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USF vs Charlotte +2.5 O/U 53
This is a good betting game for the weekend slate. Neither team is bowl eligible, but the 49ers are fighting for their lives having to win the last three. The reason that USF is favored here is due to their defense. In saying that, I think that their numbers are inflated some. It is true the bulls rank 41st in defensive success rate, but their strength of schedule only ranks 79th compared to Charlotte who ranks 55th. USF ranks 78th in defensive EPA while Charlotte ranks 91st. On Offense, both teams are bad ranking 118th for USF and 120th in success rate for Charlotte. No real advantage there. Yards per play is close to equal as they are both around a net -.8. What I like about Charlotte here is that they just had to play three very rough games against the top three in the ACC in Navy, Memphis and Tulane. They are also coming off of the bye week with time to fix some of those turnover issues. I think the spot screams Charlotte here while South Florida may still be on their backup quarterback. Take the 49ers.
Charlotte +2.5 – 2 stars
Tennessee vs Georgia -9.5 O/U 48.5
Sometimes you have to use almost the exact same handicap as you did the week before. We are in that spot again, except with a much larger point spread. What would the line be last week on Ole Miss if they were playing Tennessee at home? Maybe six or seven points? Georgia is laying a lot here and I do not think that it is warranted. Just like last week, I have to say that the Bulldogs have two advantages here. Coaching is number one and strength of schedule is number two. In saying that, Tennessee, like Ole Miss, also has better numbers than Georgia. The Vols have a .79 net yards per play advantage over the Bulldogs. The Vols rank 22nd in offensive success rate and 46th in offensive EPA while the Dogs rank 33rd in offensive success rate and 44th in offensive EPA respectively. On defense, the Vols rank number 2 in success rate and number 4 in defensive EPA. The Bulldogs rank 14th and 20th respectively. Imagine wearing a blindfold to the actual team names here to not see that it’s Georgia hosting Tennessee. Would that make a difference in choosing to take over seven points? The Dogs are 2-7 ATS thus far. I have to keep rolling against them Dogs and take the Vols.
Tennessee +9.5 – 2 stars
