2024 Genesis Invitational – Preview & Picks

The WM Phoenix Open encountered several challenges last week, including weather delays, unruly fan behavior, and a Sunday finish coinciding with the Super Bowl. Despite these issues, one positive highlight was the thrilling playoff between Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman. Taylor showcased his ability to remain composed under pressure, clinching victory in a playoff for the second time (2023 RBC Candian Open).

NICK TAYLOR IS CLUTCH! pic.twitter.com/UdJpm2JwZ7

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 12, 2024

Unfortunately for us, we had Nick Taylor T40 instead of an outright selection. In addition to cashing on Nick Taylor, we also hit Tom Hoge T40 as well. Our closest outrights were Sam Burns T3 and Jordan Speith T6. It’s been a constant theme this season with our outright selections finishing runner-up.

Nick Taylor continued the streak of longshots winning the early events. We’ve now had triple-digit winners in each of the past six events.

Tournament	Winner	Pre-Tournament Odds
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor	175-1
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Wyndham Clark	100-1
Farmers Insurance Open	Mattieu Pavon	140-1
The American Express	Nick Dunlap	500-1
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray	400-1
The Sentry	Chris Kirk	200-1

 

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The PGA Tour heads to the iconic Riviera Country Club for The Genesis Invitational. This will be the third Signature Event of the 2024 season.

@PGATOUR debut ➡️ Tournament Host

Hear @TigerWoods talk about the beginnings of his legendary golf career, all starting on the greens at Riv. pic.twitter.com/hDjoiHRGUT

— The Genesis Invitational (@thegenesisinv) January 12, 2024

This week, Tiger Woods, the Tournament host, is set to begin his 2024 season at Riviera Country Club, marking his official return to the PGA TOUR since the 2023 Masters following his recovery from right ankle surgery. Accompanying Woods on the course will be veteran caddie Lance Bennett, known for his previous work with golfers such as Sungjae Im and Davis Riley This season, Bennett will be working full-time for Tour rookie Adrien Dumont de Chassart. Additionally, Woods will unveil his new logo collaboration with Taylormade.

Tiger Woods and TaylorMade officially unveil the Sun Day Red logo.

The line will feature apparel and footwear. pic.twitter.com/81zCkoQuJ7

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 13, 2024

This year, the cut line has undergone a slight adjustment, introducing an additional qualification method for advancing to the weekend rounds. Players who rank within the top 50 (and ties) will secure automatic qualification for the third and fourth rounds of the Genesis Invitational. Moreover, any players within 10 shots of the lead will also advance to the subsequent rounds. This new format will be implemented not only at the Genesis Invitational but also at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Memorial Tournament.

Max Homa and Adam Scott are the only defending champions in this limited-field event. Notably, the last two victors of this tournament, Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann, have both transitioned to the LIV Tour.

In 2009, the tournament introduced an unrestricted exemption aimed at honoring a player who represents the advancement of diversity in golf. This exemption, known as the Charlie Sifford Memorial Exemption, pays tribute to the legacy of Charlie Sifford, the first African-American golfer to earn PGA Tour membership in the early 1960s. Chase Johnson, recipient of the Charlie Sifford Award this year, will be competing in the tournament. Johnson made his PGA TOUR debut at the 2021 Memorial Tournament and has since played in three other PGA TOUR events.

An exciting twist for this event is that any player who hits a hole-in-one will be rewarded with a Genesis vehicle. Last year, sponsor invite Tae Hoon Kim achieved this feat with an ace on the par-3 16th hole.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 15th, 2024 – February 18th 2024
• Location: Pacific Palisades, California, United States
• Course: Riviera Country Club
• Course Type: Classical
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,322 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa annua .100”
• Fairways: Kikuyu .350”
• Rough: Kikuyu 2”
• Bunkers: 58
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$4,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 70 Players
• Cut: Top 50 & Ties / Any Players within 10 shots of the lead – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 71.07 (+0.07), Rank 16 of 49
  • 2022: 70.46 (-0.54), Rank 21 of 50
  • 2021: 71.21 (+0.21), Rank 17 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: E
  • 2022: -2
  • 2021: -3

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, February 15th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 10:30 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM

