We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games.
My free play today takes us to Easton, PA for some Patriot League Action featuring the Lafayette Leopards (11-18 Overall, 6-10 Patriot) hosting the Army Black Knights (16-12 Overall, 10-6 Patriot). The line checks in with Lafayette as a slight favorite at -3.5 and the over/under sits at 138.
Army is led by Senior guard Jalen Rucker with 17.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 3.2 apg. Rucker now sits sixth all-time on Army’s scoring list. With one more win in Patriot League play, the Black Knights will officially break the record for most wins in league play in program history.
The Lafayette Leopards are led Senior center Justin Vander Baan who has blocked 68 shots this season, good for seventh in the country and first in the Patriot League. His 2.8 blocks per game average ranks third in the NCAA. As a program, Lafayette is first in the conference in blocks per game (3.4). Scoring is led by Freshman Guard Alex Chaikin at 12.4 ppg.
Here’s the keys to tonight:
While neither of these teams has showcased any signature wins Army has been the better team in the Patriot League up to this point. The Black Knights main strength has been taking care of the rock. Lafayette doesn’t force many turnovers and they don’t apply a heavy pressure on the defensive side of the ball. With their interior defense led by Vander Baan they are at 89th in defensive 2 point field goal percentage allowed at 48.7%. Army’s best offensive strength is getting inside and I think Lafayette will slow that down tonight and make Army shoot from distance where they only hit at 32.5%. When the Leopards have the ball they typically will fire a higher percentage of shots from 3-point range where they hit at 33.6%. Both teams are well below average at shooting free throws and neither team gets to the line at a good clip.
In their first match-up in January the Leopards shot 54.2% overall and 47.2% from deep. Army was no slouch either checking in at 48.2% and 38.5% from distance. Jalen Rucker accounted for 29 points and I expect Lafayette to try and take him out of the game and force someone else to score on them which should take longer for the Black knights to adjust to and create longer possessions especially early in the game. Lafayette also had an almost 7 minute scoreless streak in the second half where they went 0 for 6 from the field with 4 turnovers.
I don’t see either team repeating the shooting from the first match-up especially from distance, and the pace will only get pushed if Army gets behind by double digits in the second half. I think we’re in for a game of long slow possessions with lots of long shots being jacked up at the end of the shot clock. I have this at 69-64 Lafayette so I am putting a wager on the under in Easton, PA tonight.
Under 138 1.5 Units.
