ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Tom Kim backers at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. He was able to successfully defend his title and will look for the elusive three-peat next season.

Adam Hadwin (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.48 units on the week.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The 2023 ZOZO Championship is the fourth event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.

Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.

The 5th edition ZOZO Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 5th edition, this will only be the fourth time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the ZOZO Championship took place in California at Sherwood Country Club due to the pandemic travel restrictions.

Keegan Bradley returns to Japan to defend his title at the ZOZO Championship. In addition to winning this event, he also won the Traveler’s Championship. This will be the first time he tees it up since the TOUR Championship.

Sungjae Im returns to action after winning the team gold medal with Si Woo Kim at the Asian Games two weeks ago. He also earned a silver medal in the individual event.

Hideki Matsuyama has not played on TOUR since he withdrew after the first round of the BMW Championship citing a back injury. He also won this event back in 2021.

Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Rickie Fowler return to action after a disappointing trip to Rome.

The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: October 18th, 2023 – October 22nd, 2023
• Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
• Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,079 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Zoysiagrass
• Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
• Bunkers: N/A
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,500,000 /$1,530,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 78 Pros | No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Hole 18 (repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 69.15 (-0.85), Rank 30 of 50
  • 2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Rank 11 of 50
  • 2019: 69.53 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41
• Historic Cut Line:
  • N/A

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Wednesday, October 18th into Thursday, October 19th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 AM – 3:00 AM ET
• Round 2: Thursday, October 19th, 2023 into Friday, October 20th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Friday, October 20th, 2023 into Saturday, October 21st, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Saturday, October 21st, 2023 into Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 77 F, 11 mp/h SW, 63% Humidity, 6% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 77 F, 17 mp/h SW, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 66 F, 7 mp/h NNW, 56% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 67 F, 6 mp/h WNW, 49% Humidity, 2% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.

Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Andrew Putnam (Second Round, 2022)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.

The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.

Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.

No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).

No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x4)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 78 players competing in this year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Only nine of the world’s top forty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Xander Schauffele (+700) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. He’s finished inside the top-10 twice before at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.

Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. His best finish at this event was in 2021 when he finished T7. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.

Sungjae Im (+1400) has played in this event three times before. His best finish at this event was in 2019 when he finished T3.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Keegan Bradley (’22), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
	Narashino Country Club	Narashino Country Club	Sherwood Country Club	Narashino Country Club
	2022	2021	2020	2019
Cameron Champ	8		T8
Keegan Bradley	1	T7		T13
Xander Schauffele	T9	T28	T17	T10
Hideki Matsuyama	T40	1	T28	2

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
	Narashino Country Club	Narashino Country Club	Sherwood Country Club	Narashino Country Club
	2022	2021	2020	2019
Ryo Ishikawa			T63	T51
Shugo Imahira	78	T18	T66	T59

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 40-1
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 16-1
• 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
  • Price: 28-1
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 33-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Keegan Bradley
  • T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)

• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama
  • T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
  • T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)

• 2020: Patrick Cantlay
  • T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)

• 2019: Tiger Woods
  • T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2022: Keegan Bradley
  • 2021 – T7
  • 2019 – T13

• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama
  • 2020 – T28
  • 2019 – 2

• 2020: Patrick Cantlay
  • Debut at Event

• 2019: Tiger Woods
  • Debut at Event

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Sungjae Im (+1400) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

• Keegan Bradley (+2200) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Cameron Champ (+5000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Adam Svensson (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

• Joel Dahmen (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: 3.11 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.