Chiefs vs Eagles +1.5 O/U 48.5
Well, it is the matchup that we all cringed about yet knew could happen. Here we are. This game reminds me of the movie The Matrix. Are we going to take the red pill to see reality? Or are we going to take the blue pill to remain happily brainwashed? Let’s break it down.
The Chiefs are number 8 in offensive EPA. They are number 8 in drop-back EPA and number 13 in rush EPA. The Eagles are number 6 in offensive EPA. They are number 7 in drop-back EPA and number 1 in rush EPA.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are number 17 in defensive EPA. They are number 16 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 15 in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles are number 2 in defensive EPA. They are number 3 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 2 in opponent rush EPA.
What does this all say? Well, it says that the Eagles are the better team and should be able to move the ball on the Chiefs’ defense almost at will. Yet, the Chiefs just can’t stop winning, now can they?
Both teams are very close in yards per point, both on offense and defense. The Eagles move the ball much better than the Chiefs at a net positive 0.9 yards per play, while the Chiefs are a net negative -0.3 yards per play. The Eagles should have significant advantages over the Chiefs. One big mismatch is the Eagles’ defensive line should be able to manhandle the Chiefs’ offensive line. Why are the Chiefs so good then? Well, it’s due to some clutch factors that are hard to quantify.
The Chiefs have a very stingy defense, allowing 17 yards per point, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are also great at 3rd down conversions, ranking 3rd at 48%. Is this enough to justify the Eagles statistically being the much better team with a +1.3 net yards per play? I think we would have to be fools to not see that the flags tend to be thrown and, of course, “not thrown” Kansas City’s way.
There are many theories on why the Chiefs are favored by the officials—from the “Vegas Called” theory (which is a bit far-fetched), to the idea that “the NFL and the networks make more money when the Chiefs win” (much more plausible). I personally think that the officials feel they need to appease someone upstairs, which is clearly the wrong thing to do. For some reason, the NFL allows it. We may never know why that is, but here are some numbers to think about from Warren Sharp showing a statistically significant officiating advantage towards the Chiefs: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/chiefs-referee-playoffs-penalties-2024-divisional-round/
At the end of the day, my numbers have the Eagles winning this game 25-22. Going back to what I said about The Matrix, by now it should be clear that if you take the blue pill, you are betting on the Eagles. Maybe in betting on this side, you could be in complete denial of the fact that this game may be biased and manipulated for the Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers are strongly in your favor, and you expect Hurts to be just as clutch as Mahomes in an evenly called game. You are basically a metrics-only handicapper and will continue to go with that.
On the other side, if you take the red pill, you are waking up and betting on the Chiefs knowing that the Chiefs are going to win. Even though every logical, numbers-based, quantitative handicap says to bet on the Eagles, you are using a qualitative eye test approach. You see not only that Mahomes and the Chiefs are very clutch but also bank on the refs favoring your side. I’m not saying this is wrong. The intangible aspects of these Chiefs’ victories have been colossal. Fading the Chiefs can be used to define insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
For me, I’m not taking either of these pills. I would personally feel like an idiot if I bet on either side of this game and lost. If I truly like how the Eagles move the ball and play defense, I could always attack that in the prop market.
One bet that I did make was the 1st half under. I honestly believe that in Super Bowls, teams try not to make big mistakes early and give the game away. The teams are more risk-averse and would rather play small ball than go for explosive results. I bet this side every year, but ironically, the only year it didn’t work out for me out of the last eight or so was this exact matchup two years ago. I think both of these teams have better defenses than they had in 2022, so I do think they can put a stop to scoring. I will continue to ride this trend.
Best Bet: 1st half under 24.5 – 2 stars
One last thing. If the Eagles are going to win this game, I think they have to be up by a few scores late. Nobody wants to give Mahomes the ball with the zebras watching with extra care on the last drive. I think the Eagles know this, and there is a chance that if they do win, it has to be by a margin. I’m going to take a play on the Eagles’ alternate line at -6.5. We can also possibly hedge this later and win money either way.
Eagles Alt line -6.5 +261 – 1 star