• Round 2: Friday, February 16th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 10:30 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM

• Round 3: Saturday, February 17th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 4: Sunday, February 18th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 9:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 64 F, 9 mp/h WSW, 75% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Cloudy 68 F, 9 mp/h WSW, 69% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Cloudy 64 F, 9 mp/h S, 79% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Rain 60 F, 11 mp/h SE, 86% Humidity, 73% Chance of Rain

 

Similar to the previous two tournaments, weather conditions are expected to influence this week’s event. With a smaller field compared to the past two events, there’s hope that the impact on play will be minimized. Currently, rain is forecasted for Sunday, but hopefully, it won’t disrupt the competition too much. Weather has played a significant role in the past, such as in 2021 when play was suspended due to severe winds.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Genesis Invitational marks the culmination of the West Coast Swing before we head to Mexico next week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Originally debuting in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open, the tournament underwent several name changes over the years. In 1987, Nissan assumed sponsorship, leading to its renaming as the Nissan Open. In 1995, the “Los Angeles” tag was dropped, resulting in the Nissan Open moniker. From 2008 to 2016, it was known as the Northern Trust Open until Genesis became the primary sponsor in 2017. This sponsorship shift prompted another name change to the Genesis Open, which in 2020 evolved into the Genesis Invitational. The transition to an invitational format elevated the event’s status, boasting a more elite field, larger prize purse, and extended winner’s exemption.

Riviera Country Club, hosting the tournament since 1929, has been the venue for 59 editions, albeit non-consecutively. Since 1999, it has served as the exclusive site for the event. Additionally, the club is set to host the 2028 Olympics, with Los Angeles as the host city. Notably, the 2031 U.S. Open is also slated to take place at Riviera Country Club, adding to its illustrious history. The venue has previously hosted three Majors, including the 1948 U.S. Open, 1983 PGA Championship, and 1995 PGA Championship.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 4, Lloyd Mangrum (1956, 1953, 1951, 1949), Macdonald Smith (1934, 1932, 1929, 1928)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Lanny Wadtkins (1985)
• 18-Hole Record (Riviera Country Club):
  • 61, Ted Tryba (Round 3, 1999)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Riviera Country Club was originally designed by George Thomas in 1927. In 1992, the course underwent a renovation overseen by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore. It’s a Par 71 that’s listed at 7,322 yards. It features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s.

In terms of length, Riviera Country Club is average ranking 20 out of 44. Despite its location on the West Coast, the elevation changes aren’t all that significant. However, what makes it so difficult is the narrow fairways and firm greens. Despite the fairways being extremely narrow, the rough isn’t all that penal since it’s only 2″. Riviera and Torrey Pines are the only two courses on Tour that feature Kikuyu fairways and rough which is something to watch out for. Given the fast Poa Annua greens, the GIR % is roughly 10% lower here than the Tour Average over the last 5 years. The Poa Annua greens can be extremely challenging for some players as they run fast and can be unpredictable. The average 3 putts per round is 7-8% higher at Riviera Country Club.

The four Par 3’s range from 166 to 236 yards. Last year, No. 6 and No. 16 were the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average under par.

No. 4, 236 yards, Par 3: “The first real test on the front nine comes at the par 3 fourth. Wind conditions can make a hard tee shot nearly impossible when the gusts are blowing. The green, guarded by a large bunker in the front, slopes severely from right to left. Long putts are common on the fourth hole.”

No. 6, 199 yards, Par 3: “Some rounds, the sixth hole is a straightforward par 3. In other rounds, it shows its teeth. The two-tiered green is enough to cause problems for players as landing your tee shot on the right level is of utmost importance. Add in the difficulty of the island bunker. Positioned perfectly in the center of the two-tiered putting surface, avoid having to putt around the bunker in the middle of the green.”

There are eleven Par 4’s at Riviera Country Club with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 12 (+0.34).

No. 10, 315 Yards, Par 4: “Riviera’s most iconic hole, the 10^th has been called ‘one of the best 10^th holes in major championship golf’ by Jack Nicklaus, a winner of a record 18 majors. The drivable par 4 measures only 315 yards but the mental games it plays on a player can have lasting effects on their round. Sure, eagle and birdie is possible, but nearly just as easy is bogey and double. Players have expressed thinking about the 10^th hole as early as the eighth green, a mental giant for a short par 4.”

