2024 ZOZO Championship Preview & Picks

Last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, Davis Thompson (T5) and Taylor Pendrith (8th) were our closest outright selections. We hit one of our two Top 20 bets with Harry Hall (+175), while our other T20 pick, Seamus Power (+135), struggled failing to make the weekend.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa is aiming to become the first player to defend his title at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since that victory, he’s had a solid season with eight top-10 finishes, including two runner-up performances.

The PGA Tour Heads to Japan

The FedExCup Fall continues with the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Chiba, Japan, marking the first international event of the series. Collin Morikawa returns, hoping to defend his title, alongside former ZOZO champions Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, as well as two-time major winner Xander Schauffele.

The ZOZO is the fifth of eight FedExCup Fall tournaments, where players are competing to secure TOUR cards for the 2025 season.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: October 24th – October 27th, 2024
• Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
• Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,079 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Zoysiagrass
• Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
• Bunkers: N/A
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,500,000 /$1,530,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 78 Players
• Cut: No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Hole 18 (repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 70.51 (+0.51), Rank 12 of 58
  • 2022: 69.52 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41
  • 2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Rank 11 of 50

Social Media:

• ZOZO Championship – (@zozochamp)

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Kinya Fujita (1976)
• Renovations: PGA Renovations (2016-2019)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
  • Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open in Hawaii
  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship

• Comparable Yardage (7,079 Yards):
  • Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) – 7,060 Yards – The RSM Classic
  • PGA WEST (La Quinta Country Club) – 7,060 Yards – The American Express

• Comparable Greens (Bentgrass):
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Bentgrass .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
  • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
  • Black Desert Resort – 007XL bentgrass .120” – Black Desert Championship
  • TPC Deere Run – L-93 bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
  • TPC Summerlin – Dominator bentgrass .100” – Shriners Children’s Open

• Comparable Average Green Size (5,500 sq. ft.):
  • TPC Sawgrass – 5,500 sq. ft. – THE PLAYERS Championship
  • TPC Deere Run – 5,500 sq. ft. – John Deere Classic

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Wednesday, October 23rd, 2024 into Thursday, October 24th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
• Round 2: Thursday, October 24th, 2024 into Friday, October 25th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
• Round 3: Friday, October 25th, 2024 into Saturday, October 26th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
• Round 4: Saturday, October 26th, 2024 into Sunday, October 27th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Since then, with the restrictions lifted, it has been held again at Narashino Country Club the past two editions.

Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.

Tournament Records:

• 72-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
  • 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
• 18-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
  • 61, Richy Werenski (Second round, 2020 @ Sherwood), John Huh (Second round, 2023 @ Narashino Country Club)

• Largest Margin of Victory:
  • 6 Strokes – Collin Morikawa (2023)

Course Records:

• 72-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
  • 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
• 18-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
  • 61, John Huh (Second round, 2023)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.

The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.

Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.

No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. All three of the Par 5’s had a scoring average under par last season.

No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

Key Statistics:

As the ZOZO Championship takes place at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (<7,200 Yards)
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club course layout combines challenging approach shots with strategic tee placements. Excelling in this area demonstrates a player’s capacity to consistently hit greens in regulation, creating more opportunities for birdies.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Justin Thomas
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Sungjae Im
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Kevin Yu
    • Carson Young
    • Chan Kim
    • Sam Stevens

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • A strong iron game is crucial for success at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Doug Ghim
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Mac Meissner
    • Gary Woodland
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Matt Kuchar
    • Andrew Novak
    • Harry Hall
    • Zac Blair

• Good Drives Gained
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Ben Kohles
    • Gary Woodland
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Matt Kuchar
    • Patrick Fishburn
    • Andrew Putnam
    • C.T. Pan
    • Mac Meissner
    • Carson Young

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • The Greens at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club are bentgrass.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Harry Hall
    • Max Greyserman
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Ben Silverman
    • Victor Perez
    • Justin Lower
    • Brendon Todd
    • Andrew Novak
    • K.H. Lee
    • Davis Riley

• Par 3 Scoring
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club features an unusual layout with five Par 3’s.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Harry Hall
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Nico Echavarria
    • Mac Meissner
    • Kensei Hirata
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • C.T. Pan
    • Maverick McNealy
    • David Skinns

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the three Par 5’s at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • Patrick Rodgers
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Eric Cole
    • Harry Hall
    • Ben Silverman
    • S.H. Kim
    • Patrick Fishburn

