Baseball season continues chugging along and with the NBA coming to a close, hockey one game away potentially from being done and two months until football season it is really time to go deep on baseball.
My Analysis today turns to Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL where the Chicago Cubs (34-39) will host the San Francisco Giants (36-37) at 8:05 ET. The current line sits with both teams at -110 with an Over/Under of 9.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 83 degrees under mostly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out hard to left center at roughly 15mph.
The Cubs have really struggled lately after peaking at 17-9 in late April. Currently they are riding a rough stretch of 10-22 their last 32 contests. They are really being let down by their bullpen who is now carrying a 4.49 ERA and is the 2nd worst in the majors since May 1st.
The Cubs will trot out Justin Steele Tuesday night. Steele has been solid, but not spectacular and has been let down by the bullpen a handful of times as well. This will be his tenth start on the season and he is still looking for his first win. He owns a 3.22 ERA and a 3.72 xFIP. The difference is being driven by his luck in the BABIP department with opponents only putting up a .257 mark against him. He has an 8.58 K/9 with a 2.32 BB/9 for a solid ratio. He has thrown four very good outings in a row only allowing two earned runs in his last 25 innings to go along with twenty five strikeouts and seven walks over those four starts.
The Giants are plodding along kind of as expected with a near .500 record. What hasn’t been as predicted is the offense is actually in the upper half of the league rankings, while the pitching staff has really struggled. I thought the strengths would be the other way around. Blake Snell having issues along with the bullpen (4.32 ERA) are the main drivers of the pitching issue, but the young hitters have performed above expectations.
Logan Webb will get the ball for the Giants tonight in Wrigley. Webb has been very good this season as per usual, with a 6-5 record and a 3.02 ERA, which looks to be right on with his 3.07 xFIP. The ratios are solid with 7.6 K/9 and 1.95 BB/9. He hasn’t gone less than six innings in his last seven outings and has struck out at least five batters in each of those games.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? Well the weather is certainly a part of my decision. When the temps/dewpoints are high and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley it really is a different game being played. What is normally a 330 foot fly ball to left center is going to be onto Waveland Avenue this evening.
The key metrics when it comes to my play is two-fold. First let’s look at the offenses. Versus right-handed pitchers, the Cubs are 25th in MLB with a .671 OPS. Against left-handed pitchers the Giants are 5th in MLB with a .767 OPS. That’s over a 100 points difference for the start of this match-up. Secondly, when the ball is flying out of the ball park it is always a good idea to check out the pitchers Home Runs allowed tendencies. Steele sits at 1.07 HR/9, while Webb comes in at 0.39 HR/9. These metrics are driven by their abilities to force hitters into ground balls. Steele only has a 42.6% GB rate, while he also owns an inflated 38.3% FB rate. Webb on the other hand is at 56.3% GB Rate vs only a 20.9% Fly Ball rate. This major difference is where I have to make my play.
Taking these key stats into the equation I have my internal number at -130 for the Giants so I am playing them at the -110 on the board. I will also sprinkle a little on the Giants F5 -.5 for +125. If you want to take the bullpens out of the equation and just play the Giants F5 at -125 I don’t hate that route, but it isn’t very far off where a value it.
Giants -110 1 Unit
Giants F5 -.5 +125 .5 Units
