The RBC Canadian Open – Preview & Picks

Viktor Hovland wins the Memorial Tournament outdueling Denny McCarthy in a playoff! It was nice to see him grab a win after struggling Sunday at the PGA Championship. Hovland now has two wins on Tour this season which matches his total from last year. As if we haven’t heard enough great stories about him, he caddied for one of his college teammates less than 24 hours following his win at Muirfield at one of the U.S. Open qualifiers.

No rest for the champion.

Less than 24 hours after his victory @MemorialGolf, Viktor Hovland is caddying for former @OSUCowboyGolf teammate Zach Bauchou at U.S. Open Final Qualifying in Columbus. pic.twitter.com/j6LdZxOGGt

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 5, 2023

We now head to Oakdale Golf & Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Let’s start with arguably the biggest news in the history of professional golf with the new merger between the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour. I won’t get into it during this article but expect something later in the week when we hopefully have some more details.

Rory McIlroy will look to become the first golfer to win the RBC Canadian Open three straight times. The last time a golfer won an event on the PGA Tour three times in a row was Steve Stricker from 1009-11 at the John Deere Classic. So far this season Viktor Hovland (WWT Championship), Sam Burns (Valspar Championship), and KH Lee (AT&T Byron Nelson) have all tried to accomplish this feat but fell short.

Ludvig Aberg will make his PGA Tour debut this week after finishing as the No.1 player in the final 2023 PGA TOUR University Ranking. He’s been ranked as the No.1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking since March and has earned his Tour card for the remainder of this season and next. He’s won several awards including the Jack Nicklaus Award, the Fred Haskins Award, and two Ben Hogan Awards. Aberg is the only player to have won the Ben Hogan Award in back-to-back years outside of Jon Rham.

Michael Block is also in the field this week after earning an exemption from his performance at the PGA Championship. He recently played in Charles Schwab Challenge where he missed the cut. Block also tried to qualify for the U.S. Open next week at Lambton Golf & Country Club on Monday where he came up short.

This is the first time that the RBC Canadian Open will be held at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. Ian Andrew renovated the course in 2018 restoring the course to its previous conditions while adding several new tee boxes as well. In addition to playing host to this year’s event, the RBC Canadian Open will also be held here in 2026.

The 123rd U.S. Open also takes place next week at Los Angeles Country Club. Several big-name players have elected to skip this event in preparation for that. This will also be the first time that the U.S. Open is held at this course.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: June 8th, 2023 – June 11th, 2023
• Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Course: Oakdale Golf & Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 72 (3x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,264 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass / Poa annua
• Fairways: Bentgrass
• Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass 4″-5″
• Bunkers: 59
• Water Hazard(s): – (In-Play on 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,620,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 70 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +1
  • 2019: -2

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, June 8th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, June 9th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, June 10th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:30 PM – 5:30 PM ET
  • CBS – 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, June 11th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
  • CBS – 2:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Cloudy 63 F, 10 mp/h NNE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 9 mp/h SE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 71 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 59% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Showers 68 F, 11 mp/h ENE, 69% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The RBC Canadian Open was on hold during the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to the pandemic. However, it returned last year at St. George’s Golf and Country Club where Rory McIlroy captured his second title.

The Canadian Open was first played 118 years ago, in 1904. It is the third oldest continuously running tournament on the PGA Tour.

Oakdale Country Club will host the RBC Canadian Open for the first time. The club was founded in 1926 and hired Stanley Thompson to design the first nine holes. A few years later, he would complete an additional nine holes. In 1957, Stanley Thompson designed the final nine holes on the property. Most recently in 2018, Ian Andrew completed a renovation restoring the course to Thompson’s vision while making several other necessary changes.

 

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 258, Rory McIlroy (2019)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 60, Carl Pettersson (3rd round, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC), Justin Rose (4th round, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oakdale Country Club should be one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. While we don’t know a ton about this course, the past few winners of the RBC Canadian Open have had scores around -20. I would expect that trend to continue this week placing a premium on birdies. The course setup is a little untraditional as the layout for this week is comprised of three nine-hole courses (Thompson, Homenuik, & Knudson).

In terms of length, Oakdale Country Club is one of the shorter courses on Tour measuring 7,264 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in length. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 59 bunkers which ranks as the 11th fewest out of 46 courses.

The three Par 3’s, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 14, range between 172 yards and 208 yards. 

Five of the twelve Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 354 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 489 yards. None of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards.

The three Par 5’s are No. 7, No. 12, & No. 18.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass / Poa Annua)
• Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 (x5)
• Birdies or Better
• Driving Accuracy
• 3-Putt Avoidance
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s RBC Canadian Open. Five of the world’s top-twenty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+450) is the two-time defending champion of the RBC Canadian Open. He’s coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship. In his ten starts on the PGA Tour this season he has only won once which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) missed the cut in his debut at the RBC Canadian Open last year. He’s been playing some great golf this year having only missed the cut once which was at the Valero Texas Open. Since that event, he has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last five starts on Tour. During that span, his best finish was at the Wells Fargo Championship (T3).

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) will make his third appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He missed the cut in his debut (2016) but finished tied for tenth last year. Fitzpatrick won his second PGA Tour event earlier this season outdueling Jordan Spieth in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. After a missed cut at the PGA Championship, he rebounded nicely in his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament finishing T9.

Cameron Young (+1400) comes into the RBC Canadian Open struggling having missed the cut in each of his last two starts. His putting was mainly to blame as it was atrocious in both events. Outside of that, Young has been close to his first career PGA Tour victory finishing second at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Event and third at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his first time playing in the RBC Canadian Open.

Sam Burns (+1400) finished tied for fourth in his RBC Canadian Open debut last year. After missing back-to-back cuts at the Wells Fargo Championship and PGA Championship, Burns has been playing better as of late. In his most recent start, he finished T16 at the Memorial Tournament. Prior to that, he finished T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19), Brandt Snedeker (’13), Scott Piercy (’12), Sean O’Hair (’11)

• Canadians in the Field:
  • Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson, Mike Weir, Ben Silverman, Aaron Cockerill, Wil Bateman, Myles Creighton, Taylor Durham, Michael Gligic, David Hearn, Daniel Kim. Stuart Macdonald, Drew Nesbitt, Etienne Papineau, Roger Sloan, Sebastian Szirmak, Johnny Travale

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Troy Merritt, Anders Albertson, Dylan Frittelli, Stephan Jaeger, Philip Knowles, Davis Riley, Byeong Hun An, Sam Stevens, Luke List, Zac Blair, Ben Griffin, Charley Hoffman, Davis Thompson, Joseph Bramlett

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]

• Rory McIlroy: 1/ 1
• Shane Lowry: MC/ T12 / T2 / T10
• Hank Lebioda: T14/ T28

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Finishes at the RBC Canadian Open, First time at Oakdale Golf & Country Club]

• Sunghoon Kang: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Brice Garnett: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Derek Lamely: MC/ MC
• Joseph Bramlett: MC/ MC
• Martin Trainer: MC/ MC
• Cameron Champ: MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19) at St. George’s Golf and Country Club
  • Price: 10-1
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22) at Hamilton Golf and Country Club
  • Price: 10-1
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
  • Price: 7-1
• 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
  • Price: 125-1
• 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12) at Glen Abbey Golf Course
  • Price: 125-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

• Sam Burns (+1400) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Sahith Theegala (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Eric Cole (+220) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the RBC Canadian Open: 3.16 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.