A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
Thursday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Toledo +7 O/U 50
Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
Time: 2 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Pittsburgh’s Motivation: Medium Low – From playoffs to Detroit? Pat Narduzzi is 2-4 ATS in bowl games.
Toledo’s Motivation: Medium Low – Terrible bowl, but they at least get to play a Power 4 team, yet Jason Candle is only 1-6 ATS in bowl games.
Home: Toledo is only 58 miles away from Detroit! I do not see a ton of Pittsburgh fans traveling to Detroit in the winter. 1.5 points for the Rockets.
Key Guys Missing:
Toledo:
Toledo Transfer Portal
- LT Allen Jones missed the finale
- S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren hasn’t played since Week 9
Pitt Transfer Portal
- DT Nahki Johnson (325 snaps)
- DT Elliot Donald (81 snaps)
- Backup QB Nate Yarnell
- WR Konata Mumpfield opting out.
- TE Gavin Bartholomew
- Starting QB Eli Holstein and starting RB Desmond Reid missed the finale due to injuries. Starting LT Branson Taylor hasn’t played since Week 7. Coach Pat Narduzzi says that Reid would be ready to go but wasn’t positive on Holstein, although he sounded a bit optimistic.
- Panthers would likely turn to redshirt freshman David Lynch if Holstein isn’t healthy enough, and with Yarnell in the portal.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Pitt: Pat Narduzzi, 2-4
- Toledo: Jason Candle, 1-6
Net YPP: Pittsburgh +.39
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more important that the strength of schedule discrepancy as Toledo’s ranks 125th while Pitt’s ranks 54th.
Verdict: Neither coach does well in bowl games. Both teams aren’t the greatest at running the ball, yet Pitt might be a bit better on defense. Its rough that Pitt has a few opt outs such as their top receiver in Konta Mompfield, but they have plenty of depth at that position. The biggest question is the quarterbacks. If Holstein can go then bet Pitt as fast as you can.
Play: Lean Pitt -7
Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State -7 O/U 50.5
Location: Chase Field (Phoenix)
Time: 5:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Rutger’s Motivation: High – This team doesn’t bowl often and Greg Schiano is 6-2 ATS in bowl games.
Kansas State’s Motivation: Low – This team was close to the Big 12 championship game at the end of the season.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Rutgers Transfer Portal
- WR Chris Long (338 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
Rutgers Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Eric Rogers, starting
- DE Arron Lewis
- S Desmond Igbinosun
Kansas State Transfer Portal
- Starting RT Carver Willis (committed to Washington)
- Starting WR Keagan Johnson
Kansas State Opt-Outs
- RB DJ Giddens (declared for NFL draft)
- CB Jacob Parrish (declared for NFL draft)
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Kansas State: Chris Klieman, 2-2
- Rutgers: Greg Schiano, 6-2
Net YPP: Kansas State +1.88
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Not a hell of a lot to say other than Kansas State should be able to run all over this team ranking 15th in rush EPA to Rutgers ranking 123rd in opponent rush EPA. The Wildcats also have the harder strength of schedule. In saying all that, Rutgers should be the much more motivated team here based on what happened at the end of the year.
Verdict: Best to wait to see who else is opting out. Schiano will get his team up for bowl games. It is tough to see if Klieman will keep his guys from transferring or opting out.
Play: Lean Kansas State -7
68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green -7.5 O/U 51
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium High – Good ole Butch Bones is good in bowls at 6-2 ATS in bowls.
Bowling Green’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great opponent, yet Scott Loeffler is only 0-2 ATS in bowls.
Home: None as Arkansas State is still over 450 miles away. Too far.
Key Guys Missing:
Bowling Green Transfer Portal
- Starting RT Alex Wollschlaeger (signed with Kentucky)
- Starting LB Joseph Sipp (signed with Kansas)
- RB Terion Stewart (244 snaps)
- DT Davonte Miles (193 snaps)
- CB Edward Rhambo (207 snaps)
Bowling Green Potential Opt-Out
- CB Jordan Oladokun
- Reports have also surfaced that all Bowling Green starters are expected to play.
- S Darius Lorfils dealt with an injury late in the season.
Arkansas State Transfer Portal
- Starting CB Dontay Joyner
- DE Jayden Jones (318 snaps)
- Backup QB Timmy McClain
- DL Nate Martey didn’t play in the finale.
- DE Jayden Jones hasn’t played since Week 9.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Arkansas State: Butch Jones, 6-2
- Bowling Green: Scott Loeffler, 0-2
Net YPP: Bowling Green +2.06
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: If everything is held even here, Bowling green should be able to move the ball at ease. They dominate in every single category. My only concern is that Scott Loeffler isn’t a good coach for bowls at 0-2 ATS, while Butch Jones is. Arkansas State is my worst power rated team in this year’s bowl season.
Verdict: I am going to lay it with Bowling Green. I just want to make sure that there are no surprises.
