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Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State -4.5 O/U 58
This will be a home game for the Gamecocks. It’s nice to see them get this far in only their second year of FBS play. Glad those terrible rules are gone. Despite the regular-season finale loss, the Gamecocks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last five heading into the title bout. I struggle with this handicap as I know that Jacksonville State did try to take Western Kentucky out last week in a be careful what you wish for scenario. They injured QB Tyler Huff who is questionable for this game. It’s not like their backup is that bad in Logan Smothers, but I think it’s still a downgrade. Jacksonville State might as well be an option team as they have the 4th highest run rate in the nation. Western Kentucky only ranks 102nd in opponent yards per rush and 99th in opponent rush EPA. Looking at last week’s game, the Hilltoppers did a decent job in stopping the run. Was the Gamecocks being vanilla in their play calling? I wasn’t convinced. Either way, I like the under. I think both teams stop each other enough just like last week’s 19-17 game.
Under 58 – 2 stars
UNLV vs Boise State -4.5 O/U 57.5
This is going to be a great game for the Mountain West Championship in Albertson’s stadium in Boise Idaho, AKA the Smurf turf. Many people think that Boise State has some sort of an unreal home field advantage, but the truth is that since 2010, the Broncos are only 42-49-1 at 46.2% which is a losing trend. Looking at the ‘lytics, I definitely see a path for UNLV here. Both teams are great at running the football ranking 16th in rush EPA for the Rebels and 6th in rush EPA for the Broncos. Both rushing defenses rank around 50th in opponent rush EPA. Through the Air, you might think to give the advantage to Boise State as they rank 11th in pass EPA to 49th for UNLV, but the other side of the ball shows me that the Rebels are better at defending the pass ranking 45th in pass EPA while Boise State ranks 81st. From a total net yards per play perspective, the Rebels actually are a nice +1.38 to the Broncos at +1.26. These numbers also factor in a harder schedule as the Rebels schedule ranks 77th on Sagarin while the Broncos are at 89th. The wildcard in all of this is the legs of the quarterback. Maddux Madson will run the ball occasionally, but only has accumulated 215 yards for the season. Even though UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams didn’t really start playing until after three games, he is still the second leading rusher for this Rebels team at 768 yards and 5.91 yards per rush. I think UNLV keeps this close and could win this thing outright.
UNLV +4.5 – 2 stars
Tulane vs Army +4.5 O/U 45.5
There is a simple handicap on this game. Tulane can stop the run, and they can stop the option like they did to Navy a few weeks back winning 35-0. First year Tulane coach Jon Sumrall destroyed Army when he coached at Troy. Same triple option offense with Army and same coach with Jeff Monken. Army’s defense isn’t that good when they face a good team. My power ratings only have this game at Tulane -5, but the matchup screams Tulane as they will be able to move the ball at ease.
Tulane -4.5 – 1 star
