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Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest -1 O/U 46.5
This is an interesting game to me because I do not understand this line. What give’s Pitt the right be to be at almost pick-em after how they have performed throughout the season. Now Pitt did come off the bye week benching Phil Jurcovic for Christian Veilleux, but it’s not like he’s doing all that great either with a 45% completion percentage and 3TDs with 2 picks. The Deacons rank 63rd in offensive success rate and 42nd on defense while Pittsburgh ranks 108th on offense success rate and 34th on defense respectively. The only way that Pittsburgh moves the ball is on the ground, and Wake Forest has a nice opponent 3.95 yards per rush which tells me that the Deacons can stop it. Also, last week’s win for Pittsburgh against Louisville was misleading as Pitt was out-gained 444 to 288 yards yet won the game 38-21. I think Wake gets a big home win here and Dave Clauson turns around his bad start to the season.
Wake Forest -1 – 3 stars
Penn State vs Ohio State +4 O/U 46.5
This should be the best game of the weekend. Ohio State and Penn State are top four in most of the reputable public power ratings, and this game will certainly make an impact. Let’s look at these teams side by side. Ohio State has a net yards per play advantage of .83, but Penn State beats them in offensive success rate ranking 16th to Ohio State’s 26th and defensive success rate ranking 1st to Ohio State’s 29th. A big consideration though is Strength of schedule. This easily goes to Ohio State who played at Notre Dame, and vs Maryland while Penn State’s toughest game was vs Iowa who got injured that game, and hosting West Virginia. Penn State is 6-0 ATS, but let’s face it, James Franklin is a bully who likes to put it. To be Frank, James Franklin beats on the step children of the poor and he usually loses when he faces a top 10 team. Looking at the last 10 matchups vs Ohio State, Penn State has only won once, although I must say that they have covered seven out of ten times and always as a dog. One reason why Ohio State is favore d here is that they have the better yards per play is that they are the explosive team. They have guys like Marvin Harrison Jr and Julian Flemming, although they are a bit beat up in the skill positions with Emeka Ebuka, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Willams banged up. Penn State likes to sit on the ball and just go for 1st downs ranking 132nd in explosive plays. They might work against bad defenses but Ohio State’s defense ranks 2nd in yards per play right behind Penn State and 3rd in yards per point. Even with Ohio State’s injuries, I believe that they can dig deep and win this game. My number is right at the spread at Ohio State by 4.75 points, but I also have noticed that Ohio State has taken some time to get into games and their first half play hasn’t really been there thus far. I am gonna do what I always do in this situation and take Penn State 1st half +2.5 and Ohio State 2nd half -1.5.
Penn State 1st half +2.5 – 2 stars
Ohio State 2nd half -2.5 – 1.5 stars
