College Football Bowl Games December 27th – December 28th Info, Plays, & Leans – Sports Betting

ALL information and spreads subject to change!

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl:  Tulane vs. Virginia Tech -10.5 O/U 44.5
Location:  Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Tulane’s Motivation: Medium – They lost the AAC championship game, but they at least get to play a Power 5 team.

Virginia Tech’s Motivation:  Medium – Not a great bowl game but they will be happy to play in one again.   It’s been a minute.

Home: A little for Virginia Tech as alumni should be lurking.  1 point.

Key Guys Missing:  

Virginia Tech:

• TE Dae’Quan Wright (431 snaps)

Tulane:

• Head coach Willie Fritz has taken the HC job at Houston.
• Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle, defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, defensive line coach Gerald Chapman, wide receivers coach Derrick Sherman and analyst James Ross (promoted to inside linebackers coach) will all follow Fritz to Houston but will coach in the bowl game.
• Troy head coach Jon Sumrall will replace Fritz as Tulane’s head coach.
• Starting WR Chris Brazzell (616 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting S DJ Douglas (652 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting EDGE Devean Deal (488 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting EDGE Keith Cooper Jr. (599 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting TE Alex Bauman (656 snaps) to transfer.
• Backup QB Kai Horton (150 snaps) to transfer.
• Quarterback Michael Pratt (706 snaps) could hit the portal as well, which would likely leave Justin Ibieta (6 snaps) as the starter if Horton also doesn’t play.
• Recent injurie to WR Lawrence Keys III (440 snaps).

Net YPP:  Tulane +.02

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Virginia Tech Offense	5.91 (52)	4.7 (35)	138.07 (61)
Tulane Defense	5.11 (29)	3.08 (9)	127.43 (50)
Tulane Offense	5.86 (55)	4.13 (84)	151.98 (24)
Virginia Tech Defense	5.18 (35)	4.2 (69)	127.53 (51)

 

Key Stats:  Nothing more key than all of the transfers.

Coach Bowl ATS:

None

Verdict:  It’s hard to put a real number on this.  Tulane just has way too many transfers as well as backup coaches.   Not that Virginia Tech is full of juggernauts, but I have no problem waiting on this one or sitting it out.

Play:  Lean Virginia Tech

Duke’s Mayo Bowl:  West Virginia vs North Carolina +6.5 O/U 54
Location:  Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time:  5:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

West Virginia’s Motivation:  High – This team did well this year and I expect them to put up a plethora of points.

North Carolina’s Motivation:  Medium – Will Drake May even Play?  (see what I did there?)

Home:  UNC is only 140 Miles from Charlotte compared to 375 for West Virginia.

Key Guys Missing:

North Carolina:

Transfer Portal

• TE Kamari Morales (327 snaps)
• CB Tayon Holloway (349 snaps)
• DB D.J. Jones (198 snaps; will still play in bowl)

NFL Draft

• Starting QB Drake Maye (909 snaps)
  • Backup Conner Harrell (21 snaps) will start.
• Starting LB Cedric Gray (880 snaps)
• Starting C Corey Gaynor (912 snaps)
• Starting WR Tez Walker (534 snaps)

Injuries

• Starting TE John Copenhaver (513 snaps)
• Starting WR Bryson Nesbit (500 snaps)
• Starting CB Alijah Huzzie (727 snaps)
• S Will Hardy (246 snaps)
• Starting WR Nate McCollum (368 snaps) also didn’t play in the finale with a lower-body injury.

All players listed above will miss North Carolina’s bowl game with injuries.

 

West Virginia:

• DL Mike Lockhart (409 snaps)
• WR Devin Carter (483 snaps) played only four snaps in the finale against Baylor is injured.
• C Zach Frazier (806 snaps), one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft, will miss the bowl following surgery.

