The 156th edition of the Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday, June 8th.
Dating back to 1867, this prestigious event stands as one of America’s oldest horse races, marking the final leg of the Triple Crown series, succeeding the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition, from adorning the winning horse with a blanket of white carnations to the pre-race anthem rendition of “New York, New York.” It has witnessed historic moments like Secretariat’s legendary record-breaking victory in 1973 and recent Triple Crown victories by American Pharoah and Justify.
Traditionally held at Belmont Race Course over the mile and a half distance, changes have been made for the 2024 edition. The race will cover a slightly shorter distance of 1+1⁄4 miles due to the smaller dimensions of the Saratoga dirt track. New York State Governor Kathy Hochul announced on December 6, 2023, that the race would move to Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. Alongside this relocation, the purse of the race will swell to $2 million.
Further changes were revealed by the New York Racing Association in March 2024, indicating that the 2025 Belmont Stakes would also be relocated to Saratoga, pending regulatory approval.
For a deeper dive into the Belmont Stakes, don’t miss out on our recent podcast episode.
105k Maiden Special Weight (7/29/23): (1st) Seize the Grey, (2nd) Dornoch
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
(#1) SIEZE THE GREY
(#6) DORNOCH
(#10) MINDFRAME
Off the Pace
(#2) RESILIENCE
(#4) THE WINE STEWARD
(#5) ANTIQUARIAN
Middle of the Pact
(#3) MYSTIK DAN
Back of the Pact
(#7) PROTECTIVE
Closers
(#9) SIERRA LEONE
Picks:
This year’s Belmont Stakes boasts an exceptional field. Mystik Dan, victor of the Kentucky Derby, and Seize the Grey, triumphant in the Preakness Stakes, headline the lineup. Surprisingly, they are not the morning line favorites. Sierra Leone, who narrowly missed victory in the Kentucky Derby, holds the top spot in terms of odds. Following closely behind is Mindframe, despite having only two races under his belt, yet still emerging as a favorite.
The competition features a host of other formidable contenders. Resilience, winner of the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes, enters the fray with impressive credentials. Antiquarian, who displayed remarkable prowess in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, emerges as a lively longshot. Completing the roster of contenders are Dornoch, victor of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, and Honor Marie, who secured a second-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby.
The Wine Steward and Protective are two horses I consider less likely to contend for the win.
$10 WIN – #5 ANTIQUARIAN, #6 DORNOCH
TICKET COST $20.00
One of my long shots for this race is the number 5, Antiquarian. With only four starts to his name, Antiquarian broke his maiden in his second outing on a sloppy surface at Fair Grounds. Despite a setback in the Louisiana Derby, where he broke through the starting gate before the race, he showed resilience to stalk the pace and stay in contention until the homestretch, eventually tiring. However, he regained momentum in his latest outing, clinching victory in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes. Notably, this race has produced four Belmont winners since 2010, including last year’s Arcangelo. While Antiquarian will need to enhance his speed figures on Saturday, his pedigree suggests the potential for success over this distance. Additionally, the fact that Todd Pletcher has secured victory in the Belmont four times adds further promise to this colt’s prospects.
My other long shot in this race is the number 6, Dornoch. Initiating his graded stakes campaign with triumphs in both the Grade II Remsen Stakes, where he defeated fellow entrant and morning line favorite Sierra Leone, and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, Dornoch showed early promise. However, in his subsequent outing, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, the pace proved too fast, hindering his performance. In the Kentucky Derby, Dornoch encountered difficulties from the start, struggling out of the gate and failing to execute the planned strategy. With a more favorable position in the Belmont, where Saez can adopt an aggressive approach in the early stages, Dornoch has the potential to excel. If he can secure a strong start and dictate the pace, I believe this horse stands a good chance of success.
$4 EXACTA – 10 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
TICKET COST $20.00
Another contender I’m eyeing for victory in this race is the number 10, Mindframe. Despite being the least experienced colt in the field, he has showcased impressive performances in his first two starts. Mindframe broke his maiden in a 7F sprint at Gulfstream Park in March, winning by over 13 lengths and posting a remarkable 103 Beyer speed figure. Transitioning to a mile and an eighth in his next outing, he triumphed in an Allowance Optional Claimer at Churchill Downs, winning by over seven lengths. While Mindframe faces a significant step up in class, his previous speed figures highlight his talent and potential for success in this race. The combination of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Todd Pletcher further enhances his chances. Rather than solely placing a win bet, I intend to utilize Mindframe in an exacta with other horses underneath to enhance potential returns.
For the exacta, I’m selecting Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Antiquarian, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan have demonstrated their impressive abilities with recent victories. I’ve already discussed the strengths of Antiquarian and Dornoch earlier. As for Sierra Leone, there’s speculation about whether the distance reduction from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles will affect this closer positively or negatively. Flavien Prat will take over on the mount from Tyler Gaffalione so we may see him try to take a different approach with his horse. The Belmont hasn’t traditionally favored deep closers so I’m guessing he’ll try to emulate this horse’s first ride where he was positioned in the middle of the pack making it easier for him to close on the field down the stretch. I believe the decrease in distance hurts this horse limiting the additional quarter mile he had to close on the leader. While I fully expect him to hit the board, I think we see early speed prevail in the Belmont Stakes.
Longshot Superfecta:
$1 SUPERFECTA – 10 / 9 / 1, 3, 5, 6 / ALL
TICKET COST $28.00
If $28.00 is more than you’re comfortable spending on a Superfecta, you can also play this as a 50-cent Superfecta which would cut the ticket price in half.
TOTAL COST $40.00 ($68.00)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
