The Outback Bowl, Tampa Florida – Mississippi State vs Iowa +7 O/U 44
Dual action sharp and public on Mississippi State bringing this spread from -5 to -7. Iowa is without their TE Noah Fant cause he is holding out for the draft. They also have had some banged up TEs this year but I would be hard pressed to think that their isn’t another 6’7 corn fed Hawkeye kid that that catch the ball and run a little bit in this state. Both these teams are better than what they showed during the regular season. No huge wins and had opportunities but fizzed out at the end. Both teams have top 6 defenses both allowing less than 300 yards per game with mediocre offenses. Both programs also had hard schedules. Kirk Ferentz has more experience then Joe Moorhead due to Joe’s first year as the boss. Ran the numbers and I have Mississippi state winning 23 to 20.5 so this is a play for me. This low total tells me how to bet this game
Iowa +7 and ML
The Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida – Kentucky vs Penn State -6.5 O/U 47.5
It is pretty strange that Kentucky football is looking better than Kentucky basketball so far this year. I am very impressed by some of their wins at Florida, Missouri and home against Mississippi State. This team was rewarded with a great bowl game and it is well deserved. Mark Stoops did a fantastic job with these lower recruits. Penn State on the other hand has had a typical Penn State year blowing out a lot of teams but still falling short in the Big games vs Michigan and Ohio State. What I will say about the Nitney Lions is that they will be motivated for this game. James Franklin has an impressive 5-2 ATS in bowl games and this will be Tracey McSorleys final game and final audition to the NFL. Penn State has quietly had a great defense allowing only 4.7 yards per play with a very tough schedule. Kentucky gave up 5.2 on defense. I do like both running backs Miles Sanders for Penn State is a 5 star guy and Benny Snell of Kentucky played just as well but the Nitney Lions are better at stopping the run allowing only 4 yards per carry. Penn State has a more explosive offense than the Wildcats averaging about 6.2 yards per play to 5.7. The stats are screaming at me to take Penn State and the kicker is that McSorley will have a great game and audition for the NFL.
Penn State -6.5
The Fiesta bowl, Glendale Arizona – UCF vs LSU -7.5 O/U 55.5
It is too hard to cap this especially with McKenzie Milton out for Central Florida. One would think that LSU should be able to just run the ball all over the black knights with UCF allowing 4.8 Yards per rush on defense in the AAC which isn’t good at all. What is LSU’s Motivation here? Would they be embarrassed like Auburn if they lose this game or would they rather stick it to the committee and potentially the integrity of this years national champion/Alabama if UCF remains undefeated? Well if you like crazy conspiracy theories than maybe take Central Florida on the Money Line +245 and if you don’t then LSU should be able to pound this team -7.5. I personally hate this +7.5 spread and do not think it will come into play. This game might have to be a live betting situation such as what Chris said.
Live bet during the first drive. If it is LSU looks great take them. If not then take UCF.
The Rose Bowl, Pasadena California – Ohio State vs Washington +7 O/U 57.5
So when Urban Meyer announced that he is again retiring from College Football, everyone and their mom decided to go and bet Ohio State driving this line up to 7. 83% of the tickets are on Ohio State and 89% of the money is as well. It’s almost like Washington doesn’t even deserve to play in this game. Washington’s players must really hate their coach Chris Peterson. The Husky’s Quarterback Jake Browning must not want to play in the NFL. All sarcasm aside I actually have Ohio State from a power ratings perspective about 8 points better than Washington but if I took Ohio State it isn’t because of this motivation factor because we also do not know what the underclassman think about the coach who recruited them leaving to be assistant Athletic Director at the University. One thing that is for sure is that Ohio State’s defense was not good this year allowing 5.8 yards per play to Washington’s 4.6. The Buckeye’s edge out Washington at 6.7 yards per play on offense to the Husky’s 6.1 One thing that I found is that Washington has been a terrible second half team. They rank 126th at 8.2 points in the second half while Ohio State ranks 4th at 21.8. Ohio State has a better points average at 21-17 also in the first half but Washington has had the harder overall schedule. I am going to play this one and take Washington to cover 3.5 in the first half and Ohio State in the second.
Washington +3.5 first half and Ohio State Second Half
The Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA – Texas vs Georgia -13 O/U 58
We all know who Georgia is as that team who is Top 4 that isn’t in the playoffs. My big question here is what is Georgia’s motivation after losing that game with that terrible fake punt call vs Alabama. They had them! How defeating of a loss and does beating Texas prove anything? Most Power ratings has Georgia by 11 to 14 points. Jake Fromm is a baller and I think he will try to win but Sam Ellinger from Texas is also a winner and we don’t have to talk about Tom Herman as a dog. Texas plays up or down to their competition. I have this game Georgia 35-23 but no lean on the side due to motivational questions….
Small lean to Georgia -13 and lean over 58