Play: Bowling Green -7.5
Friday, Dec. 27
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Navy +3 O/U 43.5
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Time: 3 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Oklahoma’s Motivation: Medium Low – This team had their big win and they are building for next year.
Navy’s Motivation: High – Why not get one more shot at a big named team?
Home: Big for Oklahoma as Norman is 183 miles away. But will people show up for a small bowl game? Give the Sooners the full 2.5 points.
Key Guys Missing:
Oklahoma:
- Starting QB Jackson Arnold (signed with Auburn)
- Starting WR Brenen Thompson (signed with Miss State)
- Starting WR JJ Hester
- Starting WR Jalil Farooq
- Starting TE Bauer Sharp (signed with LSU)
- CB Kani Walker (424 snaps; signed with Arkansas)
- C Josh Bates (164 snaps; signed with SMU)
- LB Dasan McCullough (160 snaps)
- WR Jaquaize Pettaway (91 snaps)
- C Geirean Hatchett (51 snaps; committed to Washington)
- WR Nic Anderson (injured)
- WR Andrel Anthony (injured)
Navy:
- None
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Oklahoma: Brent Venables, 1-1
- Navy: Brian Newberry, 0-0
Net YPP: Navy +.97
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Two huge things, Oklahoma had the 2nd hardest schedule in the world compared to Navy’s ranking 88th, and the fact that Oklahoma may struggle to field a team with the amount of players who are leaving.
Verdict: Oklahoma is close to home, but there will be Navy fans here. Why would Oklahoma be motivated at all in this bowl game? Navy will probably win.
Navy ML +130
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt +2.5 O/U 51.5
Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Georgia Tech’s Motivation: High – They love playing SEC teams.
Vanderbilt’s Motivation: High – Not far to travel and Pavia a beast.
Home: Both locations are under 200 miles away. I still kinda like Georgia Tech.
Key Guys Missing:
Georgia Tech Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Eric Singleton (potentially headed to Auburn)
- Starting LT Corey Robinson
- Starting OLB Romello Height (
- Starting S Taye Seymore (headed to Auburn)
- WR Leo Blackburn (67 snaps)
- OLB BJ Diakite (65 snaps)
- Third-string QB Zach Pyron (headed to Minnesota)
Georgia Tech Potential Opt-Outs
- TE Jackson Hawes
- RT Jordan Williams
- DT Zeek Biggers
- CB Rodney Shelley is questionable
- CB Zachary Tobe is questionable
- S Taye Seymore also didn’t play in the final few games due to an injury.
Haynes King confirmed he will play in the bowl.
Vanderbilt Transfer Portal
- Starting OT Gunnar Hansen (signed with FSU)
- Backup QB Nate Johnson
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Georgia Tech: Brent Key, 1-0
- Vanderbilt: Clark Lea, 0-0
Net YPP: Georgia Tech +1.17
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Georgia Tech really gets by from quarterback Haynes King running the ball, yet so does Vanderbilt with Dylan Pavia. There is a significant edge here for the Yellow Jackets in the fact that they should be able to move the ball both running and passing as they rank 34th in offensive success rate to Vanderbilt ranking 114th on defense. As long as the kids are playing, Georgia tech should cover this spread.
Verdict: Fun how both these teams played very well against Alabama and Georgia. As much as we love Dylan Pavia, the magic runs out for the Commodores this bowl game.
Play: Georgia Tech ML -1
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas -2 O/U 52
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
Time: 7 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Texas Tech’s Motivation: Medium High – They get to beat an SEC team.
Arkansas’s Motivation: Medium Low – Lots of kids in the transfer portal.
Home: Arkansas only 310 miles away. Give them 1.5 points here.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas Tech Transfer Portal
- LT Dalton Merryman (488 snaps)
- DT Trevon McAlpine (284 snaps)
- WR Jordan Brown (153 snaps)
Texas Tech Injuries
- QB Behren Morton will miss the bowl after having surgery. place.
- OLB Harvey Dyson hasn’t played since Week 9.
- Starting DTs De’Braylon Carroll and Quincy Ledet Jr. missed the finale.
- LB Bryce Ramirez (110 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 8.
- S Devynn Cromwell also didn’t play in the final few gamess.
Texas Tech Opt-Outs
- WR Josh Kelly
Arkansas Transfer Portal
- Starting C Addison Nichols
- Starting LG Andrew Kutas (signed with Ole Miss)
- Starting RG Joshua Braun (signed with UK)
- Starting WR Isaiah Sategna
- Starting TE Luke Hasz (signed with Ole Miss)
- Starting S TJ Metcalf
- LB Brad Spence (366 snaps; signed with Texas)
- DE Nico Davillier (362 snaps)
- RB Rashod Dubinion (175 snaps)
- RB Braylen Russell (137 snaps)
- TE Ty Washington (116 snaps)
- C Amaury Wiggins (94 snaps)
- CB Jaylon Braxton (77 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
- TE Var’Keyes Gumms (57 snaps)
Arkansas Opt-Outs
- WR Andrew Armstrong
- RB Ja’Quinden Jackson
- DE Landon Jackson
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Texas Tech: Joey McGuire, 2-0
- Arkansas: Sam Pittman, 1-1
Net YPP: Arkansas +1.5
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton will miss due to surgery, Freshman Will Hammond, who did see some action this season, will start in his place. Looks like starting QB Talen Green will start for Arkansas which is scary being that most of his offensive line is transferring.
