We have a Monday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a small slate of games. Current CBB record to start the season is a mundane 20-20, but we always pick up the pace once conference action really gets underway.
My free play today takes us to San Francisco, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the San Francisco Dons (11-3 Overall, 1-0 WCC) hosting the Santa Clara Broncos (9-5 Overall, 1-0 WCC). The line checks in with San Francisco as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 145.
After a rough 2-4 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken seven of its last eight games, and the Broncos currently ride a six-game win streak into Monday night’s contest. Last time out, Santa Clara opened up conference play defeating Pepperdine at home 91-80. Five players scored in double-figures for Santa Clara as senior guard, the Frechman Adama-Alpha Bal paced the offense with 19 points, to go along with a season-high eight assists. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 13.3 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 48.1 percent from distance through his first 14 games at SCU. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 12.1 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard.
On Saturday San Francisco opened up conference play with a 70-55 victory over Loyola Maramount at home. Mailk Thomas again led the Dons in scoring with 19 points to go along with a season-high 7 rebounds. Recently promoted starting Forward Junjie Wang chipped in his best effort of the season with 10 points. The Dons also have a 7-footer that can stretch the floor in Carlton Linguard although he isn’t nearly as efficient from outside as Tilly.
Santa Clara is playing at a slower pace the last two seasons than they had previously under Coach Herb Sendek. The Broncos have been living and dying by the three point shot with 37.4% of their points coming from deep and they are Top 50 in both triples attempted and made. That will put strength on strength tonight as the Dons are only giving up 30.9% from three on defense. In fact the Dons defense has really been solid all around. They have only allowed opponents to reach 70 points three times this season and it hasn’t happened since November 25th. I think they will continue to look to dominate in half court sets and work on keeping Santa Clara from getting out and running. Both of these offenses also turn the ball over at greater than a 17.5% clip. Both teams defenses force better than 18.0% turnover rates so there could be some lost possessions tonight. Both teams have solid rotations going 10 deep on both sides regularly.
For me this is a big time early season conference match-up where the team that plays the best defense is going to come out on top. Both their match-ups last season went under this total, and I think they are very similar teams and styles to what we saw last year. I expect the defensive intensity to be high and as long as we don’t have the whistle happy zebras tonight the score should stay low and tight. I have this game at 72-68 for the Dons, so I am playing the under tonight.
Under 145 1.5 Units
