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Monday, Jan. 20
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T: Ohio State vs Notre Dame +8.5 O/U 45.5
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None as both fan bases will come hard.
Key Guys Missing:
Notre Dame:
- LT Anthony Knapp went out last game and will miss the championship.
- RB Jeremiyah Love questionable.
- DT Team Captain Rylie Mills out for the season.
- TE Cooper Flanagan is out with a foot injury.
Ohio State:
- C Seth McLaughlin is out
- OT Josh Simmons is out.
Postseason Coach ATS:
- Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 4-0
- Ohio State: Ryan Day, 5-4
Net YPP: Ohio State +1.04
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Wow, where do I start here. Ohio State certainly has the highest upside ranking 2nd in offensive EPA. They can run the ball and pass the ball to their future NFL wide receivers when needed. Notre Dame ranks a modest 8th in offensive EPA, but they do not pass the ball all that well ranking 47th in passing EPA. On defense it is really a push as both defenses rank top two in EPA. Notre dame tends to allow a lot more on the ground as we saw during the first half against Penn State, but they really tighten up in the red zone.
Verdict: Let’s face it, Notre Dame is the better team coached team but Ohio State is better by the numbers and we can see that. I think that the intangibles can play a big part in this game. I think that the coaching edge goes to Marcus Freeman. I also really like offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock who should have watched Texas throw the ball very successfully to their running backs on wheel routs in the semi-finals. I also think that Al Golden may be the best thing that Notre Dame has had for the last 50+ years running the defense. He will understand Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelley and his schemes quite well.
Ohio State went on a pretty bad cold spell against Texas and virtually lost all momentum. The box score only has Ohio State out-gaining Texas by 29 yards and that is including that end of the first half explosive play from Treveon Henderson. If it wasn’t for the fumble 6 that swung that game 14 points, Texas might have won that game in overtime. I have Notre Dame better than Texas. This number should be Ohio State by about 6 points and that is giving them some extra love for their recent performances against Tennessee and Oregon. There is some concern that Notre Dame lost their left tackle against Penn State in Anthony Knapp. This is true but if you remember, the original starting left tackle Charles Jagusah is back from injury. He played guard last game, but could slide into left tackle if needed. Tosh Baker is a great job at left tackle filling in so they might just stay at their positions. Lastly, Ohio State might have the passing advantage over Notre Dame’s offense, but the Irish rank number 1 in the country at opponent QBR. If anyone can slow down the Buckeye’s, it’s the Irish. I have this ending in a one score game. Take the points.
Notre Dame +8.5 – 1.5 stars – Look at Notre Dame running back receiving props as well!
