Arkansas State vs Texas State -14.5 O/U 65.5
This should be a fun game in the fun belt. This total shows a lot of scoring may happen. Both teams here rank in the top 24 in pace of play. The big thing here is the spread as the Bobcats have a large one here to cover. This game may constitute a revenge spot for Texas State as they were beaten 77-31 here in 2023. My question is, how many points are we giving for revenge. As bad as Arkansas State has played at -1.88 yards per play, this team at least played Iowa State and Michigan. Their strength of schedule ranks 70th on Sagarin. Texas State on the other hand had their hardest game at home against Arizona State. Their schedule ranks a measly 112th respectively. Even with this being a revenge spot, somehow Texas State tends to throw up on themselves. There must be something that Butch Jones knows that enables his team to score against the bobcats. My power ratings has this a a 9 point favorite for Texas State. If we adjust for extra rest and revenge, we maybe get to 12 or 13. The total tells us that both teams are going to score. I am taking the Red Raiders and I feel that the back door is wide open.
Arkansas State +14.5 – 2 stars
