2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Jake Knapp backers last week at the Mexico Open! In only his fifth appearance on the PGA Tour, Knapp secured his inaugural victory. His achievement makes him the third PGA Tour rookie to triumph this season, matching the total number of rookie winners from the previous season. Knapp’s journey is quite remarkable, considering he was working as a nightclub bouncer just two years ago. He earned his PGA Tour card last year by finishing No. 13 on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Two years ago, @KnappTime_LTD was a nightclub bouncer.

Today, he is seeking his first PGA TOUR victory @MexicoOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/aCBb5jldyf

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 25, 2024

In terms of placements, we hit Doug Ghim Top 20 (+175) and Carson Young Top 40 (+110).

We’ve had so many close calls for our first outright of the 2024 season with Benny An losing in a playoff at the Sony Open, Christiaan Bezuidenhout finishing 2nd at The American Express, Sam Burns finishing tied for 3rd at the WM Phoenix Open, and Stephan Jaegar finishing tied for third last week at the Mexico Open.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

On Monday night, the ninth installment of ‘The Match’ featured Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Lexi Thompson, and Rose Zhang. Rory emerged victorious, claiming 10 skins over 12 holes to secure the win.

The winning shot from @McIlroyRory 🎯 pic.twitter.com/CBIAUMA3aU

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 27, 2024

The Florida Swing begins this week with the next four events taking place in the Sunshine State.

Rory McIlroy is set to make his third appearance in the 2024 season. While he found success on the DP World Tour earlier in the year, he’s encountered difficulties on the PGA Tour, failing to break into the top 20 in his initial two events. However, he boasts a previous victory in this event in 2012 and was the runner-up in 2014.

Chris Kirk aims to defend his title after his playoff victory against Eric Cole last year. Since that triumph, Kirk has secured one additional PGA Tour win at the onset of the 2024 season, claiming victory at The Sentry.

Cognizant steps in as the primary sponsor for this event, taking over from Honda, which sponsored the event from 1982 to 2023.

The Champions Course at PGA National will sport a new configuration this year, playing as a par 71, spanning 7,147 yards. Notable changes include No. 10 transformed into a 530-yard par 5. Additionally, fairway lines were widened in May of the previous year, reverting to the grassing lines from 2012-13, with one acre of fairway grass added since last year.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 29th, 2024 – March 3rd 2024
• Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States
• Course: PGA National (The Champion)
• Course Type: Florida
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,147 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .120”
• Fairways: Celebration bermudagrass .450”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 2-2.25”
• Bunkers: 60
• Water Hazard(s): – (In-Play on 15 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000 /$1,620,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 144 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 70.36 (-0.64), Rank 13 of 49
  • 2022: 71.34 (+1.34), Rank 7 of 50
  • 2021: 71.10 (+1.10), Rank 6 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: +1
  • 2022: +2
  • 2021: +1

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Designer Link (Jack Nicklaus (2002, 2014, 2018)):
  • Tahoe Mountain Club – Jack Nicklaus (2004) – Barracuda Championship
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Jack Nicklaus (1974) – Muirfield Village Golf Club
  • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – Jack Nicklaus (1987) – The American Express

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, February 29th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 6:45 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 2: Friday, March 1st, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 6:45 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 3: Saturday, March 2nd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 6:45 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 4: Sunday, March 3rd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 6:45 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 80 F, 11 mp/h NE, 72% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Cloudy 79 F, 16 mp/h ESE, 66% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Cloudy 80 F, 13 mp/h SSE, 69% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 81 F, 12 mp/h SE, 73% Humidity, 54% Chance of Rain

As in the past two editions, weather is forecasted to play a significant role in this week’s tournament. Last year saw the first round affected, with numerous players needing to complete their initial 18 holes on Friday. In 2022, heavy rainfall marked the final day of play.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Florida Swing of the PGA Tour tees off with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Originating in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason-Inverrary Classic, it enjoyed co-sponsorship with National Airlines alongside Gleason until 1981, when American Motors Corporation assumed sponsorship. Honda took the helm as title sponsor in 1982 and held the rights until this year, when Cognizant, an IT Company, steps in as the new title sponsor, ushering in a name change for this year’s event: the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.

