The John Deere Classic – Preview & Picks

Rickie Fowler wins the Rocket Mortgage Classic at 14-1! He had been trending towards a win this season so it was great to see him finally break through and capture his first victory in four years.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The John Deere Classic has been moved up on the PGA Tour schedule. While it’s played annually in July, it’s previously been the event before the Open Championship. It was the final chance for a player not already exempt, to earn entry into the Open if he finishes in the top five. Since 2008, the John Deere Classic had sponsored a charter flight that leaves the Quad Cities post-tournament and lands in Britain the following day. However this year, most players will already be overseas as the Genesis Scottish Open is now the event before the Open Championship.

This year’s event has a particularly weak field this year given its new position on the PGA Tour schedule. Only one of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field.

J.T. Poston will look to successfully defend his title this week. He captured his second career PGA Tour victory at TPC Deere Run last year having previously won the 2019 Wyndham Championship. Poston has been struggling as of late missing the cut in five of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. His best finish the season was tied for sixth at The American Express.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: July 6th, 2023 – July 9th, 2023
• Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Course Type: Midwest/ Parkland
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,289 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: L-93 bentgrass .100”
• Fairways: Southshore bentgrass .390”
• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / fescue 4”
• Bunkers: 76
• Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 3 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $7,400,000/ $1,332,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -3
  • 2021: -4
  • 2019: -3
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 69.88 (1.12), Rank 34 of 50
  • 2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 41 of 51
  • 2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 35 of 19

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, July 6th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, July 7th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, July 8th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, July 9th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 11 mp/h NNW, 65% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 6 mp/h E, 60% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: PM Thunderstorms 76 F, 10 mp/h SE, 68% Humidity, 45% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 77 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 78% Humidity, 54% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The John Deere Classic, then known as the Quad Cities Open began in 1971 as a “satellite event” for the PGA Tour. A year later, it became an official PGA Tour event.

From 1971 to 1974, the event was played at Crow Valley Country Club. Following that, it moved to Oakwood Country Club where it was held until 1999. At the turn of the century, TPC Deere Run became the host site.

History was made here back in 2013 when nineteen-year-old Jordan Spieth became the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931.

In 2021, Lucas Glover birdied five of his last seven holes to win the John Deere Classic. Before that, his last win on the PGA Tour was at the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2011. Glover became just the seventh player to win in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.

After the John Deere Classic wrapped up in 2021, the course underwent a major renovation. The 1.8 million dollar project involved new tee boxes (No. 1), the reconfiguration of numerous bunkers and, provided the course with a better drainage system.

Something else to note is that five of the last eleven winners of the John Deere Classic were first-time TOUR winners.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 257, Michael Kim (2018)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 59,  Paul Goydos (1st Round, 2010)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Deere is one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. Three of the past four winners have finished with a score of -21 or less. Each of the past four editions of this event has had a scoring average below par.  In 2022, only six holes had a scoring average over par which included three of the four Par 3’s.

In terms of length, Detroit Golf Club is average measuring 7,289 yards. It ranks 23rd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 9th of 46, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,550 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 76 bunkers which ranks as the 22nd most out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 7, No. 12, & No. 16, range between 158 yards and 226 yards. At the 2022 John Deere Classic, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par (No. 16).

No. 3 ‘Stone House’, 186 yards, Par 3: “This uphill Par 3 will play much longer than it reads on the scorecard. A set of bunkers guard the right side, while a bent grass collection area is ready to grab the shots that go long and left. The green runs from front to back, making
club selection crucial to hitting the green in regulation.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.00.

No. 7 ‘Timber Ridge’, 226 yards, Par 3: “This is the longest of the 3 pars on the course, and the most picturesque. Into the normal prevailing wind, this hole will test the accuracy of even the best players. Carry it to the green or carry the bunker on the right and let the ball feed down to the green. You choose your plan of attack.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.125.

No. 12 ‘Master Stroke’, 215 yards, Par 3: “A long par 3 through a tree-lined fairway to a well-bunkered green. This is one of the bigger greens on the course… but don’t miss it, there is trouble all around it.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.029.

No. 16 ‘Mother Earth’, 158 yards, Par 3: “Most likely, the “Signature Hole.” This picturesque, short par 3 sits on a bluff 40 feet above the Rock River. It is guarded in front
by a deep ravine and to the right by a large bunker. To the left is the Rock River and all
the perils it commands. It may be short, but it is dangerous.” 2022 Scoring Average: 2.993.

Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 361 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 503 yards.

No. 9 ‘Howitzer’, 503 yards, Par 4: “The longest par 4 and one of the most testing holes on the course. A level landing area for your drive will leave you with a shot through the trees to a long green that has bunkers on both sides.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.208.

No. 14 ‘Deere Run’, 361 yards, Par 4: “This is the ultimate risk/reward hole. It is drivable but the perils are many. Go for it and miss left and you are in the “valley of sin.” A tightly-mowed area that will leave you with a blind shot to a small, well-protected green. Go long and you will be lost down a 60-foot bluff.” 2022 Scoring Average: 3.743.

