2024 Wells Fargo Championship Preview & Picks

Tournament Information:

• Dates: May 9th, 2024 – May 12th, 2024
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States
• Course: Quail Hollow Club
• Course Type: Classical/ Carolina
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,558 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion G12 bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis .125”
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .350”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 2”
• Bunkers: 61
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 7 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,578 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/ $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 69 Players
• Cut: No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden-Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 71.23 (+0.23), Rank 14 of 49
  • 2021: 72.26 (+1.26), Rank 5 of 51 
  • 2019: 71.76 (+0.76), Rank 8 of 49
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: +1
  • 2021: +2
  • 2019: -1

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: George Cobb (1961)
• Recent Renovations: Tom Fazio (1997,2016,2013)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Riviera Country Club – The Genesis Invitational
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – the Memorial Tournament
  • Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Designer Link (George Cobb (1961)):
  • East Lake Golf Club – 1959 Renovation – TOUR Championship

• Comparable Location (Charlotte, North Carolina):
  • Sedgefield Country Club – Greensboro, North Carolina – Wyndham Championship

• Comparable Yardage (7,558 Yards):
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 7,533 Yards – the Memorial Tournament
  • Augusta National – 7,545 Yards – Masters Tournament
  • Plantation Course at Kapalua – 7,596 Yards – The Sentry

• Comparable Greens (Champion G12 bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis .125”):
  • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa Trivialis / perennial ryegrass .100” – WM Phoenix Open
  • TPC Sawgrass – TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis / velvet bentgrass .100” – THE PLAYERS
  • TPC Louisiana – TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis .100” – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
  • Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis .120” – Valspar Championship

• Comparable Average Green Size (6,578 sq. ft.):
  • Grand Reserve Golf Club – 6,500 sq. ft. – Puerto Rico Open
  • TPC Twin Cities – 6,500 sq. ft. – 3M Open

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, May 9th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, May 10th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, May 11th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:15 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, May 12th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:15 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

• Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms 84 F, 15 mp/h WSW, 71% Humidity, 38% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: PM Thunderstorms 76 F, 10 mp/h NW, 61% Humidity, 52% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 73 F, 9 mp/h WNW, 47% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 8 mp/h WNW, 50% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

Quail Hallow, located in Charlotte, North Carolina was founded in 1959. The course was designed by George Cobb and opened two years later. Since 2003, Quail Hallow has played host to the Wells Fargo Championship every year besides two (2017 & 2022). In 2017, Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship, and in 2022, the President’s Cup.

The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 as the Wachovia Championship. From 2009-10, the tournament was changed to the Quail Hollow Championship. After taking over the main sponsorship of the event two years prior, Wells Fargo attached its name to the event in 2011.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 3, Rory McIlroy (2010, 2015, 2021)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 265, Clark (2023). McIlroy’s 21-under 267 in 2015 came when par for the course was 72.
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, McIlroy (Round 3, 2015)

Scorecard:

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18 (“Green Mile”)

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Each of the past three winners at the Quail Hollow Club ranked 12th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge
    • Corey Conners
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Shane Lowry
    • Akshay Bhatia

• Scrambling
  • The Greens in Regulation Percentage at the Quail Hollow Club is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game. Each of the past four winners ranked 2nd or better in Scrambling % amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Alex Noren
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Mackenzie Hughes
    • Justin Rose

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The greens at the Quail Hollow Club are Champion G12 bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis .125”. Each of the past three winners at the Quail Hollow Club ranked 3rd or better in SG: Putting amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Nick Taylor
    • Brian Harman
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Billy Horschel
    • Russell Henley

• Driving Distance
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Byeong-Hun An
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Gary Woodland
    • Stephan Jaeger

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
• Two of the four Par 3’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Matthew Fitzpatrick
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Corey Conners
    • Billy Horschel

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
  • Six of the eleven Par 4’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Kevin Tway

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the three Par 5’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Alex Noren
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Mackenzie Hughes
    • Cameron Davis
    • Martin Trainer

• Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 175-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Cameron Young
  • Austin Eckroat
  • Eric Cole
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Will Zalatoris

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Quail Hollow Club has proven to be advantageous.

• Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
  • Justin Rose
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Jason Day
  • Max Homa

The Field:

This year’s Wells Fargo Championship will feature a total of 69 players.

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Wyndham Clark (’23), Max Homa (’22, ’19), Rory McIlroy (’21, ’15, ’10), Jason Day (’18), Brian Harman (’17), Rickie Fowler (’12), Lucas Glover (’11)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap

• Injury Report:

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Ludvig Aberg (Knee)

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites in this week’s event.

Rory McIlroy (+650)

Xander Schauffele (+1000)

Wyndham Clark (+1400)

Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

Max Homa (+2000)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score: 269.5 / -14.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

The winning score at this event has been above 269.5 two of the last three years.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -500)

There has not been a playoff at this event since 2016.

To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

Recent Horses for Courses

Recent Donkeys for Courses

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
  • Price: 80-1

• 2022: Max Homa (-8)
  • Price: 40-1

• 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • Price: 18-1

• 2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A

• 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • Price: 500-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Wyndham Clark (Quail Hollow Club)
  • T24 – Mexico Open (PGA)
  • 3 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T29 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • 6 – Corales Puntacana Championship (PGA)
  • 5 – Valspar Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Max Homa (TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm)
  • T21 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T48 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T35 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T13 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T17 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)

• 2021: Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow Club)
  • MC – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T28 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T10 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T6 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)

• 2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

• 2019: Max Homa (Quail Hollow Club)
  • MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T42 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T52 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • T20 – The Honda Classic (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Wyndham Clark

2022: Max Homa

2021: Rory McIlroy

2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

2019: Max Homa

Picks (Outrights):

• Max Homa (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Justin Thomas (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Sahith Theegala (+2800) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

• Adam Scott (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Cameron Young (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

• Corey Conners (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

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Total Risk on the Wells Fargo Championship: 3.16 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.