Since 2007, PGA National has served as the event’s permanent host, boasting six golf courses, with ‘The Champion’ as the sole course in use. Originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981, the course has undergone several renovations overseen by Jack Nicklaus’ company. Significant alterations occurred in 2014, including changes to the par-four fourteenth and expansions of several greens (No. 1, 9, 15, and 17). Further enhancements were made five years ago, with the removal of palmetto palms on the ninth hole to facilitate easier approach shots. In 2022, several bunkers on holes No. 13 and No. 16 were removed, and a few bunkers on No. 17 and No. 18 were reduced. Following last year’s event, the par shifted from 70 to 71, as Hole Number 10 was reclassified from a Par 4 to a Par 5. In May 2023, fairway lines were widened to return to grassing lines from 2012-13, resulting in the addition of one acre of fairway grass since the previous year.

Given the position of this event in the middle of two designated events, most of the top players have decided to skip this stop. This is one of the main reasons that Honda has dropped their sponsorship as they feel slighted by the PGA Tour.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 2, Jack Nicklaus (1977, 1978); Johnny Miller (1980, 1983); Mark Calcavecchia (1987, 1998); Pádraig Harrington (2005, 2015)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Justin Leonard (2003 at Mirasol).
• 72-Hole Record (PGA National):
  • 266, Chris Kirk (2023), Eric Cole (2023)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Brian Harman (Round 2, 2012), Matt Jones (Round 1, 2021)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

PGA National poses as one of the most formidable challenges on the Tour, rivaling even the Majors. Over the past five years, its scoring average has consistently remained above par.

This year, the Champions Course at PGA National unveils a new layout, now playing as a par 71 spanning 7,147 yards. Noteworthy alterations include the transformation of No. 10 into a 530-yard par 5. Additionally, fairway lines were widened in May of the preceding year, returning to the grassing lines from 2012-13, with an additional acre of fairway grass added since the previous year.

The course’s principal defense lies in its abundant water hazards, affecting nearly every hole (15 out of 18). Despite its relatively short layout, these water features can compel layups on certain holes. Moreover, the course is highly susceptible to winds, which can significantly impact approach shots.

The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this week and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes were played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.

The four Par 3’s range between 175 yards and 226 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 175 – 200 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 15, 179 yards, Par 3: This is the start of the ‘Bear Trap’ and while it’s not the longest of the Par 3’s on the course, it is the toughest playing 0.114 strokes over par last year. Players will try and hit an iron into a diagonal green that slopes towards the water on the right. A bunker protects the back of the green which has proven to be a challenge in the past given the limited landing area.

The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 1 is the shortest listed at 365 yards with the longest being No. 6, playing 479 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 6 (+0.258).

No. 6, 479 yards, Par 4: This is a long par-4 playing 479 yards that is normally a par-5 but is changed for this event. Last year, this was the toughest par-4 on the course playing 0.258 strokes over par. Off the tee, it’s extremely narrow with water to the left and fairway bunkers on the right. From there, players will try and hit a shot into a small green that, you guessed it, is surrounded by more water and bunkers. The green is a three-tiered green which can leave some difficult putts depending on the pin location for the day.

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 10, No. 14, and No. 18. No. 3 was the only Par 5 to have a scoring average under par in 2023.

No. 18, 556 yards, Par 5:  It’s a double dogleg par 5 that first goes left and then right. Off the tee, players will have water and bunkers along both sides. From there, it gets a little more difficult as they have to weigh the risk vs reward for their second shot. The green is nestled between numerous bunkers and water which can come into play if they flair one out left.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	PGA National (Champions Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.68	273.46
Driving Accuracy	62%	60%
GIR Percentage	66%	60%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.17	27.92
Scrambling Percentage	58%	55%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.49

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past five winners ranked 8th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +37.33, Per Round: +1.04)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +35.44, Per Round: +0.98)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +27.97, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +25.46, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Chris Kirk (Total: +22.57, Per Round: +0.63)