No. 15, 487 Yards, Par 4: “The tee shot requires a power fade to turn the corner of the doglegged fairway. The approach shot is made more difficult down the stretch as the hole plays into the setting sun later in the day. A two-tiered green can give players trouble even once they find the putting surface. While it’s unlikely players find a birdie on the 15^th to win the tournament, a bogey on the 15^th can lose the tournament.”

Look at this line 👀

Viktor Hovland plays the 15th hole unconventionally aiming at the fairway on 17 @TheGenesisInv.

(Presented by @CDWCorp) pic.twitter.com/mwzx4599bP

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 16, 2023

Hole No. 15 at Riviera has been a hot topic the past few seasons with players, specifically Hovland. taking a different approach to the hole. Instead of trying to avoid the deep bunker along the right side of the fairway, Hovland aimed at the center of the 17th fairway off the tee. To counter this last year, they had added a scoreboard in that opening but that didn’t seem to matter as Viktor still hit his drive down No. 17.

No. 18, 475 Yards, Par 4: “Riviera starts with an iconic hole and it ends in the same fashion. The 18^th is one of golf’s most unique and recognizable finishing holes. a blind tee shot from drastically below the level of the fairway means players must carry the hill to reach safely. If the drive can also turn a corner at the top of the hill, the approach shot becomes much easier. The natural amphitheater below the clubhouse provides the ultimate stadium-style finish to the round and tournament.”

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 1, No. 11, and No. 17. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. Hole No. 1 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.669 below par.

No. 1, 503 yards, Par 5: “Sitting in the shadow of the clubhouse, the first tee is elevated 75 feet above the fairway and tempts players with what appears to be a wide fairway. Big hitters beware, driver is too much club on this opening par 5. Most players choose an iron off the tee to set up their approach shot. Annually the first hole plays as the easiest on the course.”

No. 17, 590 yards, Par 5: “While it might be the longest hole at Riviera, the 17^th plays into the strength of the modern TOUR player. A powerful drive followed by a long iron makes the green reachable in two. Being on the putting surface with a chance for eagle provides insurance from the two-tiered green that slopes from back to front, creating difficult downhill putts. If you can play from below the hole location, your chances of scoring increase significantly.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 10, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Riviera Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.43	282.44
Driving Accuracy	62%	55%
GIR Percentage	66%	56%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.08	29.92
Scrambling Percentage	57%	61%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.62

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past five winners ranked 6th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +54.76, Per Round: +1.52)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +43.57, Per Round: +1.21)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +33.75, Per Round: +0.94)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +31.05, Per Round: +0.86)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +29.30, Per Round: +0.81)

 

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • This tournament has a much lower Greens in Regulation Percentage than the average TOUR Event. This means that players are going to miss greens at a higher rate forcing them to rely on their short game if they want to have success this week.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Russell Henley (Total: +16.00, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Rickie Fowler (Total: +14.05, Per Round: +0.39)
    • Si Woo Kim (Total: +13.61, Per Round: +0.38)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (Total: +11.92, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +11.62, Per Round: +0.32)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
  • The green complexes at Riviera Country Club are Poa annua .100”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +42.31, Per Round: +1.18)
    • Max Homa (Total: +27.70, Per Round: +0.77)
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +24.73, Per Round: +0.69)
    • Matt Kuchar (Total: +23.87, Per Round: +0.66)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +20.53, Per Round: +0.57)

 

