2024 NHL Playoff Series & Game 1 Preview – CAR/NYI & BOS/TOR

Saturday marks the commencement of the NHL Playoffs with two electrifying matchups: New York facing off against Carolina, and Toronto taking on Boston. Let’s delve into each series, dissecting the dynamics, and I’ll unveil my predictions for Game 1.

Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders

The Carolina Hurricanes clinched the 2nd spot in the Metropolitan Division with an impressive tally of 111 points this season. Unlike their struggles in the previous season’s playoffs, the Hurricanes enter this postseason on a high note, securing victory in seven of their last ten matchups.

Leading the charge for the Hurricanes in points this season is Sebastian Aho, boasting an impressive 89 points, comprised of 36 goals and 53 assists. The addition of Jake Guentzel to their top line alongside Aho and Jarvis has seamlessly integrated into the lineup, with the trio combining for an impressive 31 goals and 51 points in just 15 games since March. However, the adjustment hasn’t been as smooth for Evgeny Kuznetsov, formerly of the Washington Capitals, who has found himself shuffled around as coach Rod Brind’Amour seeks to solidify his lines for the playoffs.

Despite missing 23 games due to various injuries, Andrei Svechnikov enters the postseason riding a four-game point streak, showcasing his impact with 52 points over 59 games this season.

Meanwhile, the New York Islanders secured the 3rd spot in the Metropolitan Division with 94 points. They closed out the season on a strong note, winning eight of their last nine games. Notably, despite boasting the NHL’s weakest penalty kill, they managed to limit opponents to an average of just 2.00 goals against during their nine-game surge.

Matthew Barzal stood out as the sole Islanders player to maintain a point-per-game average this season, amassing 80 points across 80 games played, with 23 goals and 57 assists. On the blue line, Noah Dobson’s stellar performance has been a beacon of success, ranking 7th among defensemen in scoring with 70 points. However, Dobson’s availability for Game 1 hangs in the balance as he nurses an upper-body injury sustained against Montreal. His potential absence could pose a significant setback for the Islanders, having missed the past four games.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

These divisional rivals have clashed four times this season, with the series deadlocked at 2-2. Notably, two of those encounters extended into overtime, underscoring the tight competition between them.

Despite New York’s recent resurgence, they’re set to face a formidable opponent in Carolina, a team renowned for its minimal weaknesses. The Hurricanes wrapped up the season ranking 8th in goals scored per game and 4th in goals against per game, showcasing their balanced attack and defensive solidity. Moreover, their special teams units stand among the league’s best. Adding to their strength is the stellar performance of Frederik Andersen in goal since his return from injury.

For New York to stand a chance in this series, they’ll need to adopt a defensive stance, aiming to keep the scores low and capitalize on their defensive prowess. Semyon Varlamov’s impressive form, boasting a record of 8-1-1 with a 2.09 goals-against average since March 1st, could prove crucial in this regard.

While there’s potential for New York to snatch a game or two, particularly if Varlamov or Sorokin catch fire, the overall depth and strength of the Carolina team position them as the favorites to prevail in this series.

Pick: CAR Hurricanes to Win Game 1/CAR Hurricanes to Win Series (-135) – DraftKings

Game 1 Picks:

• Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation (-125) – DraftKings

I’ll include this pick alongside my previous projection, but my assessment remains unchanged—I foresee Carolina dominating this series. Their well-rounded lineup and formidable performance throughout the season make them a formidable force. Despite the Islanders’ late surge to secure a playoff spot, I find it challenging to envision them surpassing the Hurricanes.

Examining the Islanders’ recent 8-2 streak, it’s worth noting that many of their victories came against lower-ranked teams, with their only losses incurred against playoff contenders. Additionally, the Islanders have encountered difficulties on the road, boasting an 18-17-6 record, whereas the Hurricanes have demonstrated exceptional prowess at home with an impressive 27-10-4 record.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The Boston Bruins concluded the regular season with an impressive total of 109 points, falling just one point short of the Florida Panthers for the top seed in the Atlantic Division. Following their President’s Trophy win last season, where they set NHL records for most wins (65) and points (135), the Bruins suffered a disappointing early exit in the playoffs, ousted in the first round by the Florida Panthers.

Leading the charge in offensive prowess for the Bruins is David Pastrnak, amassing an impressive 110 points (47 goals, 63 assists), securing the team’s top points spot for the second consecutive season. Notably, Brad Marchand (67 points) and Charlie Coyle (60 points) also contributed significantly, although concerns lingered throughout the season regarding the team’s offensive depth.

Nevertheless, the Bruins leaned heavily on their defensive prowess, anchored by the goaltending tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark, ranking 7th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), has notably elevated his performance heading into the postseason, fueled by the desire to redeem last season’s disappointing .896 save percentage in the first-round series against Florida.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs secured third place in the Atlantic Division with 102 points. Last season, they broke a 19-year drought by advancing past the first round before succumbing to the Panthers.

Auston Matthews emerged as a standout performer, leading the NHL in goals with an impressive tally of 69, the most since Mario Lemieux’s 69 in 1995-96. He amassed 107 points in 81 games, marking a new career high. Additionally, William Nylander and Mitch Marner enjoyed stellar seasons, finishing with 98 and 85 points, respectively. Despite the trio’s contributions, the Leafs also boast four other players with 14 or more goals.

However, defensively, the Leafs experienced regression from the previous season, ranking 21st in goals against per game (GA/GP) and possessing the 22nd-worst penalty kill. In the goaltending department, Ilya Samsonov is slated to start Game 1, despite an inconsistent season marked by a 3.13 goals-against average and a .890 save percentage. Although facing struggles earlier in the season, he reclaimed the number-one goaltender position after being placed on waivers. Behind him, Joseph Woll has encountered difficulties since returning from injury, further highlighting the Leafs’ goaltending concerns.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

These divisional adversaries have crossed paths four times this season, with the Bruins asserting dominance in each encounter. While two of those matchups stretched into overtime, the Bruins commanded the scoreboard, outscoring the Leafs 15-7 across all four games. Their postseason history adds another layer of intensity, having clashed 16 times in Stanley Cup Playoff history, most recently in 2019, and meeting four times in the past 11 years.

For the Bruins to clinch victory in this series, they must focus on stifling Toronto’s offensive prowess, maintaining a tight defensive structure, and keeping the scoring low, all while relying on their formidable goaltending. Conversely, Toronto lacks the goaltending depth of Boston and will heavily lean on their offensive firepower to tilt the scales in their favor.

Anticipating a clash of contrasting play styles and the intricacies of team matchups, I foresee this series extending to seven games.

Pick: Series Total Games – 7 (+200)

Game 1 Picks:

• Boston Bruins ml (-125) – BetMGM

I anticipate a formidable performance from the Bruins in Game 1, particularly on home ice, where they’ve excelled this season with an impressive 24-11-6 record. Their perfect record against the Leafs this season further bolsters their confidence, showcasing their ability to neutralize Toronto’s potent offense.

The key factor tipping the scales in favor of the Bruins for Game 1 is the goaltending matchup. With Ilya Samsonov expected in net for the Leafs, recent struggles cast doubt on his ability to deliver a strong performance. Conversely, the Bruins are likely to rely on the in-form Linus Ullmark.

• Brad Marchand over 0.5 PTS (-135) – DraftKings

Marchand boasts an impressive track record against the Leafs, having tallied points in eight of his last ten matchups against them. Toronto’s defensive struggles have persisted throughout the season, a concern exacerbated as they head into the playoffs.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.