2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Preview & Picks

Peter Malnati secured a triumph at the Valspar Championship, seizing his second PGA TOUR victory after more than eight years since his last win. In a year marked by unexpected successes, Malnati’s victory stands out as he defied the odds, being a 300-1 underdog to win the tournament.

Our pick, Cam Young, narrowly missed out on claiming his inaugural PGA Tour victory, falling short by two shots. This marks consecutive runner-up finishes, with Cameron Young at the Valspar Championship and Xander Schauffele at THE PLAYERS Championship.

On numerous occasions, we’ve been on the cusp of securing our first outright win of the 2024 season, experiencing near misses at different events. Benny An came close at the Sony Open, narrowly missing out in a playoff. Christiaan Bezuidenhout clinched second place at The American Express, while Sam Burns tied for third at the WM Phoenix Open. Stephan Jaeger secured a T3 finish at the Mexico Open, and Hayden Springer matched that at the Puerto Rico Open.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The last occurrence of this tournament took place in November 2022. Due to the PGA TOUR’s shift back to a calendar-year schedule for 2024, the event was omitted from the 2023 season.

After claiming victories at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship, Scottie Scheffler opted out of participating in the Valspar Championship. However, he has been a consistent contender at Memorial Park Golf Course, having competed in each of the last three editions of the tournament held there. Throughout this period, he has secured two top-10 finishes.

Scottie began with odds of 3-1 on DraftKings, which have now shifted to +280. His initial +300 odds mark the shortest for a pre-tournament favorite since the Mexico Open at Vidanta last year, where Jon Rahm opened at +240 before securing the runner-up position to Tony Finau.

To be frank, there are just two scenarios in which Scheffler might not clinch victory in this event. The first is his lingering neck injury, for which he received on-course treatment during THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite this setback, it didn’t seem to impede his performance much, as evidenced by his win, highlighted by a remarkable final-round score of 64. The second potential obstacle could be his putting, although it has notably improved since he made the switch to a mallet putter.

Tony Finau aims to retain his championship title at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He emerged victorious in the previous edition of this event in 2022. Since that memorable win, Finau has secured just one other victory on the PGA Tour, which came at the 2023 Mexico Open.

Padraig Harrington is set to join the field this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. His recent victory at the Hoag Classic marked his seventh triumph on the Champions Tour. Although he has participated in two PGA Tour events this season, his performances were varied, finishing T52 at the Mexico Open and missing the cut at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. Harrington last competed at Memorial Park in 2021, securing a T32 finish.

Sam Bennett and Cole Hammer will kick off their 2024 PGA Tour season this week. Bennett, hailing from Texas A&M, has competed in five events on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, securing three top-25 finishes. Meanwhile, Hammer, representing Texas University, has participated in six starts on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, boasting two top-10 finishes. Hammer also has prior experience in this tournament, finishing 27th last season.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 28th, 2024 – March 31st, 2024
• Location: Houston, Texas, United States
• Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
• Course Type: Parklands
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,412 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass .100” w/ Poa trivialis overseed .110”
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .400”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 1.25”
• Bunkers: 21
• Water Hazard(s): 2 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,100,000/$1,638,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 144 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden-Death (18 repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 70.56 (+0.56), Rank 11 of 49
  • 2021: 70.80 (+0.80), Rank 9 of 50
  • 2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Rank 8 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: E
  • 2021: +1
  • 2020: +3

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Houston Open teed off its inaugural round in 1946 under the banner of the “Houston Open Invitational.” Since then, it has roamed across various golf courses in the Houston vicinity.

In 2020, Memorial Golf Course secured its status as the tournament’s permanent home. Prior to this, the event found its residence at the Golf Club of Houston. The upcoming Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course marks only its fourth stint at this venue.

In 2019, the Astros Foundation spearheaded a $34 million revitalization project for Memorial Park, helmed by Tom Doak.

Following the 2022 edition, the course underwent further enhancements. The 17th Hole underwent a 30-yard extension, accompanied by a repositioned green and two additional bunkers. The rough was also trimmed down to 1.25″ from the previous length of 2.5″.