Net YPP:  UNC +.89

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
West Virginia Offense	6.24 (36)	5.26 (12)	134.27 (68)
North Carolina Defense	5.52 (64)	4.13 (64)	132.11 (66)
North Carolina Offense	6.79 (11)	5.18 (16)	149.6 (32)
West Virginia Defense	5.85 (88)	4.35 (83)	138.28 (84)

 

Key Stats:   Nothing more Key than Drake Maye and a ton of guys leaving the team early.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Mack Brown, North Carolina: 2-2 (at North Carolina)
• Neal Brown, West Virginia: 2-2-1

Verdict:  West Virginia gets lucky to face backup QB Graham Conner Harrell, but we really do not know how good he is.   Lots of big names opting out for the draft, but I still think UNC an run the ball some.   I kinda like the over here.  West Virginia knows how to pile on the points while their defense is pretty suspect.  UNC Should have enough guys left to ball some on offense

Play:   Over 54

Holiday Bowl:  No. 15 Louisville vs. USC +7 O/U 59
Location:  Petco Park, San Diego, California
Time:  8 p.m. ET
TV Channel:  FOX

Louisville’s Motivation:  High – Every team wants to beat USC’s ass.

USC’s Motivation:  Low – Nothing ventured, nothing gained.   This team actually thought they had playoff chances.

Home:  USC gets a little bump for home field in San Diego which is about a 2 hour drive south.

Key Guys Missing

Louisville:

• S Josh Minkins (227 snaps) to transfer.
• EDGE Kameron Wilson (197 snaps) to transfer.
• RB Jawhar Jordan (will miss bowl) and enter draft.
• WR Jamari Thrash (will miss bowl)  and enter draft.

USC:

• DL De’jon Benton (223 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 10)
• Starting QB Caleb Williams (761 snaps) to hold out.
  • Expect Miller Moss and/or Malachi Nelson to start.
• RB MarShawn Lloyd (398 snaps) to hold out.
• WR Brenden Rice (469 snaps) to hold out.
• Watch for S Calen Bullock (845 snaps)
• Starting RG/RT Jarrett Kingston (668 snaps) missed the finale with an injury.

Net YPP:   Louisville +.01

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Louisville Offense	6.26 (35)	4.67 (38)	146.23 (41)
USC Defense	6.17 (113)	4.78 (110)	150.9 (122)
USC Offense	7.31 (3)	4.9 (27)	167.21 (7)
Louisville Defense	5.1 (28)	3.32 (19)	120.39 (23)

 

Key Stats:  USC’s defense ranks 115th in drop-back EPA so they can’t stop that either.

Coach Bowl ATS:  

• Jeff Brohm, Louisville: 4-2
• Lincoln Riley, USC: 2-3

Verdict:  The real question is, how good is the backup quarterbacks?  Nobody really knows.  I am also a little surprised by now to not see more holdouts for USC.  Louisville should be able to move the ball here at will from both a rushing and a passing perspective.  One thing you have to respect is the talent on this USC roster.   I am going to wait to see if this number gets any better before I make a play.

Play:  Lean Louisville -7

Texas Bowl:  No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M -2 O/U 53
Location:  NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time:  9 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Oklahoma State’s Motivation:  Medium High – I think they want to try and beat an SEC team.

Texas A&M’s Motivation:  Medium – Not a great bowl but they are rebuilding for next year with a new coach in Mike Elko.

Home:  Texas A&M is only 95 miles away.   Give them 2.5

Key Guys Missing:

Texas A&M:

• Head coach Jimbo Fisher has been fired.
• Texas A&M AD Ross Bjork said Elijah Robinson (recently hired as Syracuse DC) will continue to serve as the interim head coach through the bowl game.
• QB Max Johnson (North Carolina; expect third-string Jaylen Henderson to start again)

Transfers:

• Starting RT Chase Bisontis (544 snaps)
• Starting EDGE Fadil Diggs (466 snaps)
• Starting S Bryce Anderson (545 snaps)
• Starting DL Walter Nolen (365 snaps)
• Starting CB Tyreek Chappell (488 snaps)
• Starting CB Deuce Harmon (394 snaps)
• Starting WR Ainias Smith (559 snaps)
• Starting WR Evan Stewart (403 snaps)
• Starting LB Edgerrin Cooper (609 snaps)
• Starting DT McKinnley Jackson (430 snaps)
• Starting RG Layden Robinson (691 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• C Bryce Foster (753 snaps)
• WR Moose Muhammad (347 snaps)

Oklahoma State:

• WR Blaine Green (193 snaps) to transfer.
• WR Jaden Bray (485 snaps) to transfer.