• Proximity Gained: 175-200, 200+ Yards
  • Most approach shots at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club come from the 175+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • David Skinns
  • Doug Ghim
  • Nate Lashley
  • Gary Woodland
  • Chandler Phillips
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Adam Svensson
  • Mac Meissner

• Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Max Greyserman
  • Chandler Phillips
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Harry Hall
  • Mac Meissner
  • J.J. Spaun
  • Andrew Novak
  • Ryan Fox
  • Nick Taylor

• Bogey Avoidance
  • Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Max Greyserman
    • Matt Kuchar
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Mac Meissner
    • Gary Woodland
    • Doug Ghim
    • Rico Hoey
    • Beau Hossler

• Scrambling Gained
  • A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Max Greyserman
    • Harry Hall
    • Brendon Todd
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Satoshi Kodaira
    • Davis Riley
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Collin Morikawa

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club has shown to be beneficial for players.

• Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, Last 5 Editions):
  • Beau Hossler
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Sungjae Im
  • J.J. Spaun
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Luke List
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Taylor Moore

The Field:

This year’s ZOZO Championship will feature a total of 78 competitors.

• Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
  • Top 60 Available on Current Season’s FedExCup Points list
  • Top 8 available from 2024 JGTO Prize Money List through Japan Open
  • Winner 2024 BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship Mori Building Cup
  • Current Season’s JGTO Membership
  • Sponsors Exemptions – Restricted

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Collin Morikawa (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Ben Kohles, Benjamin Silverman, Carson Young, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Skinns, Jacob Bridgeman, Mac Meissner, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Ren Yonezawa, Rico Hoey, Ryan Fox, Sami Valimaki, Seamus Power, Taisei Shimizu, Takahiro Hataji, Takashi Ogiso, Victor Perez, Vincent Whaley, Yuta Sugiura

• Sponsors Exemptions:
  • Gary Woodland, Satoshi Kodaira, Zac Blair, Joel Dahmen, Takahiro Hataji

• Players with ties to Japan in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Takahiro Hataji
    • Kensei Hirata
    • Ryo Hisatsune
    • Shugo Imahira
    • Ryo Ishikawa
    • Hiroshi Iwata
    • Takumi Kanaya
    • Naoyuki Kataoka
    • Yuto Katsuragawa
    • Ryosuke Kinoshita
    • Satoshi Kodaira
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Takashi Ogiso
    • Kaito Onishi
    • Taisei Shimizu
    • Yuta Sugiura
    • Ren Yonezawa

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • Emiliano Grillo WD: Carson Young IN

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:

Xander Schauffele (+450) is having a career-best season, winning two major championships. His last three starts include a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T5 at the BMW Championship, and T4 at the TOUR Championship. Schauffele has competed in all five editions of this tournament, with three top-20 finishes.

Collin Morikawa (+650) makes his first start since finishing runner-up at the TOUR Championship. While he came close to a win this season, his last TOUR victory was at the 2023 ZOZO Championship. This will be his sixth appearance in the event.

Hideki Matsuyama (+750) returns after finishing T9 at the TOUR Championship, having withdrawn from the BMW Championship due to back pain. This season, he won The Genesis Invitational and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Matsuyama will make his sixth appearance here, where he won in 2021.

Sungjae Im (+1400) makes his first start after finishing 7th at the TOUR Championship and T11 at the BMW Championship. This is his fifth appearance in the event, with his best finish being T3 in 2019.

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

• Will There Be a Playoff at the ZOZO Championship? (Yes +350 / No -475)

A playoff has never determined the winner of the ZOZO Championship.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the ZOZO Championship? (Yes +100 / No -140)

In 2023, there were no holes-in-one recorded at the tournament.

Recent Horses for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):

Previous Winners, Scores and Prices:

• 2023: Collin Morikawa (-14) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 11-1
• 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 40-1
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 16-1
• 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
  • Price: 28-1
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
  • Price: 33-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Collin Morikawa
  • T6 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T25 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)

• 2022: Keegan Bradley
  • T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)

• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama
  • T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
  • T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)

• 2020: Patrick Cantlay
  • T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)

• 2019: Tiger Woods
  • T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Collin Morikawa

2022: Keegan Bradley

2021: Hideki Matsuyama

2020: Patrick Cantlay

• Tournament Debut

2019: Tiger Woods

• Tournament Debut

Picks:

Outrights:

• Sahith Theegala (+1800) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

• Kurt Kitayama (+2500) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Si Woo Kim (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Matt Kuchar (+8000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

Top 20 (including ties):

• Rickie Fowler (+160) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

• Gary Woodland (+170) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the ZOZO Championship: 3.10 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.