• Good Drives Gained
  • Good Drives Gained is a more indicative stat for success here at Riviera as it measures a player’s ability to hit a green in regulation whether they are in the fairway or not.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +45.68, Per Round: +1.27)
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +36.45, Per Round: +1.01)
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +34.67, Per Round: +0.96)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +33.36, Per Round: +0.93)
    • Andrew Putnam (Total: +29.39, Per Round: +0.82)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at Riviera Country Club range between 175-200 Yards. Last year’s winner, Jon Rahm
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Max Homa (Total: +10.20, Per Round: +0.28)
    • Chris Kirk (Total: +9.57, Per Round: +0.27)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick (Total: +9.25, Per Round: +0.26)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +9.12, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Keegan Bradley (Total: +9.09, Per Round: +0.25)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
  • Six of the eleven Par 4’s at Riviera Country Club range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +35.81, Per Round: +0.99)
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +29.57, Per Round: +0.82)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +23.96, Per Round: +0.67)
    • Ludvig Aberg (Total: +21.59, Per Round: +0.60)
    • Patrick Cantlay (Total: +20.49, Per Round: +0.57)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the three Par 5’s at Riviera Country Club range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Wyndham Clark (Total: +14.47, Per Round: +0.40)
    • Harris English (Total: +13.46, Per Round: +0.37)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +13.21, Per Round: +0.37)
    • Jordan Spieth (Total: +13.14, Per Round: +0.36)
    • Max Homa (Total: +12.12, Per Round: +0.34)

 

• Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 150-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 150-175 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +417.27, Per Round: +11.59)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +417.04, Per Round: +11.58)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +393.71, Per Round: +10.94)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +307.07, Per Round: +8.53)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +291.65, Per Round: +8.10)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +523.38, Per Round: +14.54)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +505.47, Per Round: +14.04)
    • Gary Woodland (Total: +504.38, Per Round: +14.01)
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +457.78, Per Round: +12.72)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +388.50, Per Round: +10.79)

 

• Scrambling Gained
  • This tournament has a much lower Greens in Regulation Percentage than the average TOUR Event. This means that players are going to miss greens at a higher rate forcing them to rely on their short game if they want to have success this week.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Brian Harman (Total: +19.46, Per Round: +0.54)
    • Brendon Todd  (Total: +16.68, Per Round: +0.46)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +16.12, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Kurt Kitayama (Total: +14.64, Per Round: +0.41)
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +14.60, Per Round: +0.41)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at Riviera Country Club. Six out of the last Seven champions achieved a finish of T5 or better at this event before winning.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Cameron Young (2 Events – 68.25 Scoring Average)
    • Viktor Hovland (3 Events – 68.83 Scoring Average)
    • Collin Morikawa (4 Events – 69.13 Scoring Average)
    • Max Homa (7 Events – 69.38 Scoring Average)
    • Xander Schauffele (6 Events – 69.63 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

This year, the Genesis Invitational field is comprised of the top 50 in last season’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 finishers in the FedExCup Fall standings (Aon Next 10), the top player in the Race to Dubai, the 2024 season winners, the top 30 in the OWGR, and any sponsor exemptions.

There will be 70 players competing in this year’s tournament. Out of the 67 players to automatically qualify for this event, only Mattieu Pavon and Justin Rose have elected to skip the Genesis Invitational. Eighteen of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+650) fell short of victory at the WM Phoenix Open for the third consecutive year, settling for a T3 finish at TPC Scottsdale last week. In his three other starts this year, Scheffler secured a T6 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a T17 placement at The American Express, and an impressive T5 finish at The Sentry. Having participated in the event for the past four seasons, Scheffler has consistently landed inside the top 20 in his last three appearances. His strongest performance at Riviera Country Club was in 2022, where he clinched a T7 finish.

Rory McIlroy (+900) kicked off his 2024 season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago, securing a T66 finish. Before that, he showcased his skills overseas on the DP World Tour, where he notably clinched a runner-up position at the Dubai Invitational and emerged victorious at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. With seven previous appearances in this event, McIlroy boasts five top-20 finishes. However, his performance on the greens last year led to a challenging T29 finish.

Viktor Hovland (+1200) ended the 2023 season on a tear winning the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship. Recently he withdrew from the WM Phoenix Open last week after a less-than-ideal start to the 2024 season. He’s only played in two events to start the year finishing T22 at The Sentry and T58 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This will be his fourth appearance at Riviera Country Club with previous finishes of T20, T4, and T5.