Net YPP:   Texas A&M +1.48

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Oklahoma State Offense	5.82 (59)	4.86 (31)	119.68 (106)
Texas A&M Defense	5.01 (25)	3.27 (17)	131.42 (63)
Texas A&M Offense	5.89 (54)	3.94 (92)	148 (36)
Oklahoma State Defense	6.41 (121)	4.64 (100)	148.35 (114)

 

Key Stats:   Nothing is more damning than the number of kids opting out for Texas A&M.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: 10-7

Verdict:  So why is this spread so small?  Well a couple of things.   Oklahoma State was a bunch of frauds this year and overachieved the most out of any school.  Next, Jaylen Henderson who is the 3rd string quarterback for A&M is probably better than starter Max Johnson, and finally, this is a home game for the Aggies.  Even with all of the factors favoring A&M, I am still very concerned for their performance here.  This might be an audition to the top rated athletes that are left, or they might not take it seriously at all.  Mike Gundy will have his kids fired up here for sure after that performance vs Texas.   I think a small play on the Pokes is ok.

Play:  Oklahoma State +2

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl:  No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College +10 O/U 49
Location:  Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Time:  11 a.m.
TV Channel;  ESPN

SMU’s motivation:  Medium Low – They deserved a much better bowl than this.

Boston College’s Motivation:  Medium High – Literally staying at home, but they haven’t went bowling in a while.

Home:  Boston College is playing pretty much at home here.

Key Guys Missing:

SMU:

• SMU QB Preston Stone is out for the year. Kevin Jennings will start again.

Boston College:

• Starting S Cole Watson (544 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11.
• Stud starting CB Elijah Jones (524 snaps) was lost to a season-ending injury suffered in Week 10.
• Starting CB Jalen Cheek (367 snaps) didn’t play in the finale.
• BC previously lost offensive starters WR Ryan O’Keefe (204 snaps) and TE George Takacs (421 snaps) to season-ending injuries

Net YPP:  SMU +2.08

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
SMU Offense	6.43 (26)	4.48 (53)	156.08 (18)
Boston College Defense	6.55 (124)	5.39 (129)	144.29 (105)
Boston College Offense	5.41 (83)	4.59 (42)	118.71 (109)
SMU Defense	4.49 (7)	3.16 (12)	116.04 (13)

 

Key Stats:   Boston College ranks 129th in defensive EPA

Bowl Coach ATS:

Rhett Lashlee, SMU: 0-1

Verdict: Boston college should be toast here.  I know that SMU lost their quarterback, but backup Kevin Jennings looked just fine vs Tulane in the AAC Championship.  We just have to hope he doesn’t throw a few picks as he did that game.  SMU should be able to name the final score here.  Take the Mustangs, but you might get a better number based on home field for BC.   Wait it out some.

Play:  SMU -10 or better

Pinstripe Bowl:  Rutgers vs. Miami (Fla.) +1 O/U 40.5
Location:  Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Time:  2:15 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Rutger’s motivation:  High – Good opponent and and close to home.

Miami’s motivation:  Medium Low – When is this team ever motivated?

Home:  Rutger’s back yard only 47 miles away!

Key Guys Missing:  

Rutgers:

• Starting TE Johnny Langan (558 snaps) will have season-ending surgery.
• Starting LB Tyreem Powell (371 snaps) lost to injury after Week 8.
• Star CB Max Melton (622 snaps) heads to the draft.

Miami:

• Starting QB Tyler Van Dyke (660 snaps; confirmed to Wisconsin)
• WR Colbie Young (599 snaps) to transfer.
• EDGE Jahfari Harvey (313 snaps) to transfer.
• LB Corey Flagg (392 snaps) to transfer.
• Expect Jacurri Brown to start at QB with backup Emory Williams injured.
• Starting CB Daryl Porter Jr. (447 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 10.
• S Kamren Kinchens (638 snaps) to draft.
• DT Leonard Taylor (341 snaps) to draft.
• S James Williams (730 snaps) to draft.
• It’s also worth monitoring OL Javion Cohen (771 snaps).

