2024 RBC Heritage Preview & Picks

Scottie Scheffler clinched his second green jacket last week, at 4-1 odds on most books. Remarkably, he has won in three out of his last four Tour starts. Despite expressing his intention to return home to his wife following his victory, Scheffler remains slated to compete this week. While there is speculation surrounding a potential withdrawal from the event, he is presently listed among the participants.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The fifth Signature Event of the season takes place this week at Harbour Town.

Matthew Fitzpatrick will look to defend his title after defeating Jordan Spieth in a playoff last year. Should he succeed, he would secure a notable feat as the first golfer since Boo Weekley in 2007-08 to achieve back-to-back victories at the RBC Heritage.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: April 18th, 2024 – April 21st, 2024
• Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina, United States
• Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
• Course Type: South Carolina/ Southeast
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,213 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bermuda w/ Poa trivialis overseed .115”
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .375”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 1.25”
• Bunkers: 54
• Water Hazard(s): – (In-Play on 18 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 3,700 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/ $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 69 Players
• Cut: No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden-Death (18, 18)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 70.22 (-0.78), Rank 28 of 49
  • 2022: 70.74 (-0.26), Rank 19 of 50
  • 22021: 70.33 (-0.67), Rank 26 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: -2
  • 2022: E
  • 2021: -2

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Pete Dye (1969)
• Recent Renovations:
  • 2022 – New tees on No. 2, 5, and 17 and a palm tree added to No. 10 greenside bunker

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship
  • TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship
  • Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) – The RSM Classic
  • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open in Hawaii

• Designer Link (Pete Dye (1969)):
  • PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – Pete Dye 1986 – The American Express
  • TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) – Pete Dye 1980 – THE PLAYERS Championship
  • TPC Louisiana – Pete Dye 2004 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
  • TPC River Highlands – Pete Dye 1982 – Travelers Championship

• Comparable Location (Hilton Head Island, South Carolina):
  • The Dunes Golf and Beach Club – Myrtle Beach, South Carolina – Myrtle Beach Classic
  • Quail Hallow Club – Charlotte, North Carolina – Wells Fargo Championship

• Comparable Yardage (7,213 Yards):
  • Colonial Country Club – 7,209 Yards – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
  • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – 7,261 Yards – WM Phoenix Open

• Comparable Greens (Bermuda with a Poa trivialis overseed .115”):
  • Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) – TifEagle Bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .120” – Valspar Championship
  • TPC Louisiana – TifEagle Bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – Zurich Classic of New Orleans

• Comparable Average Green Size (3,700 sq. ft.):
  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – 3,500 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, April 18th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, April 19th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, April 20th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:15 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, April 21st, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:15 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

• Thursday: AM Clouds/ PM Sun 80 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 10 mp/h SW, 65% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 83 F, 8 mp/h WSW, 70% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Showers 73 F, 9 mp/h NE, 73% Humidity, 43% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The RBC Heritage, first debuted on the PGA Tour 53 years ago, in 1969. The venue for this tournament has remained constant since that date.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 5, Davis Love III  (1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 262, Webb Simpson (2020)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, David Frost (2nd round, 1994), Troy Merritt (2nd round, 2015)
• Largest Margin of Victory:
  • 10 Strokes, Brian Gay (2009)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Pete Dye in 1969, Harbour Town features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.

In terms of length, Harbour Town is one of the shortest courses on Tour measuring 7,213 yards. It ranks 17th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 15 of 44, with the average fairway width being 33.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 3,700 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers really aren’t a factor here as there are only 54 which ranks as the 8th fewest of 44 courses. 

The four Par 3’s range between 192 yards and 217 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 4, 200 Yards, Par 3: “A classic Pete Dye risk/reward design. There is ample room on the right to bail out, and a hidden bunker behind the green can save your ball from a lagoon.”

No. 14, 192 Yards, Par 3: “This is a beautiful aquatic layout with water from tee to green on the right. Thanks to overhanging trees, the green is a small, isolated target with an adjacent small pot bunker bound to act as a magnet for the unsuspecting.”

There are eleven Par 4’s at Harbour Town Golf Links with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. No. 9 is the shortest listed at 332 yards with the longest being No. 8, playing 473 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 3 (+0.178).

No. 3, 469 Yards, Par 4: “Trees line both sides of the fairway, making a straight shot from the tee important. A large bunker guards the front of the green, with three more positioned to the right. A medium to short iron can get the job done, but the small green can be hard to hold onto.”

No. 13, 373 Yards, Par 4: “The tee shot must be positioned to the right side of the fairway to set up the approach to the green. The second shot will be an itron shot between two large oaks, but don’t score your par until you’ve surmounted the final; two obstacles: a large cypress and the banked bunker that guards the front of the green.”

No. 18, 472 Yards, Par 4: “The 18th hole is one of golf’s most recognizable finishes with the Harbour Town Lighthouse standing sentinel behind the green. The goal is the wide landing area jutting into Calibogue Sound. The long approach to the flag offers ample bailout to the right where the innocent-looking but insidious mounding has caused many to lose a sought-after par.”

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 2, No. 5, and No. 15. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 2 with a scoring average of 4.633.

No. 2, 502 Yards, Par 5: “Long hitters can reach the green in two if they keep the drive on the left side of the fairway. Otherwise, the second shot should be positioned down the left side to open up the green, which lies on a diagonal, for a third shot.”