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Each of the past five winners ranked 15th or better in SG: Off the Tee amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +39.08, Per Round: +1.09)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +25.10, Per Round: +0.70)
    • Tyler Duncan (Total: +24.32, Per Round: +0.68)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +24.00, Per Round: +0.67)
    • Kevin Yu (Total: +23.34, Per Round: +0.65)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at PGA National are TifEagle bermudagrass .120”
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy (Total: +38.60, Per Round: +1.07)
    • Thomas Detry (Total: +31.84, Per Round: +0.88)
    • Chad Ramey (Total: +31.76, Per Round: +0.88)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +28.08, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Justin Suh (Total: +27.97, Per Round: +0.78)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at PGA National range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Justin Rose (Total: +9.98, Per Round: +0.28)
    • Rickie Fowler (Total: +9.54, Per Round: +0.26)
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +9.10, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Greyson Sigg (Total: +8.78, Per Round: +0.24)
    • Francesco Molinari (Total: +7.63, Per Round: +0.21)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the eleven Par 4’s at PGA National range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +24.43, Per Round: +0.68)
    • Eric Cole (Total: +19.41, Per Round: +0.54)
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +15.75, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Beau Hossler (Total: +15.31, Per Round: +0.43)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +14.86, Per Round: +0.41)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the three Par 5’s at PGA National range between 500-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Doug Ghim (Total: +14.29, Per Round: +0.40)
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +12.20, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Erik van Rooyen (Total: +12.03, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Stephan Jaeger (Total: +11.96, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Thomas Detry (Total: +11.52, Per Round: +0.32)

 

• Proximity Gained: 125-200 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 125-150 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Ryan Moore (Total: +338.85, Per Round: +9.41)
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +284.69, Per Round: +7.91)
    • Davis Thompson (Total: +274.35, Per Round: +7.62)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +268.44, Per Round: +7.46)
    • Nicholas Lindheim (Total: +259.22, Per Round: +7.20)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 150-175 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Taylor Pendrith (Total: +396.45, Per Round: +11.01)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +395.45, Per Round: +10.98)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +363.71, Per Round: +10.10)
    • Daniel Berger (Total: +353.96, Per Round: +9.83)
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +352.90, Per Round: +9.80)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +515.49, Per Round: +14.32)
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +480.67, Per Round: +13.35)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +479.98, Per Round: +13.33)
    • Adam Svensson (Total: +406.96, Per Round: +11.30)
    • Justin Lower (Total: +396.72, Per Round: +11.02)

 

• Bogey Avoidance Gained
  • In recent editions, the winning score for this event has consistently been -14 or lower, underscoring the importance of avoiding any bogeys this week. While players should seize scoring chances as they arise, it is paramount to steer clear of any black numbers on the scorecard to stay competitive.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +25.34, Per Round: +0.70)
    • Alex Noren (Total: +22.52, Per Round: +0.63)
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +22.52, Per Round: +0.63)
    • Taylor Pendrith (Total: +22.01, Per Round: +0.61)
    • Bud Cauley (Total: +21.29, Per Round: +0.59)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at PGA National.
  •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Lee Hodges (2 Events – 69.00 Scoring Average)
    • Sepp Straka (5 Events – 69.22 Scoring Average)
    • Dylan Wu (2 Events – 69.25 Scoring Average)
    • Byeong-Hun An (5 Events – 69.50 Scoring Average)
    • Sungjae Im (5 Events – 69.61 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s tournament. Eight of the top thirty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+700) is set to compete in his third PGA Tour event of the season. After a challenging start to his 2024 season with a T66 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he showed improvement with a T24 finish at The Genesis Invitational. While he claimed victory in this event back in 2012 and was the runner-up in 2014, his recent record at PGA National includes three missed cuts and a T59 finish.

Cameron Young (+2000) made a promising debut last year with a T16 finish in this tournament. Despite seeking his first PGA Tour victory, he’s demonstrated strong form this season, with finishes of T33, T70, T8, and T16 in his recent events.

Russell Henley (+2200) a past winner in 2014, has shown consistency with four other top-20 finishes in nine appearances at PGA National. Starting the season with a T52 at The Sentry and a T4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he faced difficulties in his subsequent events before rebounding with a T24 finish at The Genesis Invitational.