Xander Schauffele (+1400) opted out of participating in the WM Phoenix Open last week following a T54 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his three prior starts this season, he secured a T9 position at the Farmers Insurance Open, followed by an impressive T3 finish at The American Express, and another strong showing with a T10 placement at The Sentry. With a collegiate background from San Diego State University, Schauffele has demonstrated success at Riviera in the past. Across his six appearances at this event, he boasts four top-20 finishes. However, his performance dipped last year, marking his lowest finish at the tournament with a T33 result.

Max Homa (+1600) experienced a setback at the WM Phoenix Open last week, missing the cut. Prior to this, his last missed cut was in June at TPC River Highlands (Travelers). In his three other starts this season, he finished T66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T14 at The Sentry. Notably, Homa boasts an impressive course history at Riviera Country Club. In each of his last four starts at the Genesis, he has landed inside the top 10. During this period, he clinched victory in 2021 and secured a runner-up position last year.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600) will aim for his first victory since the 2022 BMW Championship at a course where he has previously excelled. This marks his ninth outing at Riviera, where he has secured top-20 finishes in four of his last five appearances. Notably, he achieved his best result last year with a commendable 3rd-place finish. However, in his four starts this season, Cantlay has yet to crack the top 10. In his four starts this season, Cantlay has yet to finish inside the top 10. His performances include a T11 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a T56 placement at the Farmers Insurance Open, a T52 finish at The American Express, and a T12 finish at The Sentry.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Max Homa (’21), Adam Scott (’20, ’05)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole, Nick Dunlap, Ben Griffin, Nicolai Hojgaard, Chase Johnson, Jake Knapp, Chun-an ‘Kevin’ Yu

• Players with California ties in the Field:

• • College:
    • Collin Morikawa – University of California, Berkeley
    • Patrick Cantlay – UCLA
    • Max Homa – University of California, Berkeley
    • Sahith Theegala – Pepperdine University
    • Tiger Woods – Stanford
    • J.J. Spaun – San Diego State University
    • Xander Schauffele – San Diego State University
    • Jake Knapp – UCLA
    • Andrew Putnam – Pepperdine University
    • Patrick Rodgers – Stanford

• • Birthplace:
    • Patrick Cantlay – Long Beach Valley, CA
    • Max Homa – Burbank, California
    • Beau Hossler – Mission Viejo, California
    • Sahith Theegala – Orange, California
    • Tiger Woods – Cypress, California
    • J.J. Spaun – Los Angeles, California
    • Xander Schauffele – San Diego, California
    • Eric Cole – Palm Springs, California
    • Rickie Fowler – Murrieta, California
    • Kurt Kitayama – Chico, California
    • Jake Knapp – Newport Beach, California
    • Will Zalatoris – San Francisco, California

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 268.5/ -15.5 (-110/-110) – SportsBook

Over the past two years, the winning score for this event has consistently fallen below 15.5, with Jon Rahm finishing at -17 and Joaquin Niemann at -19. However, looking back over the last 24 editions dating back to 2000, the winning score has only dipped below -15.5 on six occasions.

While weather conditions can sometimes influence the tournament, the projected forecast appears favorable, aside from some expected rain on Sunday. In the previous two iterations of the Genesis Invitational, favorable weather conditions undoubtedly contributed to lower winning scores. Contrasting this with the 2021 and 2019 editions, characterized by windy conditions exceeding 20 mph on specific days, the winning score surpassed 268.5.

In terms of the field’s caliber, this year’s event showcases the lowest field rating observed in the past three years. The field rating stood at 695.00 in 2022, declined to 390.70 last year, and further dropped to 324.26 this year.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

Recent Form:

• In one of their five previous starts before this event, 7 of the last 10 winners had a T10 finish or better.

Event Specific:

• Before clinching victory, 6 out of the last 7 champions achieved a finish of T5 or better at this event.