This tournament has faced challenges in securing a consistent sponsor. In the last three iterations, the event was backed by different entities (Vivint, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Cadence Bank). This year, Texas Children’s Hospital steps in as the primary sponsor.

• Most Tournament Wins (Event):
  • 3, Curtis Strange (1980, 1986, 1988), Vijay Singh (2002, 2004, 2005)
• 72-Hole Record (Memorial Park):
  • 264, Tony Finau (2022)
• 18-Hole Record (Memorial Park):
  • 62, Scottie Scheffler (2nd round, 2021), Tony Finau (2nd round, 2022)
• 18-Hole Record (Event):
  • 62, Ron Streck (3rd round, 1981 at Woodlands CC), Fred Funk (3rd round, 1992 at TPC Woodlands). Golf Club of Houston record: 63, Johnson Wagner (1st round, 2008), Adam Scott (1st round, 2008), Jimmy Walker (1st round, 2011), Phil Mickelson (3rd round, 2011), Scott Piercy (1st round, 2015), Sung Kang (2nd round, 2017)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by John Bredemus in 1936, Memorial Park Golf Course features a Par 70 layout, comprising five Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and three Par 5s.

Memorial Park poses a formidable challenge, ranking among the toughest courses on the Tour outside of the Majors. In 2022, only two holes outside the three Par 5s had a scoring average under par.

The course’s primary defense lies in its length and narrow fairways. Additionally, Memorial Park is highly susceptible to winds, posing a significant challenge for approach shots.

Memorial Park only has 21 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.

The rough will be less penal than previous editions as it has been cut down from 2.25″ to 1.25″.

The five Par 3’s range between 155 yards and 237 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 150-175 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 7, 216 yards, Par 3: “Hole 7 is a long Par 3 that is tucked up against the trees and ravine. Depending on where the pin is located, players can land a ball on the front or run one down the slope that splits the green into two tiers. The right side of this green is the safe and favorable side.”

No. 15, 155 yards, Par 3: “Welcome to the loudest hole in Texas. Don’t let the distance fool you. This short Par 3 has a difficult green to land on with not much area for a safe miss. With a false front on the right side, a creek short and left, and a very narrow green, this exciting hole will be a challenge for pros and amateurs alike.”

There are ten Par 4’s at Memorial Park Golf Course with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 405 yards with the longest being No. 14, playing 529 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 14 (+0.318).

No. 4, 490 yards, Par 4: “Hole 4 features one of the most important tee shots at Memorial Park Golf Course. From the tee box, it looks like a dog leg left, however, the fairway bends back to the right as you approach the green, creating a very interesting look. When hitting your approach, be cautious of going long, as there is a creek that lines the back of the green.”

No. 17, 405 yards, Par 4: “One of the more unique looking holes out at Memorial Park Golf Course, the 17th hole is a short Par 4 that requires two precise shots to hit the green in regulation. From the back tees, the fairway takes on an “S” like shape around the retention pond while the green juts out into the water for a tough second shot.”

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 8, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 3 with a scoring average of 4.643.

No. 8, 625 yards, Par 5: “The longest Par 5 on the course, Hole 8 requires precise shots to maneuver the fairway and reach the green without any issues. The fairway starts with a dogleg right off the tee and then bends back left as you approach the green, bringing out-of-bounds areas into play. On the left edge of the green, a creek can come into play causing a player to favor the right side.”

No. 16, 576 yards, Par 5: “This long Par 5 is difficult to go for in two, but not impossible. With a long drive off the tee, the fairway has a downslope that players use to their advantage. But if the ball goes too far left, it can end up in the thick trees forcing a lay up. The green is protected by water on three of its four sides, and not much room behind for a bail-out shot.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Memorial Park
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.42	290.19
Driving Accuracy	62%	59%
GIR Percentage	66%	63%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.08	29.50
Scrambling Percentage	58%	56%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.50