Byeong-Hun An (+2500) began the season impressively with a 4th place at The Sentry and a T2 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. While his performance dipped in subsequent events, he still managed a T16 finish at The Genesis Invitational, building anticipation for his sixth appearance at PGA National.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500) has experienced mixed results this season, with a promising T14 start followed by missed cuts and mid-level finishes. With past appearances in this event resulting in a missed cut and a 68th-place finish, he aims to find consistency in his game.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Chris Kirk (’23), Sepp Straka (’22), Sungjae Im (’20), Kieth Mitchell (’19), Rickie Fowler (’17), Pádraig Harrington (’15, ’05), Russell Henley (’14), Rory McIlroy (’12), Camilo Villegas (’10), Matt Kuchar (’02)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Braden Shattuck, Cameron Champ, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Chase Johnson, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Fred Biondi, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, Mac Meissner, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Nicholas Lindheim, Nick Dunlap, Norman Xiong, Patrick Fishburn, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Taylor Montgomery, Tom Kim, Tom Whitney, Victor Perez, Wilson Furr

• Players with Florida ties in the Field:

• • College:
    • Tyson Alexander – Florida
    • Daniel Berger – Florida State
    • Fred Bondi – Florida
    • Eric Cole – Nova Southeastern University
    • Billy Horschel – Florida
    • Vincent Normann – Florida State
    • Sam Ryder – Stetson
    • Ben Silverman – Florida Atlantic
    • Alejandro Tosti – Florida
    • Camilo Villegas – Florida
    • Matt Wallace – Jacksonville State

• • Birthplace:
    • Tyson Alexander – Gainesville, Florida
    • Daniel Berger – Plantation, Florida
    • Bud Cauley – Daytona Beach, Florida
    • Billy Horschel – Grant, Florida
    • Matt Kuchar – Winter Park, Florida
    • Sam Ryder – Winter Park, Florida
    • Jimmy Stanger – Tampa, Florida

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Chez Reavie -> IN: Joe Highsmith (Alternate)
  • OUT: Mackenzie Hughes -> IN: Patrick Fishburn (Alternate)
  • OUT: Vince Whaley -> IN: Mac Meissner (Alternate)

 

PGA Tour Injury Report | 2024 Cognizant Classic

Sponsored By @NUCLRGOLF

Full Details -> https://t.co/j0Zx5QuSo1 (Free Trial)@the_cognizant #CognizantClassic

1) Daniel Berger P (Back)
2) Maverick McNealy P (Shoulder)
3) Jhonattan Vegas P (Elbow/Shoulder)
4) Gary Woodland P… pic.twitter.com/36BxqMFehQ

— GOLF INJURY REPORT (@InjuryReportPGA) February 27, 2024

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 270.5/ -13.5 (+100/-120) – SportsBook

Last year, Chris Kirk and Eric Cole set the 72-hole record at PGA National recording a 266 (-14). Since 2007, which is when PGA National became the permanent host of this event, the lowest 72-hole score was 267 (-13) recorded by Camilo Villegas in 2010.

As in the past two editions, weather is forecasted to play a significant role in this week’s tournament. Last year saw the first round affected, with numerous players needing to complete their initial 18 holes on Friday. In 2022, heavy rainfall marked the final day of play.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

			The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic
			PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Lee Hodges	2	69.00	T14	T9	–	–	–
Sepp Straka	5	69.22	T5	WON	T33	T27	MC
Dylan Wu	2	69.25	T10	T30	–	–	–
Sungjae Im	5	69.61	T42	MC	T8	WON	T51
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2	69.88	T42	T25	–	–	–
Daniel Berger	7	69.88	–	4	–	T4	T36
Shane Lowry	6	69.88	T5	2	T36	T21	–
Russell Henley	9	69.88	–	–	T3	T8	T20
Sam Ryder	3	70.00	–	T9	T8	T53	–
Gary Woodland	9	70.49	–	T5	–	T8	T36

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic	The Honda Classic
			PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)	PGA National (Champions Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Hayden Buckley	3	74	MC	MC	–	69	–
Chad Ramey	2	73.50	MC	MC	–	–	–
Erik van Rooyen	3	73.38	MC	–	T60	MC	–
Doug Ghim	3	73.33	–	MC	MC	MC	–
Nick Hardy	2	73.25	MC	MC	–	–	–
Ryan Moore	7	72.90	MC	–	MC	–	–
Tom Hoge	5	72.83	–	–	MC	MC	MC
Greyson Sigg	2	72.5	MC	MC	–	–	–
Patton Kizzire	6	72.44	–	–	MC	68	MC
Peter Malnati	7	72.33	MC	–	MC	MC	T36
Michael Kim	5	71.86	MC	–	MC	–	–
Joseph Bramlett	3	71.75	T55	–	MC	MC	–