Verdict: Arkansas had a good offense, and should be able to move the ball, but I just can’t trust them with all of the opt outs.
Play: Lean to the over 52
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: Syracuse vs. Washington State +15.5 O/U 59.5
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network: FOX
Syracuse’s Motivation: Medium – Fun place to visit and this team at least gets to beat a former Power 5 team.
Washington State’s Motivation: Low – Everyone ditched this team.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Washington State head coach Jake Dickert left to take the same position at Wake Forest. The Cougars also lost OC Ben Arbuckle to Oklahoma. Also, keep an eye on the offense, as starting C Devin Kylany missed the final two games of the season.
Wazzu is now without its head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and running backs coach.
Washington State Transfer Portal
- Starting QB John Mateer (committed to Oklahoma)
- Starting RB Wayshawn Parker
- Starting WR Kris Hutson
- Starting RT Fa’alili Fa’amoe
- Starting CB Ethan O’Connor
- Starting CB Stephen Hall
- Starting LB Taariq Al-Uqdah
- Starting S Adrian Wilson
- Starting DT Ansel Din-Mbuh
- Starting P Nick Haberer
- S Jackson Lataimua (400 snaps)
- DL Khalil Laufau (371 snaps)
- WR Tre Shackelford (179 snaps)
In all, 10 starters have entered the portal for Washington State, which says it won’t opt out of bowl as of Dec. 18.
With Mateer out it sounds like Zevi Eckhaus will get the start at quarterback for the Cougars.
Syracuse Transfer Portal
- Starting CB Jayden Bellamy
- LB Anwar Sparrow (126 snaps)
- CB Marcellus Barnes (133 snaps)
Fran Brown said he expects everybody on Syracuse to play, including QB Kyle McCord. His exact quote was, “We don’t opt out around here.”
Starting center J’Onre Reed missed the finale with an ankle injury, as did WR Umari Hatcher (359 snaps).
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Washington State, Pete Kaligis, 0-0
- Syracuse: Fran Brown, 0-0
Net YPP: Washington State +.95
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the amount of people leaving the Washington State program.
Verdict: Lay the points -15.5
Play: Syracuse -15.5 or WASU TT under
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. USC +3.5 O/U 52
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
Time: 10:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Texas A&M’s Motivation: Medium – Good to play a team like USC.
USC’s Motivation: Medium High – Good to have another chance to beat an SEC team in this stadium that would make it twice in one year.
Home: USC is much closer at only 275 miles way, but I do see lots of A&M guys in Vegas too. USC -.5 points max home field.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas A&M Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Cyrus Allen
- iOL TJ Shanahan (285 snaps)
- OG Kam Dewberry (261 snaps)
- DE Malick Sylla (60 snaps)
- Backup QB Conner Weigman (original starter; signed with Houston))
Texas A&M Opt-Outs
- DE Nic Scourton
- DE Shemar Stewart
- DT Shemar Turner
Head coach Mike Elko said he doesn’t expect any other opt-outs for the Aggies.
Texas A&M Potential Opt-Outs
- RB Le’Veon Moss
USC Transfer Portal
- Starting RT Mason Murphy
- Starting WR Kyron Hudson (signed with Penn State)
- Starting WR Duce Robinson
- Starting WR Zachariah Branch
- Backup RB Quinten Joyner (210 snaps)
- TE Kade Eldridge (234 snaps)
- S Zion Branch (217 snaps)
- OLB Sam Greene (205 snaps; signed with UK)\
- QB Miller Moss (original starting QB; signed with Louisville)
- DL Bear Alexander (opted out earlier this season)
USC Opt-Outs
- CB Jaylin Smith
- RB Woody Marks
Coach Bowl ATS:
- USC: Lincoln Riley, 3-3
- Texas A&M: Mike Elko, 1-0
Net YPP: USC +.11
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Rushing advantage to Texas A&M ranking 43rd in rushing EPA while USC ranks 92 in opponent rush EPA. Passing advantage to USC ranking 8th in passing success rate to Texas A&M ranking 40th in opponent pass EPA. The problem is all of the D line opt outs for A&M, and the wide receiver opt outs for USC.
Verdict: What gives? I see some motivation on both sides. Need to wait more.
Play: Lean Texas A&M -3.5
References:
