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Texans vs Chiefs -8.5 O/U 41.5
Let’s get started with the Houston Texan’s usual spot on Saturday! The Texans are feeling pretty hot yet the Chiefs are on over 20 days rest. Is that much rest a good thing? Maybe there could be some rust, but Andy Reid has proven that it is in fact good for the Chiefs. Kansas City is number 9 in EPA on offense. They are 10th in drop-back EPA and 13th in rush EPA. Houston ranks 21st in EPA. They are 21st in drop-back EPA and 23rd in Rush EPA. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs rank 15th in defensive EPA, 15th in drop-back EPA, and 11th in rush EPA. The Texans rank 6th in defensive EPA, 7th in drop-back EPA, and 6th in rush EPA. Looking at the numbers, it is easy to see why the total is so low as both teams metrically matchup pretty equal. Even net yards per play is at a net 0. I think I like the Texans to keep it close or at least back door this spread. The Chiefs have not covered big numbers this year and they just care about getting the W. The Chiefs allow 70.1 yards per game to tight ends. I think a prop on Dalton Shultz makes some good sense. I think that the Chiefs should win this, but this spread is a bit too much.
Texans +8.5 – 2 stars – Dalton Shultz over 38.5 rec yards – 1 star
Commanders vs Lions -8.5 O/U 55.5
This is gonna be a great game to watch if the high total lives up to it’s number. The Lions are 3rd in offensive EPA. They are 3rd in drop-back EPA and 5th in rush EPA. The Commies are 4th in offensive EPA. They are 4th in drop-back EPA and 4th in rush EPA. From the defensive side of the ball, the Lions are 7th in defensive EPA, 6th in drop-back EPA, and 12th in rush EPA. The Commanders are 22nd in defensive EPA, 13th in drop-back EPA, and rough 27th in rush EPA. Detroit has a +.3 net yards per play advantage. Detroit is more efficient in yards per point on both offense and defense. Looking at the numbers, the Lions should be able to run the ball whenever they want to, and especially since David Montgomery is back. This isn’t good for an over. There are also issues with the fact that the Commanders are over 80% in fourth down conversions and will go for them. The Lions give up the most yards to wide receivers, yet it is also because of the shootouts they are in. Some Terry McLauren or a Dyami Brown Props may be live. The Lions are very thin at defense, yet they are still somehow still playing great. Any big injury may call for a live bet on Washington. The Commanders allow the least receiving yards to running backs at only 22.8, but that could be due to the bad division. This spread is probably a tad too high. The Lions are just too efficient on offense. I think a seven would be more of a fair number. Let’s attack the prop market instead.
Dyami Brown over 35.5 rec yards – .5 stars – Total Punts under 6.5 -170 – 1 star