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. Each of the past two winners ranked 14th or better in SG: Off the Tee amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +22.10, Per Round: +0.92)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +16.35, Per Round: +0.68)
    • Cameron Champ (Total: +15.51, Per Round: +0.65)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +15.00, Per Round: +0.63)
    • Alejandro Tosti (Total: +14.79, Per Round: +0.62)

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Each of the past three winners ranked 14th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +36.94, Per Round: +1.54)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +26.13, Per Round: +1.09)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +20.99, Per Round: +0.87)
    • Ryan Moore (Total: +20.73, Per Round: +0.86)
    • Joel Dahmen (Total: +18.31, Per Round: +0.76)

• • As we’ve seen in the past, one of the main defenses for Memorial Park is the windy conditions. Based on the forecast this week, we’re expected to see winds around 20 mph Friday through Sunday. Here are the best players in SG: Approach when combined with Moderate/ Windy AF Conditions.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +43.31, Per Round: +1.80)
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +20.14, Per Round: +0.84)
    • Daniel Berger (Total: +18.32, Per Round: +0.76)
    • Aaron Rai (Total: +17.19, Per Round: +0.72)
    • Sam Ryder (Total: +16.53, Per Round: +0.69)

 

• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • The Greens in Regulation Percentage at Memorial Park is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Mackenzie Hughes (Total: +16.97, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Seenghyeon (SH) Kim (Total: +15.59, Per Round: +0.65)
    • Padrig Harrington (Total: +14.67, Per Round: +0.61)
    • Aaron Baddeley (Total: +13.66, Per Round: +0.57)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +13.23, Per Round: +0.55)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at Memorial Park Golf Course are MiniVerde bermudagrass .100” w/ Poa trivialis overseed .110”. Each of the past three winners ranked 5th or better in SG: Putting amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +26.79, Per Round: +1.12)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +22.19, Per Round: +0.92)
    • Ben Griffin (Total: +20.43, Per Round: +0.85)
    • Billy Horschel (Total: +18.83, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +17.98, Per Round: +0.75)

 

• Driving Distance
  • Listed at 7,435 Yards Memorial Park Golf Course is one of the longer courses players will face on Tour. We’ve bombers have an advantage at this course in the past and with the 17th hole being increased 30 yards, that should continue to hold true. Also the rough will be less penal than previous editions as it has been cut down from 2.25″ to 1.25″.
  • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Cameron Champ (314.9 Yard Average)
    • Kevin Dougherty (313.1 Yard Average)
    • Chris Gotterup (313.0 Yard Average)
    • Carl Yuan (310.7 Yard Average)
    • Alejandro Tosti (308.2 Yard Average)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the five Par 3’s at Memorial Park Golf Course range between 150-175 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Kyoung-Hoon (KH) Lee (Total: +9.22, Per Round: +0.38)
    • Will Zalatoris (Total: +8.01, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Kurt Kitayama (Total: +7.27, Per Round: +0.30)
    • Ben Griffin (Total: +6.99, Per Round: +0.29)
    • Tom Whitney (Total: +5.82, Per Round: +0.34)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x4)
  • Four of the ten Par 4’s at Memorial Park Golf Course range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Peter Malnati (Total: +15.29, Per Round: +0.64)
    • Henrik Norlander (Total: +11.38, Per Round: +0.47)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +10.68, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +10.62, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Patton Kizzire (Total: +9.93, Per Round: +0.41)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the three Par 5’s at Memorial Park Golf Course range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +11.67, Per Round: +0.49)
    • Beau Hossler (Total: +10.53, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Alexander Noren (Total: +8.88, Per Round: +0.37)
    • Thornborn Olesen (Total: +8.25, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +8.06, Per Round: +0.34)

 

• Proximity Gained: 200+Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 200+ yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +827.15, Per Round: +34.46)
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +825.30, Per Round: +34.39)
    • Robert MacIntyre (Total: +716.13, Per Round: +29.84)
    • Thorbjorn Olesen (Total: +712.51, Per Round: +29.69)
    • Andrew Novak (Total: +611.85, Per Round: +25.49)

 

