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Miami vs Cal +10.5 O/U 54.5
I have had this game circled for a while now. Some may think that the Canes have a little extra rest if you do not do your research here. The Cal Bears are coming off of a nice bye week and this team has started the season out strong beating teams like San Diego State by three touchdowns, and Auburn all the way on the East Coast. I will excuse their loss to Florida State a few weeks back, as this was a do or die for the Semis. We all know how good Miami has been accumulating a massive 4.09 net yards per play, but we also have to factor in that these performances were mainly against tomato cans this year. Florida has been an abomination of an SEC team, and it took a miracle to beat Virginia Tech last Friday. At least the Bears played at Auburn and at Florida State this year boosting their strength of schedule ranking to 65 of Sagarin while Miami’s sits at 92. This is not just a good spot for Cal, it is also a rough spot for Miami as they are sandwiched between Virginia Tech and at Louisiville. This could be a good sandwich spot to fade the canes. What this Cal team has does well is passing the ball. Fernando Mendoza has a nice 67.5 completion percentage at a 138.5 passer rating. Should Cal be down to this beast of a Miami team, the back door will be open. I also think that coach Justin Wilcox has some experience playing against Mario Cristobal with his time at Oregon. Cal also faced the likes of Cam Ward last year, when they won the game against Washington State 42-39. That has to account for something as coach Justin Wilcox has good experience against this lad. I think Cal’s defense is good enough to slow down Miami’s offense ranking at 67th in success rate and 32nd against the run in success rate. Take the Bears here +10.5
Bears +10.5 – 2 stars
Kansas vs ASU -2.5 O/U 50
I still do not understand what people are not seeing in Kansas this season. Apparently, losing Andy Kotelnicki was a much bigger blow than we thought before the season. Now we are asking Kansas to lose by three or less points on the road to a feisty Arizona State team? ASU is off of the bye this week and had a lot of time to think about the Texas Tech loss. Kansas’s strength has really been their rushing ranking 25th in success rate and 18th in yards per rush. The problem is for that is that ASU’s strength is stopping the run ranking 6th in opponent yards per rush at 2.55. The Sun Devils should find success running the football against Kansas ranking 25th in rushing success rate to Kansas ranking 66th in success rate in stopping the run. Running back Cam Skattlebo has been a beast for ASU at 5.03 yards per rush and five TDs over four games thus far. The Jayhawks are 0-5 this year against the spread while the Sun Devils are 3-1. I will ride that trend for another week in a night game at home.
Arizona State -2.5 – 3 stars