 

Horses for Courses:

			Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Open
			Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Viktor Hovland	3	68.83	T20	T4	T5	–	–
Wyndham Clark	3	69.83	T33	DQ	T8	T17	–
Xander Schauffele	6	69.93	T33	T13	T15	T23	T15
Rory McIlroy	7	69.65	T29	T10	MC	T5	T4
Max Homa	7	69.38	2	T10	WON	T5	T37
Adam Scott	15	69.73	65	T4	T38	WON	T7
Collin Morikawa	4	69.13	T6	T2	T43	T26	–
Patrick Cantlay	8	69.86	3	T33	T15	T17	T15
Scottie Scheffler	5	70.00	T12	T7	T20	T30	–
Cameron Young	2	68.25	T20	T2	–	–	–
Will Zalatoris	4	69.71	4	26	15	–	–

 

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational	Genesis Open
			Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club	Riviera Country Club
	Events Played	Scoring Avg (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Lucas Glover	11	71.93	MC	–	MC	–	–
Corey Conners	4	71.80	61	MC	MC	MC	–
J.J. Spaun	6	73.06	T33	MC	–	63	MC
Brendan Todd	7	71.55	MC	–	MC	T56	–
Andrew Putnam	6	71.89	MC	T48	T32	MC	MC

 

Grayson Murray has also struggled at this event in the past missing the cut in 2019 and 2017.

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-17)
  • Price: 15-2

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Jon Rahm	28th	3rd	1st	39th	12th

 

• 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)
  • Price: 75-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Joaquin Niemann	17th	1st	1st	2nd	26th

 

• 2021: Max Homa (-12)
  • Price: 60-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Max Homa	2nd	3rd	21st	9th	7th

 

• 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
  • Price: 33-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Adam Scott	17th	3rd	3rd	17th	27th

 

• 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
  • Price: 150-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
J.B. Holmes	37th	11th	6th	33rd	1st

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Jon Rahm
  • 3 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T7 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • WON – The American Express (PGA)
  • WON – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)

• 2022: Joaquin Niemann
  • T8 – PIF Saudi International (ASA)
  • T6 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • MC – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • T5 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Max Homa
  • T7 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • T42 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T18 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T21 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T12 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)

• 2020: Adam Scott
  • WON – Australian PGA Championship (DPWT)
  • T11 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T33 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
  • T42 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T17 – Safeway Open (PGA)

• 2019: J.B. Holmes
  • MC – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • T26 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T48 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T23 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Jon Rahm

	2022	2021	2020	2019
Jon Rahm	T21	T5	T17	T9

 

2022: Joaquin Niemann

	2021	2020	2019
Joaquin Niemann	T43	MC	T44

 

2021: Max Homa

	2020	2019	2015	2014
Max Homa	T5	T37	MC	MC

 

2020: Adam Scott

	2019	2018	2017	2016	2013	2012	2010	2008	2007	2006	2005
Adam Scott	T7	T53	T11	T2	T10	T17	MC	T14	T69	2	WON

 

2019: J.B. Holmes

	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2006
J.B. Holmes	T60	T34	T11	T22	T52	MC	T8	T12	T3	T6	T7	T51

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Justin Thomas (+1600) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

After enduring a challenging stretch throughout much of the 2023 season, Thomas has experienced a resurgence in form since the Wyndham Championship. Since that pivotal event, he has consistently delivered strong performances, securing top-15 finishes in six PGA Tour events and one DP World Tour event. His impressive streak in the 2024 season commenced with a solid T3 finish at The American Express, where he gained strokes in every category. Subsequently, he continued to shine with a T6 placement at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and most recently, a commendable T12 finish at the WM Phoenix Open.

Thomas boasts a commendable track record at Riviera Country Club, having notched four top-20 finishes in his last six appearances at the venue. His standout performance came in 2019 when he held a commanding five-stroke lead heading into the final round, ultimately securing a second-place finish.

Reflecting on his 2023 season, Thomas has exhibited marked improvement across various aspects of his game. His proficiency off the tee has been particularly noteworthy, and his iron play appears to be returning to its peak form. Additionally, his short game has been a key asset, as evidenced by his impressive ranking of 6th in the field over the past 36 rounds. Thomas also excels in critical areas such as Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards), Par 5 Scoring (550-600 Yards), and Proximity Gained (150-200 Yards). While his last victory dates back to the 2022 PGA Championship, his recent performances indicate that he is on the cusp of capturing his 16th PGA Tour victory.

 

• Sam Burns (+2200) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

We were on Burns last week at the WM Phoenix Open, where he put up a strong performance, ultimately finishing tied for third. This extends his impressive streak of top-10 finishes to three consecutive starts.