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Chris Kirk (-14)
  • Price: 25-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Chris Kirk	15th	5th	8th	37th	9th

• 2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
• • Price: 125-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Sepp Straka	1st	4th	20th	31st	4th

 

• 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
  • Price: 80-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Matt Jones	10th	4th	7th	2nd	25th

 

• 2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
  • Price: 35-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Sungjae Im	11th	1st	5th	5th	38th

 

• 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
  • Price: 300-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Keith Mitchell	12th	1st	7th	6th	38th

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Chris Kirk
  • MC – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T3 – The American Express (PGA)
  • 3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T64 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Sepp Straka
  • T15 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • 66 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T16 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T49 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T42 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)

• 2021: Matt Jones
  • T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T8 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T34 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • T30 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)

• 2020: Sungjae Im
  • T29 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T34 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T36 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T10 – The American Express (PGA)

• 2019: Keith Mitchell
  • MC – Genesis Open (PGA)
  • MC – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • 73 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T16 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Chris Kirk

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Chris Kirk	T7	T25	MC	MC	T33	MC	MC	T12	T51	T56	T29

 

2022: Sepp Straka

	2021	2020	2019
Sepp Straka	T33	T27	MC

 

2021: Matt Jones

	2020`	2019	2016	2014	2013	2010	2008
Matt Jones	T47	T36	MC	MC	T18	T40	T4

 

2020: Sungjae Im

	2019
Sungjae Im	T51

 

2019: Keith Mitchell

	2018
Keith Mitchell	MC

 

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Eric Cole (+2500) – DraftKings / FanDuel / BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Daniel Berger (+4000) – FanDuel / BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Daniel Berger returned to the PGA Tour at The American Express after back surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. He demonstrated his competitive edge with a T39 finish, affirming his skill to vie on the PGA Tour. Despite missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, he rebounded in his latest event with a T28 finish at the WM Phoenix Open.

Now back at PGA National for the first time since 2022, a venue where he has excelled in the past, Berger looks to capitalize on his previous success. His recent appearances at this course resulted in strong T4 and 4th place finishes. Notably, his standout performance in this event occurred during his tournament debut in 2015, where he secured a 2nd place finish.

Berger has historically thrived on Florida courses, and with his recent form, he appears poised for success here. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks within the top 10 in SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking. Additionally, his performance off the tee has been exceptional, placing him near the top of the field in that category as well. With his impressive recovery from injury, this event presents an opportune moment for Berger to clinch his first PGA Tour victory since the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

 

• Adam Svensson (+5500) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

Adam Svensson has had a solid start to the 2024 season, making the cut in four of his first six events. While his approach play and tee game have been strong, his putting has been a limiting factor. Despite losing strokes on the green in his last outing, Svensson managed to secure a T10 finish at The Genesis Invitational. At that event, he ranked 17th in SG: Approach, 8th in SG: Off the Tee, and 6th in SG: Tee to Green.

This marks Svensson’s fourth appearance at PGA National, with his best result occurring in 2022 when he placed T9. Last year, he finished T49 at this event.

His iron play positions him well for contention, boasting 7th in SG: Ball Striking and 13th in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. Additionally, his recent performances off the tee have been impressive. Although not exceptionally long off the tee, his accuracy should prove beneficial on a course with numerous water hazards. If he can improve his putting performance, Svensson stands a chance this week. Interestingly, in the only two events where he gained strokes on the green (The Sentry and Sony Open in Hawaii), both featured bermudagrass putting surfaces.

 

• Matthieu Pavon (+6000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

 

• Doug Ghim (+7000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

After encountering early struggles with missed cuts in his first two events of the season, Doug Ghim has hit his stride in his recent trio of tournaments, securing finishes of T13, T12, and T8. Notably, his performance off the tee and with his irons has been particularly impressive during this stretch.

While Ghim has struggled in previous outings at PGA National, failing to make the cut in his initial three visits, his current game form suggests a different outcome may be in store. Notably, his putting has shown improvement, and his iron play has become more consistent compared to past performances.

