CFL Week 2 Breakdown with Eric Rocco
Thursday June 15th, 7:30pm ET
Calgary at Ottawa +6.5, 43.5
Ottawa +6.5 (FanDuel -110) risk 1.65u to win 1.5u
The Redblacks of Ottawa head home for their home opener to face Calgary. Both teams are off losses in week 1 with disappointing play from their QB’s, but if you watch the film, Arbuckle did not play anywhere near as bad as the numbers would suggest. In interception #1, Acklin was wide open down the field and pulled up on his route instead of continuing to run, making the ball look overthrown for an INT. The next two picks were also thrown down the field into double coverage, with 1 of the 2 just being a glorified punt. What I found fascinating about Ottawa was the heart and poise they showed after being down 10-0 just 9 minutes into the game. In drive #1 for Montreal, they went right down the field and scored. After a 2 and out for Ottawa, the Alouettes returned the punt into the redzone but were held to a field goal. After that it was all the Redblacks defense, forcing 6 sacks, and essentially stopping Montreal on the ground all game. I absolutely loved the intensity from Ottawa, on the road none-the-less, and the defensive play calling from their DC Barron Miles, initiating the blitz at all the right times. I think their defense takes this game over causing key turnovers in plus territory making the offense’s life much easier. I also expect a better game from Arbuckle as he will utilize Acklin’s speed to beat the Stamps and continue drives on 2nd down. The books are giving Ottawa zero respect in their home opener, so let’s take advantage of a bad line and make this our first unit upgrade of the season on the Redblacks getting the points.
Friday June 16th, 9:00pm ET
Winnipeg at Saskatchewan +6.5, 47.5
Winnipeg -6.5 (BetRivers -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u
The Blue Bombers made quite an opening statement in their home opener last week vs the Ti-Cats. Yet the final score doesn’t do quite the justice it should be receiving. Winnipeg was up 27-4 at half, but due to some sloppy play in the second half they let Hamilton crawl back into it with a defensive and special teams TD. Most of Hamilton’s yards took place with explosive plays when facing a big deficit. Now I’m not saying the Bomber defense played anywhere near as good as we’ve been accustomed to in recent years, they most surely struggled. I do believe between the sloppy play and near Hamilton comeback it was a wake-up call for them. Which is why I am on the Blue Bombers in week #2. I don’t usually recommend backing a near touchdown road favorite, but there are always exceptions to the rule. I believe this is the correct spot to throw the ’book’ out the window and back Winnipeg. Saskatchewan escaped with a narrow victory in Edmonton vs the bottom feeder Elks. Yes, I have stated Edmonton is going to be better this year, but that’s foreseeing to be seen yet. While Edmonton was better offensively, defensively not so much. The Roughriders were able to run for 135 yards on them, which is virtually where all their offense came from. Running for 135 yards on Winnipeg will be a whole different story, which puts the pigskin completely in Trevor Harris’s hands. Keeping up with Zach Collaros will be virtually impossible as his success vs the Riders has been second to none for a long time now. You must go back to October 5th, 2019, the last time the Riders were able to beat Winnipeg. In those previous 7 meetings Winnipeg is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, with an ATS margin of nearly +12 points. Bombers QB Zach Collaros was brilliant in week 1 and now gets to face a defense that he has averaged 266 yards per game in his last 7, while throwing 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. With 3 of the INT’s coming in one contest. In 2022 he was perfect; in 3 games he threw 10 TD’s and 0 interceptions. Winnipeg was 4-1 last season as touchdown or more favorites. I have no problem backing them in this position, so we are laying the points on the road for a full unit.
Saturday June 17th, 7:00pm ET
Edmonton at B.C. -7, 45.5
B.C. ML -280 (DraftKings) risk 2.1u to win 0.75u
Am I really backing back-to-back favorites? It’s opening night for the Lions, they get an extra 2 days to prepare and get healthy, and they face arguably the worst defense in the league. You bet I am, but not quite to the same degree in this one as I’m not convinced B.C. will cover the 7 points. On paper how is Edmonton going to keep up with this Lion offense. It surely won’t be defensively, or will it? The Elks got shredded on the ground in week 1 vs the lowly Roughriders, and now must face Taquan Mizzell who ran for 81 yards in Calgary week 1, as well as dual threat QB Vernon Adams who can take off at any time. Edmonton will need to keep a spy on him to prevent that from happening, which in return should open the field for WR Dominique Rhymes and company. Yes, I am much higher than most on Edmonton this year and I believe they will start to improve in certain areas, but beating the likes of the Lions compared to the Riders is night and day. Look I was completely wrong about Adams so far, although it has only been one week, I don’t see the narrative changing, yet. I think Edmonton will get far behind in this one, then Cornelius and Lewis will start to mount a comeback but come up short. This is why I will back B.C. on the money-line as I think the point-spread is spot on the number. I have no trouble laying the big juice as I don’t see in any realm the Elks winning this game outright. Let’s go LIONS!
Sunday June 18th, 7:00pm ET
Hamilton at Toronto +2, 46.5
1H: Hamilton -0.5 (SuperBook -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5
Hamilton ML -130 (BetRivers) risk 1.3u to win 1u
Again, the Tigercat’s have one of the more intriguing headlines of the weekend. Bo-Levi and company head to Toronto to face the defending champion Argonauts. Yet, personnel might look slightly different than the 4 contests last season, where Toronto was victorious in 3 of the 4. Mitchell is now the head of the offense in Hamilton who played well ‘enough’ in week 1 and Bethel-Thompson, Toronto’s 22’ QB is heading for the NFL, or at least trying to. Which leaves Chad Kelly as their 2023 QB. It’s also his season debut as the Argo’s got the week 1 bye. I think this is a tough spot for Toronto. They catch a Tigercat team who got rid of the nerves, ‘week 1 mistakes’, were able to start to gel as the new pieces start to form some chemistry and their game speed will be much higher. Butler dazzled in his Ti-cat debut running for 66 yards on 11 carries and scoring his first Hamilton touchdown. He was unable to get anything going through the pass game, as Winnipeg kept him contained. Facing Toronto could be a different story, as 2022 Tigercat RB Don Jackson had two explosive games via the air vs Toronto last season. Game 1 was able to grab 8 receptions for 67 yards and a TD, and game 3, had 6 catches for 52 yards. Look for a big game with Butler on Sunday night! I will look to back Hamilton in the 1st half, due to the game speed will be difficult for the Argo’s early. I will also back them on the ML for the game Sunday, looking for Bo-Levi Mitchell to get back to his winning ways.