Net YPP:  Miami +1.39

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Rutgers Offense	4.91 (118)	4.21 (79)	105.8 (127)
Miami (Florida) Defense	5.2 (37)	3.17 (13)	124.84 (38)
Miami (Florida) Offense	6.51 (22)	5.2 (15)	142.26 (50)
Rutgers Defense	4.99 (23)	4.01 (58)	121 (27)

Pop-Tarts Bowl:  No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State -2.5 O/U 47.5 Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time:  5:45 p.m.
Channel:  ESPN

NC State’s Motivation:  High – Great opponent in a great location

Kansas State’s Motivation:   Medium – They had higher aspirations this year.   Should have not choked against Missouri.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

NC State:

Transfers:

• QB MJ Morris (didn’t play after Week 10)
  • Brennan Armstrong should start
• RB Michael Allen (190 snaps)
• WR Terrell Timmons (216 snaps)
• WR Porter Rooks (286 snaps)
• C/LG Lyndon Cooper (311 snaps; lost job midway through season)
• Starting NT CJ Clark (451 snaps)

Kansas State:

Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Will Howard; expect Avery Johnson to start
• RB Treshaun Ward (332 snaps)
• Starting S Kobe Savage (711 snaps)
• Starting CB Will Lee (453 snaps)
• EDGE Nate Matlack (324 snaps)
• Offensive coordinator Collin Klein has accepted the OC job at Texas A&M.

Opt-Outs

• WR Phillip Brooks (756 snaps)
• TE Ben Sinnott (769 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• OG Cooper Beebee (870 snaps)

Injuries

• Starting DT Uso Seumalo (413 snaps) was on crutches for the finale. As a result, Damian Ilalio (157 snaps) saw an increase in playing time.
• LB Jake Clifton (227 snaps) was lost for the season in Week 11 after Kansas State already lost starting middle linebacker Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom early in the season to injuries.

Net YPP:  Kansas State +.31

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
North Carolina State Offense	5.23 (100)	4.04 (87)	128.2 (84)
Kansas State Defense	5.7 (75)	4.55 (92)	120.74 (25)
Kansas State Offense	6.03 (48)	4.86 (30)	142.98 (47)
North Carolina State Defense	5.33 (50)	3.71 (34)	120.49 (24)

 

Key Stats:  None

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Dave Doeren, North Carolina State: 5-3
• Chris Klieman, Kansas State: 1-2

Verdict:  I think that this bowl is an absolute mess.  Lots of opt outs and lots of questions at quarterback.   In saying that, I think Dave Doeren is the safer bet in this bowl but there is no reason to rush into this.   Gonna lean NC State due to the experience at quarterback with Brennan Armstrong at the helm, but I also don’t need to rush into anything.

Play:  Lean NC State +2.5

Alamo Bowl:  No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 12 Oklahoma +3 O/U 62
Location:  The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Time:  9:15 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Arizona’s Motivation:  High – Hell yes!   Getting to a bowl game and facing Oklahoma is great for this School.

Oklahoma’s Motivation:  Low – This team was thinking playoffs until they blew it vs their in state rival.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Arizona: 

• Stud LT Jordan Morgan (787 snaps)

Oklahoma:

Transfers:

• OC Jeff Lebby took the head-coaching job at Mississippi State.
• Starting QB Dillon Gabriel
  • Jackson Arnold likely starts
• RB Tawee Walker (252 snaps; second-leading rusher)
• RB Marcus Major (215 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
• LG Cayden Green (568 snaps)
• DB Key Lawrence (398 snaps; played less late in year)

Injuries

• Lost top receiver Andreel Anthony (215 snaps) to season-ending injury after Week 6.

Opt-Outs

• OT Tyler Guyton (663 snaps)
• C Andrew Raym (874 snaps)

Net YPP:  Arizona +.19

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Arizona Offense	6.82 (10)	4.8 (33)	166 (8)
Oklahoma Defense	5.37 (56)	4.08 (60)	115.57 (12)
Oklahoma Offense	6.74 (13)	4.45 (55)	172.06 (4)
Arizona Defense	5.27 (42)	3.44 (25)	127.41 (48)

 

Key Stats:  Losing OC Jeff Lebby and QB Dillon Gabriel is big.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Jedd Fisch, Arizona: 0-1
• Brent Venables, Oklahoma: 1-0

Verdict:  The motivation should be much larger for Arizona as they get to face a former top 4 team and national championship contender.  Add in the fact that the starting quarterback and OC is gone for the Sooners.   I will say that Sooner QB Jackson Arnold was a very high recruit and might have beaten Gabriel out for the starting position for 2024 had Gabriel stayed anyways.   Oklahoma lost some guys but they still have more Talent than AZ.  I would lay three max.

Play:  Arizona -3

References:

https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/every-college-football-head-coachs-against-spread-record-bowl-games-01hgtsm2jmen

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more