Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, All time tracked record in MLB shows a 1.1% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2024. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available Here which is $400 for the season.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL West
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
Los Angeles Dodgers -450/103.5
Arizona Diamondbacks +650/83.5
San Diego Padres +750/81.5
San Francisco Giants +825/81.5
Colorado Rockies +10000/60.5
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers continued to spend money like its water making the biggest free agent splash signing Shohei Ohtani. The rest of the roster is exquisite and they should stroll to the division title this year. The questions for the Dodgers will be can they get healthy in the rotation and can they cash in again in the post-season . Tyler Glasnow coming over from the Rays will be the ace and they will await the arrival of Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw back from injury. Yoshinubu Yamamoto will be unproven, but his stuff should play. The bullpen has Even Phillips closing things out and plenty of solid options to get him the ball. The lineup features Teoscar Hernandez as an addition to Ohtani. Their top three is Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman which is the best start to a lineup in baseball. Prediction 99-63
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes managed to work their way all the way to the World Series in a huge year of over-achievement. Led by NL rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll they will look to find their way back to the post-season in 2024. The offense is led by Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker at the top of the order. They add power bat Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson to batter right handers. Those two bats should help elevate a bottom half of the order that struggled in 2023. Their game is based upon speed on the base paths and solid defense to back up a staff led by Cy-Young contender Zac Gallen. After Gallen they have under-rated Merrill Kelly and new addition Eduardo Rodriguez. The bullpen struggled to 24th in MLB last year and will need to improve. Prediction 83-79
San Diego Padres
Gone are Juan Soto and Cy Young winner Blake Snell. The Friars still feature a lineup with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rest of the projected lineup is below average however. In the rotation Yu Darvish seems to be past his prime, but top to bottom this is actually a fairly solid starting five even if none of them are top tier aces. Joe Musgrove, Michael King and recently traded for Dylan Cease should help keep the Padres in lots of games. The bullpen features Japanese hurler Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez at the back end competing for saves. This team seems confusing to me. In trading Soto they seemingly were putting up the white flag in rebuilding, but then they added Dylan Cease so it looks like they haven’t quite given up just yet. Having said that I don’t think there’s enough talent on offense to compete with the Dodgers. Prediction 79-83
San Francisco Giants
The Giants at least tried to cobble a lineup together adding Free Agents Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee. They’ll need Lee to be an OBP beast atop the lineup, and they’ll need to find a way to push the boundaries on the bases more to score some runs and maybe be competitive. The Rotation features ace Logan Webb, and I am high on youngster Kyle Harrison. We will see if Jordan Hicks can transition from a closer role back to a starter and still be effective. The strength of the team is the bullpen with closer Camilio Doval and twin setup men Tyler and Taylor Rogers. If they can get some decent returns from the rotation they could compete, but I don’t see it. Prediction 77-85
Colorado Rockies
Nolan Jones had a solid breakout season and has high expectations coming into 2024. If he can repeat his performance and Kris Bryant can actually stay healthy and produce the Rockies could possibly spoil some other teams seasons along the way. Charlie Blackmon is past his prime and former top prospects Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers have shown they will never be stars in this league. The Rockies are and should be in full rebuild mode. I’m not sure anyone in the rotation will end the season with an ERA under 5.00 so they’ll be playing from behind early and often. The bullpen is hot garbage too. Only question for the Rockies is if they’ll lose 100 games. Prediction 61-101
NL West Free Plays
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 103.5 Wins – 1.5 Units.
San Francisco Giants Under 81.5 Wins – 1.5 Units
I almost want to play the under on every N.L. West team. I think west coast bias is sneaking in here. Are the 2024 Dodgers really four wins better simply by adding Ohtani even with all those health questions in the rotation? Are Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler going to make the Giants a contender. I say no.