• Scrambling
  • The Greens in Regulation Percentage at Memorial Park is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
  • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Alex Noren (73.03%)
    • Aaron Baddeley (71.43%)
    • Taylor Montgomery (70.49%)
    • Scottie Scheffler (69.57%)
    • Jason Day (68.46%)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, course history isn’t all that indicative of success at Memorial Park. However, Finau and Kokrak both played at Memorial Park before winning this event.
  • Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played, Last 3 Editions):
    • Tony Finau (3 Events – 68.30 Scoring Average)
    • Joel Dahmen (2 Events – 68.50 Scoring Average)
    • Alex Smalley (2 Events – 68.63 Scoring Average)
    • Scottie Scheffler (3 Events – 68.75 Scoring Average)
    • Aaron Rai (2 Events – 68.88 Scoring Average)
    • Adam Long (2 Events – 69.70 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s Texas Children’s Houston Open. Only ten of the top fifty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+300) triumphed at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship in his previous two outings. Across his eight starts this season, he has maintained a flawless streak, consistently finishing within the top 20. This marks his fourth visit to Memorial Park Golf Course. Notably, in his last two appearances at this event, he secured finishes of T2 and T9.

Wyndham Clark (+1400) secured runner-up positions at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship in his recent outings. Additionally, Clark boasts a victory this season, clinching the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am title, albeit after it was abbreviated to 54 holes. This marks his fourth participation in this event, with his strongest showing of T16 occurring in 2022, the most recent edition of the tournament.

Tony Finau (+1800) holds the title of defending champion in this event. Throughout his eight starts on the PGA Tour this season, he has secured three top-20 finishes. However, his recent performances have been less than stellar, as he struggled to a T45 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and, more recently, missed the cut at the Valspar Championship.

Sahith Theegala (+2000) is set to make his third appearance at this event. In his two previous outings at Memorial Park, he secured finishes of T61 and T22. Despite not clinching a victory this year, Theegala boasts four top-10 finishes in his eight starts on the Tour.

Will Zalatoris (+2000) will make his tournament debut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Across his six starts on the PGA Tour this season, he has secured three top-20 finishes. Nevertheless, he faced challenges in his most recent outing, failing to make the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Tony Finau (’22), Lanto Griffin (’19)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Andrew Novak, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, David Skinns, Dylan Wu, Harrison Endycott, Hayden Buckley, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jesse Droemer, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, Kurt Kitayama, Mac Meissner, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Nick Hardy, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Sam Bennett, Thomas Detry, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Victor Perez, Vincent Norrman, Will Zalatoris, Wilson Furr

• Players with Texas ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Sam Bennett – Madisonville, Texas
    • Bronson Burgoon – The Woodlands, Texas
    • Pierceson Coody – Plano, Texas
    • Parker Coody – Plano, Texas
    • Jesse Droemer – Sealy, Texas
    • Blaine Hale Jr. – Dallas, Texas
    • Cole Hammer – Houston, Texas
    • Taylor Moore – San Angelo, Texas
    • Ryan Palmer – Amarillo, Texas
    • Chandler Phillips – Huntsville, Texas

• • College:
    • Paul Barjon – TCU
    • Sam Bennett – Texas A&M
    • Bronson Burgoon – Texas A&M
    • Cameron Champ – Texas A&M
    • Pierceson Coody – Texas
    • Parker Coody – Texas
    • Jesse Droemer – Houston
    • Doug Ghim – Texas
    • Cole Hammer – Texas
    • Tom Hoge – TCU
    • Beau Hossler – Texas
    • Mac Meissner – SMU
    • Ryan Palmer – Texas A&M
    • Chandler Phillips – Texas A&M
    • Scottie Scheffler – Texas
    • Roger Sloan – UTEP
    • Hayden Springer – Texas Tech
    • Jhonattan Vegas – Texas
    • Jimmy Walker – Baylor
    • Dawie van der Walt – Lamar

• Injury Report:

PGA Tour Injury Report | 2024 Houston Open

Sponsored By @NUCLRGOLF

Full Details -> https://t.co/j0Zx5QuSo1 (Free Trial)@TCHouOpen #TCHoustonOpen

1) Scottie Scheffler P (Neck)
2) Will Zalatoris P (Back)
3) Daniel Berger P (Back)
4) Jason Day P (Vertigo)
5) Garrick Higgo Q… pic.twitter.com/GmBopMYha9

— Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) March 25, 2024

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Kevin Yu -> IN: Scott Piercy
  • OUT: Maverick McNealy -> IN: Zecheng Dou (Alternate)
  • IN: Adam Long (Sponsor)
  • IN: Dawie van der Walk (Sponsor)
  • OUT: Scott Piercy (Reshuffle)
  • OUT: Zecheng Dou (Reshuffle)
  • IN: Austin Cook (Reshuffle)
  • IN: Richy Werenski (Reshuffle)
  • OUT: C.T. Pan -> IN: James Hahn

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 265.5/ -14.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

In the past three editions of the Texas Children’s Houston Open, the winning score has been above 265.5 (-14.5) twice times. However, in the most recent edition of this event, Tony Finau posted a winning score of 16.

In the past, we’ve seen the weather play a factor at this event and it should again this week. However, I would expect this venue to play easier this season mainly due to the rough being cut down to 1.25″ from 2.5″.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +330/ No -500)

Since moving to Memorial Park Golf Course this tournament has never gone to a playoff. The past three winners of this tournament have all won by two strokes or more.

To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

 

Facts and Figures:

• Each of the past two winners have played at this venue (Memorial Park) before winning
• Each of the past two winners have posted a top-15 finish in one of their prior five starts before winning
• Each of the past two winners has been ranked inside the top 30 in the OWGR

 

Horses for Courses

Before 2020, Memorial Park Golf Course was not the venue for this event. Therefore, I will only use data from the last three events which were held at this course.

	Cadence Bank Houston Open	Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open	Vivint Houston Open
	Memorial Park Golf Course	Memorial Park Golf Course	Memorial Park Golf Course
	2022	2021	2020
Alex Smalley	T4	T15	–
Aaron Rai	T7	T19	–
Scottie Scheffler	T9	T2	T32
Joel Dahmen	T9	T5	–
Maverick McNealy	T27	T19	T20
Stephan Jaeger	T9	T35	–
Davis Riley	T27	T29	–
Jason Day	T16	T54	T7
Mackenzie Hughes	T16	T29	T7
Scott Piercy	T16	T19	T32
Tony Finau	WON	MC	T24
Adam Long	MC	T11	T11

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	Cadence Bank Houston Open	Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open	Vivint Houston Open
	Memorial Park Golf Course	Memorial Park Golf Course	Memorial Park Golf Course
	2022	2021	2020
Jimmy Walker	MC	MC	MC
Peter Malnati	MC	MC	–
Taylor Moore	MC	MC	–
Chesson Hadley	MC	MC	–
Chad Ramey	MC	MC	–
Beau Hossler	MC	–	MC
Henrik Norlander	MC	67	MC
Stewart Cink	T57	MC	MC
Kelly Kraft	MC	T29	MC
Martin Laird	T22	MC	MC
Taylor Pendrith	66	MC	–
MJ Daffue	MC	T64	–
C.T. Pan	–	MC	T58
Robby Shelton IV	52	–	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • Price: 22-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Tony Finau	2nd	4th	9th	29th	2nd

 

• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • Price: 50-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Jason Kokrak	14th	17th	2nd	67th	3rd

 

• 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
  • Price: 160-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Carlos Ortiz	31st	5th	14th	2nd	5th

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Tony Finau
  • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • 9 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T28 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T5 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • WON – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)

• 2021: Jason Kokrak
  • T54 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • MC – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T11 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T15 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)

• 2020: Carlos Ortiz
  • T35 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
  • T48 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • MC – Shriners Hospitals for Childen Open (PGA)
  • MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T46 – Safeway Open (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2022: Tony Finau

	2021	2020	2018	2017	2016	2015
Tony Finau	MC	T24	T24	T34	MC	T42

 

2021: Jason Kokrak

	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
Jason Kokrak	T80	T71	68	MC	MC	9	MC

 

2020: Carlos Ortiz

	2020	2016	2015
Carlos Ortiz	T4	MC	MC

 

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Sahith Theegala (+2200) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Theegala made a strong start to the season by finishing runner-up at The Sentry, narrowly missing victory by one stroke to Chris Kirk. His recent performances have been impressive, securing a T6 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T9 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Having competed here twice before, Theegala finished T61 in 2021 and improved to T22 in 2022.

