on goal against per game this postseason averaging 37.3. On the road, that number jumps up to 41.9.
The line tonight is set at 29.5 saves which is low when compared to the last four games when it varied between 30.5 and 31.5. In each of his last four games, he’s gone over this number.
Series Futures:
- Series Total – 6 Games (+205)
- Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.05 Units
- Series Total – 7 Games (+200)
- Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.00 Unit
I expect this series to go at least 6 games. These teams match up very well and play a similar style of hockey. While I expect Vegas to win their first-ever Stanley Cup, I think it takes them at least 6 games to close out this pesky Panthers team.
Series Futures (if you’d like to back Florida):
If you’re looking to bet Florida to win the Stanley Cup, here’s an alternative angle you may want to take a look at. Florida has two front runners to win the Conn Smythe which are Sergei Bobrovskiy and Matthew Tkachuk. Bobrovsky currently leads all goaltenders this postseason with a +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The last goalie to win the Conn Smythe was Andrei Vasilevskiy back in 2021. Before that, a goalie hadn’t won this award since 2012. Matthew Tkachuk has 21 points through 16 games in the playoffs and is only behind Roope Hintz. If Florida does go on to win the Stanley Cup, I believe the trophy will go to one of these two players so Option B may be a better angle given the value.
Option A: Single Bet – Panthers Series Future
- Florida Panthers to Win the Series (+105 – DraftKings)
- Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.05 Units.
Option B: Two Bets – Conn Smythe Angle
- Sergei Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe (+210 – DraftKings)
- Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.05 Units
- Matthew Tkachuk to win the Conn Smythe (+290 – DraftKings)
- Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.45 Units
Series Futures (if you’d like to back Vegas):
- Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe (+425 – DraftKings)
- Jonathan Marchessault to win the Conn Smythe (+700 – DraftKings)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
