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Notre Dame vs Navy +13.5 O/U 50.5
This should be a fun game with two very good teams playing it out on a neutral field at MetLife Stadium in Jersey. No way is Notre Dame only a 13 point favorite here right? Notre Dame smoked this team last year by 39 points right? Hmmm. I am not so sure. Let’s break it down. First, of all, we are starting to see why Brian Newberry is now the head coach of this team. This looks well deserved as Navy is undefeated at 6-0 at 5-1 ATS with a +14.4 ATS margin! Notre Dame has done well this season at 6-1 and 4-2-1 ATS. One might say that Navy hasn’t played anyone, but it’s not like Notre Dame’s schedule was all that since their big win at Texas A&M and their gross loss to Northern Illinois. When the Huskies beat the Irish, it was done on the ground, and that is their weakness this year ranking 73rd in defensive rushing success rate. The Midshipmen rank 8th on offense in rushing success rate and 5th in EPA. Notre Dame was able to stop the triple option last year, but this year Navy’s offense is a little different. Notre Dame was able to stop the triple option last year, but this year Navy’s offense is a little different. OC Drew Cronic moved to some T-wing concepts that will confuse Notre Dame from what they have seen last year. Navy has also mixed in some passing concepts that has landed quarterback Blake Horvath with 10 TDs and only 1 interception. I think Navy covers this. They are the best team in the AAC.
Navy +13.5 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Wisconsin +6.5 O/U 47.5
What have you done for me lately is the theme to this handicap. Penn State is coming off of the bye nice, crisp and undefeated. I am not a huge fan of going into the bye without a blemish on the record. Wisconsin started the year pretty bad with close wins vs inferior opponents and bad losses against Alabama and USC, but I will say that it took some time for Brayden Locke to get his feet wet when the Badgers lost their quarterback early against Bama in Tyler Van Dyke, and since the USC choke, Wisconsin has been quite solid. The Badgers had won each of the next three games vs Big 10 opponents by 20 points or more. Two of those games were away. It looks like coach Luke Fickell finally got these guys playing some good football. Penn State on the other hand struggled at home vs Illinois, which is understandable, but they then only beat a bad UCLA team at home by 16 points, and they should have lost to USC on the road. As bad as Wisconsin has been, they do have a nice .8 net yards per play for the season. Wisconsin ranks 30th in offensive success rate and 27th on defense. Penn State ranks 4th in both offensive success rate and defensive success rate, but they haven’t played anyone of note minus USC. I like how the Badgers are playing this year, and I think that they move the ball in a wild night game atmosphere enough to cover the spread at home. Looking at conference only stats, Wisconsin is number 2 in yards per play and number 2 in opponent yards per play. Penn State is 5th in both categories. If you look at how Wisconsin and Penn State have been playing of late, you might think the Badgers could win outright. Take Wisconsin.
Wisconsin +6.5 – 2 stars