In his last 24 rounds, Theegala ranks 2nd in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass), 11th in SG: Off the Tee, and 44th in SG: Approach. He also excels in Par 4: 400-450 Yard Scoring and Par 5: 550-600 Yard Scoring. His considerable distance off the tee is expected to provide him with an advantage this week, as he’s gained distance on the field in seven of his eight tournaments this season.

 

• Alex Noren (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Noren is showing signs of improvement with his best performances of the 2024 season. He secured a T9 finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and followed it up with a T19 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Impressively, he gained strokes in every category in both of these events.

Having competed at Memorial Park twice before, Noren’s debut saw him miss the cut, but he bounced back strongly in 2022 with a T4 finish.

In his last 24 rounds, Noren ranks 14th in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass), 37th in SG: Off the Tee, and 34th in SG: Approach. Notably, his short game has been exceptional lately, ranking 24th in SG: Around the Green and 10th in Scrambling Gained during this period. He also excels in Par 3: 150-175 Yard Scoring and Par 5: 550-600 Yard Scoring. With his recent form and course history, this week presents a promising opportunity for Noren to secure his first PGA Tour victory.

 

• Keith Mitchell (+4500) – Caesars
  • Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Keith Mitchell held the 54-hole lead at the Valspar Championship last week, but unfortunately, a final-round 77 took him out of contention. Nonetheless, he’s had an impressive start to the season, securing five top-20 finishes in his nine starts.

His initial outings at Memorial Park were challenging, as he missed the cut in 2020 and finished T41 in 2021. However, in his most recent appearance at this venue, he improved to a T9 finish.

In the last 24 rounds, Mitchell ranks 2nd in SG: Off the Tee, and 3rd in SG: Approach. Off the tee, he’s known for his distance rather than his accuracy. In the past, he’s struggled with his short game but that has become much more consistent around the green this season. His putting has also been an issue but in the lone event with a similar green complex (WM Phoenix Open), he gained strokes putting. Mitchell also gained strokes on the green at the last edition of the Houston Open

 

• Kurt Kitayama (+6600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

Kitayama has only missed the cut once in his seven starts on the PGA Tour this season. During this stretch, he has achieved six top-40 finishes, including two top-20 finishes. His recent strong performance at THE PLAYERS Championship saw him secure a T19 placement.

This week marks Kitayama’s tournament debut, although he does have a notable 2nd place finish at the Renaissance Club in 2022, which shares similarities with the course layout this week.

Over the last 24 rounds, Kitayama ranks 21st in SG: Off the Tee, 26th in SG: Approach, and 34th in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Renowned for his powerful drives rather than pinpoint accuracy off the tee, he has outdistanced the field in six of his seven tournaments this season. While he has encountered challenges on the greens in the past, he has shown improvement by gaining strokes putting in three of his last four events. Notably, his best putting performance occurred at TPC Scottsdale, which shares similarities with Memorial Park’s green complex. Additionally, his iron play has been exceptional this season, particularly with his long irons, as he ranks 1st in Proximity Gained from 200+ Yards.

 

• Mark Hubbard (+12500) – Caesars
  • Risk: 0.07 to win 8.75 Units

Hubbard has maintained a perfect record, making the cut in all eight of his starts on the PGA Tour this season. However, he has only managed to break into the top 20 twice, securing a T20 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and a notable T4 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

While Hubbard has faced challenges in his recent outings at Memorial Park, he did showcase a strong performance with a T2 finish at this event back in 2020. Additionally, he achieved a respectable T27 finish at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, hosted at Quail Hollow.