No. 15, 588 Yards, Par 5: “You could call No. 15 a thinking challenge since this great par five demands careful deliberation and shot execution all the way from the tee to the flag. This will save you from the fate of the water on the left and zealous bunker guardians on both sides.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Each of the past four winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Tom Hoge
    • Corey Conners
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Cameron Young

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • The Greens in Regulation Percentage at Harbour Town is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game. Four of the past five winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Mackenzie Hughes
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Lucas Glover
    • Taylor Moore

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The greens at Harbour Town Golf Links are Bermuda w/ Poa trivialis overseed .115”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole
    • Harris English
    • Brian Harman
    • Nick Taylor
    • Sahith Theegala

• Fairways Gained
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Lee Hodges
    • Shane Lowry
    • Lucas Glover
    • Brice Garnett

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
• Three of the four Par 3’s at Harbour Town Golf Links range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Tom Hoge
    • Jake Knapp

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the eleven Par 4’s at Harbour Town Golf Links range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Cameron Young
    • Shane Lowry
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    • J.T. Poston
    • Scottie Scheffler

• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
  • All three of the Par 5’s at Harbour Town Golf Links range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Thomas Detry
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Will Zalatoris

• Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 175-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Erik van Rooyen
  • Cameron Young
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Will Zalatoris
  • Austin Eckroat

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at Harbour Town has proven to be advantageous.

• Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
  • Cameron Davis (3 Events – 68.25 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Patrick Cantlay (6 Events – 68.32 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Erik van Rooyen (3 Events – 68.40 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (3 Events – 68.50 Scoring Average per Round)
  • J.T. Poston (3 Events – 68.56 Scoring Average per Round)

The Field:

This year’s RBC Heritage will feature a total of 69 competitors. Remarkably, 16 of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf will be contending, with only Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama, absent from the list.

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (’23), Jordan Spieth (’22), Webb Simpson (’20)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Alejandro Tosti, Austin Eckroat, Chandler Phillips, Eric Cole, Erik Barnes, Jake Knapp, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap

• Players with South Carolina ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Lucas Glover – Greenville, South Carolina
    • Kevin Kisner – Aiken, South Carolina
  • College:
    • Lucas Glover – Clemson

• Injury Report:

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Viktor Hovland (WD)
  • OUT: Victor Perez (bumped from Aon Swing 5)
  • IN: Kevin Kisner (Sponsor Exemption)
  • IN: Shane Lowry (Sponsor Exemption)
  • IN: Webb Simpson (Sponsor Exemption)
  • IN: Gary Woodland (Sponsor Exemption)
  • IN: Erik van Rooyen (Aon Next 10)

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.

Scottie Scheffler (+400) is coming off a win at the Masters where he cruised to victory, winning by four strokes. Remarkably, he has clinched victory in three out of his last four PGA Tour starts, maintaining an unbroken streak of top-10 finishes this season. At Harbour Town, his sole appearance resulted in a commendable T11 finish.

Xander Schauffele (+1000) has finished inside the top 10 in seven of his last nine starts on the PGA Tour. This will be his fifth trip to Hilton Head with his best finish of 4th coming last year.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) will make his third appearance in the RBC Heritage having finished T41 in 2020 and T58 in 2009. He’s finished inside the top 25 in each of his last six starts. His best finish during that span was 3rd at the Valero Texas Open.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished runner-up at the Masters last week in his tournament debut. After a slow start to the season, Aberg has four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts. This will be his first time playing in the RBC Heritage.

Patrick Cantlay (+1200) has finished inside the top 3 in four of his six prior appearances at Harbour Town. However, he has yet to win here despite coming close several times. Cantlay has only cracked the top 10 once this season which was at the Genesis Invitational. Last week at the Masters, Cantlay finished T22.

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score: 266.5 / -17.5 (Over -120/ Under +100)

In the past four editions of the RBC Heritage, the winning score has been below 266.5 (-17.5) three times. During that stretch, Webb Simpson set the course record in 2020 posting a -22.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -500)

The last two editions of the RBC Heritage have ended in a playoff. Last year, Matthew Fitzpatrick defeated Jordan Spieth and in 2022, Jordan Spieth defeated Patrick Cantlay.

To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

Recent Horses for Courses

Recent Donkeys for Courses:

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • Price: 28-1

• 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • Price: 33-1

• 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • Price: 150-1

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • Price: 30-1

• 2019: C.T. Pan (-12)
  • Price: 160-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • T10 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
  • T31 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • MC – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T14 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)

• 2022: Jordan Spieth
  • MC – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T35 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T35 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T26 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)

• 2021: Stewart Cink
  • T12 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T19 – The Honda Classic (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)

• 2020: Webb Simpson
  • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
  • N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T61 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • WON – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • 3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • T10 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)

• 2019: C.T. Pan
  • MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T42 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • T72- THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – The Honda Classic (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick

2022: Jordan Spieth

2021: Stewart Cink

2020: Webb Simpson

2019: C.T. Pan

Picks (Outrights):

• Collin Morikawa (+2000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Si Woo Kim (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Russell Henley (+4000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Shane Lowry (+4500) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Taylor Moore (+7000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.13 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Cameron Davis (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

• Lucas Glover (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+170) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

Matchups:

• Ludvig Aberg (-110) over Rory McIlroy (-110) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.10 to win 1.00 Units

Total Risk on Matchups: 1.10 Units

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the RBC Heritage: 5.23 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.