Despite facing challenges in his previous two appearances at Riviera Country Club, resulting in missed cuts, Burns has shown promise at the Genesis Invitational with notable finishes, including a third-place result in 2021 and a respectable T32 finish in 2020.

Moreover, Burns boasts a remarkable track record at Innisbrook, a course similar to this week’s venue, securing victories in 2021 and 2022 at the Valspar Championship. Notably, he clinched a sixth-place finish at the Valspar Championship in 2023.

In the past two events, Burns has been great with his irons. At the WM Phoenix Open, he ranked 20th in the field in SG: Approach, and at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am he ranked 17th in the field in that category. In addition to his iron play improving, he’s also been much better on the greens gaining strokes putting in each of his last four starts. Last week he gained the most strokes off the tee in his PGA Tour career. With his game trending positively, Burns stands a chance at contending for victory this week, provided his short game remains solid.

 

• Adam Scott (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

At 42 years old, Adam Scott continues to showcase his enduring prowess on the golf course. Commencing his 2024 season overseas on the DP World Tour, he notched three consecutive top-10 finishes before returning to the PGA TOUR at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he secured a T20 placement. Last week, at the WM Phoenix Open, Scott sustained his impressive form, culminating in a T8 finish.

Returning to Riviera, a course with which he is intimately acquainted and where he has tasted success in the past, Scott looks to capitalize on his familiarity. With victories in 2020 and 2005, coupled with runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2006, Riviera holds a special place in Scott’s golfing journey. His most recent standout performance at the venue was in 2022, where he clinched a commendable T4 finish.

In terms of his recent form, Scott appears to be firing on all cylinders, particularly off the tee, where he has demonstrated consistent improvement over his last three outings. His iron play has also shown promise, ranking 3rd in the field at the WM Phoenix Open and 12th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Additionally, over the past 36 rounds, Scott has showcased his prowess around the green, ranking 20th in SG: Around the Green, and his proficiency on Poa greens, ranking 6th in SG: Putting.

With his current form and formidable course history at Riviera, Scott appears poised to contend for his first PGA Tour victory since his triumph at this tournament in 2020.

 

• Sahith Theegala (+3500) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Theegala kicked off the 2024 season with a stellar performance, securing a runner-up finish at The Sentry. However, he faced challenges in his subsequent tournaments, missing the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and landing a T64 spot at the Farmers Insurance Open. Despite these setbacks, he found his footing again at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, concluding with a commendable T20 finish. His momentum continued at the WM Phoenix Open, where he led after the first two rounds and ultimately secured a 5th-place finish.

This week marks Theegala’s fifth appearance at the Genesis Invitational. While his initial two outings at Riviera Country Club resulted in modest T49 and T48 finishes, his recent performances have been notably stronger, with T7 and T6 finishes in his last two appearances.

Theegala’s recent showings suggest an upward trajectory in his game. Notably, at the WM Phoenix Open, he ranked 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Approach, 15th in SG: Putting, and 16th in SG: Off the Tee. Despite losing strokes around the green in two of his last three events, he has gained strokes in that category in each of his four prior starts at Riveria. Furthermore, over the last 36 rounds, he ranks an impressive 3rd in the field in Scrambling Gained.

 

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Fitzpatrick concluded the 2023 season with notable performances, securing a T9 finish at the TOUR Championship and claiming the runner-up spot at the BMW Championship. Following the FedEx Cup playoffs, he ventured overseas to compete on the DP World Tour, where he clinched victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. In his lone start of the FedExCup Fall Swing, Fitzpatrick finished T4.

The 2024 season has presented a mix of highs and lows for Fitzpatrick, showcasing both his prowess and challenges on the course. He commenced the season with a respectable T14 finish at Kapalua. However, he encountered difficulties, failing to make the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and securing a T58 placement at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Nonetheless, he displayed signs of improvement last week at the WM Phoenix Open, concluding with a solid T15 finish.

This week marks Fitzpatrick’s fourth appearance at Riviera Country Club. While he missed the cut last year, he finished T5 in 2021 and T30 in 2020.