 

• Andrew Novak (+20000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.04 to win 8.00 Units

Novak has been in impressive form, securing top-20 finishes in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. While he will be making his tournament debut this week, his overall game is well-suited to the challenges of this course.

Over the past 24 rounds, Novak has demonstrated notable strengths, ranking 9th in SG: Approach, 5th in Proximity Gained from 200+ Yards, 10th in SG: Around the Green, and 18th in Scrambling Gained. Known for his distance off the tee rather than pinpoint accuracy, he has outdistanced the field in five of his last six tournaments. Additionally, Novak has shown consistency on the greens, gaining strokes putting in five of his last six starts. Notably, his best putting performance occurred at TPC Scottsdale, which shares similarities with Memorial Park’s green complex.

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.97 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Mackenzie Hughes (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Hughes has shown consistency by missing only one cut in his eight starts this season, though he has cracked the top 20 only once. That breakthrough came last week at the Valspar Championship, where he secured an impressive T3 finish.

Memorial Park holds favorable memories for Hughes, with strong performances in previous years. He achieved a T7 finish in 2020, followed by finishes of T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022.

While Hughes may not be renowned as a long hitter, he has demonstrated improved distance in three of his last four tournaments. Moreover, he has enhanced his accuracy off the tee, showcasing increasing consistency. His approach play has also been commendable, gaining strokes in each of his last three events. Particularly noteworthy is his prowess around the greens, where he ranks 1st in SG: Around the Green amongst the field in the last 24 rounds.

 

• Billy Horschel (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Following early struggles with two missed cuts in his first three events, Horschel has recently shown a return to form. He secured top-15 finishes in two of his last three events, including a T9 finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and a T12 finish at the Valspar Championship last week.

While Horschel has participated in this event in the past, he has not competed in the past three years, indicating a lack of prior experience at Memorial Park. However, last season, he performed decently at several comparable courses, achieving a T65 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T40 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Over the last 24 rounds, Horschel ranks 4th in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass), 23rd in SG: Off the Tee, and 31st in SG: Approach. Additionally, he excels in Par 3: 150-175 Yard Scoring and Par 4: 400-450 Yard Scoring. Furthermore, Horschel has demonstrated proficiency around the greens, gaining strokes in each of his last three events and ranking 20th in Scrambling Gained over the last 24 rounds.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Ryan Fox (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

In his inaugural full season as a PGA Tour member, Ryan Fox has encountered some challenges while adapting. Out of his first six starts this year, Fox missed the cut four times. However, he managed to secure solid finishes at PGA National, where he landed at T35, and at TPC Scottsdale, finishing T41.

Despite lacking prior experience at Memorial Park, Fox has shown proficiency at similar courses in the past. Last season, he achieved a T21 finish at Colonial Country Club and a commendable T12 finish at the Renaissance Club.

In his recent performances, Fox has displayed improved consistency with his iron play, gaining strokes on approach in each of the last three events. Known for his impressive distance off the tee rather than pinpoint accuracy, this attribute proves advantageous this week, where distance holds more importance. While his putting has been inconsistent this season, he has been much better on bermudagrass surfaces.

 

• Joseph Bramlett (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Bramlett’s journey on the PGA Tour this season has been marked by varied outcomes. Out of his eight starts, he has missed the cut in three events but has secured three top-40 finishes. Notably, he recently delivered his best performance of the season, claiming a T17 finish at the Valspar Championship.

His track record at Memorial Park Golf Course reflects a similar inconsistency. In his initial two visits to Houston, he managed a T74 finish and missed the cut. However, last season, he showcased significant improvement with a T9 finish at the venue.

Recognized for his impressive distance off the tee rather than pinpoint accuracy, Bramlett’s approach play has been somewhat inconsistent this season. However, he displayed his best performance with his irons last week. Around the greens, Bramlett demonstrates prowess, ranking 6th in Scrambling Gained in the last 24 rounds compared to the field. Additionally, he excels in Par 3: 150-175 Yard Scoring, Par 4: 400-450 Yard Scoring, and Par 5: 550-600 Yard Scoring.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the Texas Children’s Houston Open: 4.97 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.