No. 18 ‘Conquistador’, 476 yards, Par 4: “A great finishing hole that will put a premium on driving accuracy. Hit it long and straight to avoid the fairway bunker on the left, but you must keep it on the left side of the fairway. From there, it is a long shot to a deep and narrow green that is guarded on the right by two large bunkers and on the left by a long and narrow pond.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.208.

The three Par 5’s are No. 2, No. 10, & No. 17. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.

No. 2 ‘Colonel Davenport’, 561 yards, Par 5: “A downhill tee shot to a fairway some 50 feet below makes this hole play shorter than its listed length. A good drive and it should be reachable in two. The entrance to the green is tight and is guarded by wetland bunkers
and a stand of trees. The smallish green was designed to make pinpoint accuracy a must.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.533.

No. 10 ‘Cor-Ten’, 596 yards, Par 5: “Not real tight on your first and second shots, but they better be long. The green is very small for a par 5 and there is no room for error on your third shot. Bunkers protect the left side while a pond protects the right.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.813.

No. 17 ‘Stadium’, 569 yards, Par 5: “Probably reachable in two for the longest hitters, but they will have to have a perfectly-placed tee shot to do it. The fairway is tight and tree-lined, and the green is guarded in front by bunkers. The green is elevated slightly with bent grass collection areas all around. Miss the green, and you will have a tough chip to the hole.” 2022 Scoring Average: 4.615.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Birdies or Better
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
• Proximity: 100 – 125, 125 – 150 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s John Deere Classic. Only one of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Denny McCarthy (+1400) will make his fifth appearance in the John Deere Classic this week. He had his best finish last year at this event finishing tied for sixth. McCarthy has yet to win this season but comes into this event in great form finishing 2/ T20/ T7 in his last three starts on the PGA Tour.
• Russell Henley (+1600) has finished inside the top 20 in eight of his last nine starts on the PGA Tour. He also won earlier this season at the World Wide Technology Championship. In his last two appearances at TPC Deere Run, Henley has finished 2nd and tied for 11th.
• Cameron Young (+1600) will make his debut at the John Deere Classic this week. He started off the season strong with a couple of runner-up finishes but has been in poor form as of late. In his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, he has missed the cut twice and has not finished better than T32. His last finish inside the top 10 was back at the Masters in April.
• Ludvig Alberg (+2200) has finished T25/ T24/ T40 through his first three weeks as a PGA TOUR member. At both the RBC Canadian Open (his first start as a pro) and the Travelers Championship, Aberg finished inside the top 25. Through 36 holes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he was just a shot back of the lead.
• Adam Hadwin (+2200) missed the cut at the John Deere Classic last year but finished T8 in 2016 and T18 in 2015. He’s coming off a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • J.T. Poston (’22), Lucas Glover (’21), Dylan Frittelli (’19), Michael Kim (’18), Ryan Moore (’16), Zach Johnson (’12), Jonathan Byrd (’07), Sean O’Hair (’05)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Webb Simpson, Charley Hoffman, Vincent Norman, C.T. Pan, Brandon Wu

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Russell Henley		T11		2
Patton Kizzire	T16	T11			T30	T25
Adam Svensson	T24			T18
Seamus Power		T8		T61	T16	T25

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
David Lingmerth	MC	MC	MC	T72
Ryan Armour	MC	MC	MC		MC		T60
Joseph Bramlett	MC	MC
Ryan Brehm	MC	MC			MC
Martin Trainer	T63	MC	MC
D.A. Points	MC	MC		MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Harry Higgs	MC	MC
Jonas Blixt	MC	MC						T62

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
  • Price: 50-1
• 2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A
• 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
  • Price: 90-1
• 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
  • Price: 300-1
• 2017: Bryson Dechambeau (-18)
  • Price: 55-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts on PGA Tour):

• 2022: J.T. Poston
  • T2 – Travelers Championship
  • MC – RBC Canadian Open
  • T37 – the Memorial Tournament
  • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • T9 – Wells Fargo Championship

• 2021: Lucas Glover
  • T41 – Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • MC – Palmetto Championship
  • T37 – the Memorial Tournament
  • T8 – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • MC – Wells Fargo Championship

• 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A

• 2019: Dylan Frittelli
  • T46 – 3M Open
  • T46 – Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • MC – Travelers Championship
  • 59 – RBC Canadian Open
  • MC – PGA Championship

• 2018: Michael Kim
  • MC – A Military Tribute
  • MC – Quicken Loans National
  • MC – Travelers Championship
  • T18 – FedEx St Jude Championship
  • MC – AT&T Byron Nelson

• 2017: Bryson Dechambeau
  • T14 – The Greenbrier Classic
  • T17 – Quicken Loans National
  • T26 – Travelers Championship
  • MC – U.S. Open
  • MC – FedEx St Jude Championship

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Denny McCarthy (+1600) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

• Adam Schenk (+3100) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units

• Doug Ghim (+6000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

• Chez Reavie (+6500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.13 to win 8.45 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.93 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Emiliano Grillo (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

• Eric Cole (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

• Stephan Jaegar (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Callum Tarren (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the John Deere Classic: 4.93 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.