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LA Chargers vs the New England Patriots +5.5 O/U 39
Sometimes you have to get a little dirty to find some value. Bailey Zappe will be starting for the Pats this week. Does it really matter? Probably not. Both him and Mac Jones are both as incompetent, but maybe, just maybe if they can try and not turn the ball over, then this team could make something happen. The Chargers have a clear advantage on offense ranking 10th in offensive EPA to the Patriots at 30th. The big issue here is that the Chargers are very very banged up. From a wide receiver core of studs, LA lost Mike Williams earlier in the year as well as Josh Palmer most recently. Rookies Quentin Johnston and Darius Davis will have to mother a load while a banged up Keenan Allen will try his best to play injured. The Chargers offensive line is banged up some as well. The Patriots aren’t exactly healthy either on offense, but let’s face it. They never were healthy this season and are quite used to it by now. From a defensive perspective, believe it or not, the Patriots are better than the Chargers ranking 17th in defensive EPA to the Chargers ranking 27th. I think as long as the Patriots play smart football, they can win this game outright if not keep it within the number.
Patriots +5.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Jets up to +8.5 with the Jaguars to -2.5 – 3 stars. The Jets will play well today after being embarrassed last week vs a division rival. The Falcons do not blow out anyone. The Jaguars should get the easier win today being that the Bengals are toast this season without Joe Burrow.