With his game trending upward, Ghim appears poised for his maiden PGA Tour victory. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 12th in SG: Off the Tee, 9th in SG: Approach, and 4th in SG: Ball Striking. Additionally, he excels in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards) and Par 5 Scoring (550-600 Yards). Should he find success on the greens this week, he stands a solid chance of contention.

 

• Justin Lower (+17000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.05 to win 8.50 Units

In his five outings this season, Justin Lower has maintained a flawless record, successfully making the cut in each event. Demonstrating steady improvement, he achieved his best result last week at the Mexico Open, securing a T3 finish. Throughout the season, his approach play has been consistently impressive, although he has encountered difficulties on the putting greens. Notably, in his recent outing where he enjoyed his highest finish, he showed improvement in his putting game.

Lower’s sole appearance at PGA National resulted in a T64 finish in 2022.

His exceptional iron play remains a cornerstone of his game, complemented by an overall improvement in his performance across the board. Should he stay hot with the putter, Lower possesses the skill set that aligns favorably with the demands of this course.

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.98 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Russell Henley (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Henley appears to have a special connection with the Champions Course at PGA National. With this being his ninth appearance at the event, he boasts a victory in 2014, along with four other top 20 finishes. Impressively, in his last four starts at this venue, he has not finished lower than 24th, although it’s worth noting that he hasn’t participated in this event since 2021.

Entering this tournament in decent form despite some fluctuations this season, Henley endured a rough start with a T52 finish at The Sentry. However, he rebounded with an impressive T4 performance at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Following a slight dip in his play resulting in a T58 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he regained his form in his last outing, finishing T24 at The Genesis Invitational.

Over the last 36 rounds, Henley ranks near the top of the field in SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking. Additionally, he sits fourth in Bogey Avoidance, a crucial statistic for this week’s competition. Given his past success on Bermudagrass surfaces, where three of his four wins have come, Henley appears to be a natural fit for this course.

 

• J.T. Poston (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Poston has kicked off the 2023 season with remarkable success, securing placements within the top 20 in five out of his initial six starts. His standout performance during this stretch was a T5 finish at The Sentry. Despite a hiccup with a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Poston swiftly regained his form, culminating in a T10 finish at The Genesis Invitational.

Although his track record at PGA National isn’t stellar, I’m opting to overlook this aspect as we’ve witnessed players in the past overcome poor course history to excel on this course.

Poston’s overall game has been stellar this season, with his only notable struggle being his putting at The Genesis, where he missed the cut. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks near the top of the field in SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking. Additionally, his performance in Proximity Gained (125-200 Yards) this week, crucial for approach shots, is impressive. Regarding his driving ability, he has consistently gained strokes off the tee in each of his six starts this season.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Brandon Wu (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Brandon Wu has yet to establish consistency with his game this season. While he commenced the season on a positive note with a T18 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he faltered with a missed cut at The American Express. Subsequently, he secured a T47 placement at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, missed another cut at the WM Phoenix Open, and most recently attained a T13 finish at the Mexico Open.

Wu encountered difficulties in his initial two appearances at The Honda Classic, missing the cut both times. However, he showcased improvement last year with a commendable T14 finish, ranking 3rd in the field in SG: Approach.

On a positive note, Wu has demonstrated some consistency with his iron play, gaining strokes in four out of his five tournaments this season. Additionally, his putting has shown improvement, notably evidenced at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Mexico Open. Furthermore, his proficiency on bermudagrass surfaces is advantageous for him.

 

• Lee Hodges (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Hodges endured a challenging start to the 2024 season, encountering missed cuts in three out of his first five events. However, he appeared to rediscover his form at The Genesis Invitational, where he secured a T24 finish.

When considering a standout performer for this course, Lee Hodges emerges as a prime candidate. He impressed in his tournament debut with a T9 finish, and followed up with another strong showing last year, finishing T14.

Reviewing his performances in 2022 and 2023 reveals a consistent trend: initial challenges in the early season tournaments, followed by strong showings at The Genesis, and further success in this particular event. It’s a pattern worth noting and admiring. Overall, his approach play has remained steady, and there has been a notable improvement in his putting over his last two events.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches: 4.98 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.