Despite his inconsistent performance this season, Riviera’s course characteristics align well with Fitzpatrick’s strengths, particularly his ball-striking ability. His recent improvement, notably in his performance off the tee at the WM Phoenix Open, suggests a promising outlook for his performance this week.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.50 Units

[Just missed: Cam Young, Keegan Bradley]

 

Picks (Top 10):

• Ludvig Aberg (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

The two-time Ben Hogan Award Winner is set to make his tournament debut this week at the Genesis Invitational. Despite being less than a year into his professional career, Aberg has already clinched a PGA TOUR victory. Following his participation in the winning European Ryder Cup team, he returned to the States for the FedEx Fall Swing, where he showcased his talent with impressive finishes of T13 or better in four consecutive events. Aberg capped off this remarkable run with a victory at the RSM Classic.

While Aberg faced some challenges in his first two events of the season, finishing T47 at The Sentry and T30 at the Sony Open, he quickly regained his form in his last two starts. He delivered a strong performance with a T9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and a runner-up placement at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

At just 24 years old, Aberg has already established himself as one of the premier ball strikers on Tour. Although he has yet to play at Riviera, his skill set is well-suited to the course. While debutants historically haven’t won this event, notable exceptions like Viktor Hovland in 2021 and Young in 2022, who both secured top-10 finishes in their debut appearances at Riviera, suggest that Aberg has the potential to make a significant impact.

Total Risk on Top 10s: 1.00 Unit

[Just missed: Jordan Spieth]

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Jason Day (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Last year, Jason Day made his sixth appearance at Riviera Country Club, achieving an impressive T9 finish, marking his strongest performance at the event thus far.

In the previous year, Day secured his first PGA Tour victory since 2018, along with a commendable T2 placement at The Open Championship. Continuing his momentum from the strong finish in the 2023 season, Day kicked off the current season with a solid T10 position at The Sentry. However, he faced a slight setback in his following two events, landing T34 at The American Express and missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. Nevertheless, he showcased a resurgence in his recent outing, securing a respectable T6 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Day’s remarkable iron play was evident in his previous start, ranking 14th in the field. If he can maintain this level of performance, he is poised for success this week, particularly with his proficiency in the short game. Even if he encounters challenges with his irons, his adeptness around the green should ensure his competitiveness in the event, as demonstrated in his performance last year.

 

• Nicolai Højgaard (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Nicolai Højgaard, a notable member of the European Ryder Cup team and a three-time champion on the DP World Tour, is set to make his debut appearance at The Genesis Invitational. His most recent triumph on the DP World Tour occurred in November at the DP World Tour Championship. Following this victory, he secured a T25 finish at the Dubai Invitational and a T7 placement at the Hero Dubai Classic. Beginning his rookie season strongly, Højgaard finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open, followed by a T31 placement at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Despite lacking prior experience at Riviera Country Club, Højgaard’s skill set aligns well with the course demands. He demonstrates strength in various key aspects crucial for this week’s tournament. Notably, his impressive driving distance positions him competitively. Additionally, his iron play stands out, having consistently gained strokes in this area over his last six starts. While his performance around and on the green may fluctuate, Højgaard exhibits proficiency on Poa annua greens, evident from his recent success in gaining strokes in his last two appearances on such surfaces. While uncertain if Højgaard will secure his inaugural PGA Tour victory this week, his potential contention in Sunday’s final round would not be surprising.

 

• Kurt Kitayama (+188) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.88 Units

Kurt Kitayama encountered a missed cut in his inaugural appearance at The Genesis Invitational last year. However, following this event, he secured his breakthrough victory on the PGA Tour at Bay Hill.

Beginning the 2024 season with a T29 finish at The Sentry, Kitayama’s performance steadily improved. He achieved a T24 placement at the Sony Open in Hawaii, followed by a T39 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and most recently, a T8 position at the WM Phoenix Open. Impressively, since the Genesis Scottish Open last year, he has not missed a single cut across nine events.

While struggling with his play off the tee and around the green last year when Kitayama missed the cut, both aspects have shown considerable improvement this season. Furthermore, his iron play has demonstrated increased consistency, with Kitayama gaining strokes in each of his first four events of the 2024 season.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

 

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Total Risk on The Genesis Invitational: 5.50 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.