Cincinnati (17-14, 7-13 Conf.) vs Oklahoma State (15-16, 7-13 Conf.)
Spread: Cincinnati -7.5
Total: 138.5
The Big 12 tournament kicks off Tuesday in Kansas City with an 11:30 AM matchup between the 13 seed Cincinnati Bearcats and the 12 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys. These 2 teams met just 3 days ago in Stillwater in the season finale, which saw the Cowboys defend their home court with a 78-67 victory. Oklahoma State enters the week needing to run the table and win the tournament in order to get into the dance, while Cincinnati will likely need at the very least an appearance in the championship game on Saturday in order to have a chance at an at-large bid.
Key Stats to Consider:
- Oklahoma State ranks 13th in the Big 12 and 262nd in the country in 3 pt. FG% at 32.1%
- Cincinnati ranks 6th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency at 0.969 and Oklahoma State ranks 14th in the conference at 1.038.
- Oklahoma State is 2nd in the Big 12 in possessions per game at 73.4 and Cincinnati is last in the conference at 67.4
- Oklahoma State is 3-13 outside of Gallagher-Iba Arena this season with wins against Miami, Tulsa, and Seton Hall
Thoughts
This matchup presents one of the biggest contrasts in style that the Big 12 has to offer. Cincinnati plays at the slowest pace in the league and is most comfortable in a half-court defensive style game, while the Cowboys want to get up and run and push the pace on their opponents. In Saturday’s matchup, Oklahoma State jumped out to an 18 point 1st half lead and was able to control the pace of the game the entire way as Cincinnati was forced to play catch up from that point on. The Cowboys were a scorching 7-9 from 3-point range and were able to get to the FT line 17 times compared to only 7 attempts from the Bearcats. The Cowboys have struggled from behind the 3-point line all season and it would be very surprising to see them put up similar numbers again today against one of the better defenses in the league. If this is the case, I think we’ll see Cincinnati do a much better job of dictating the pace to their liking and making life much more difficult on the Cowboys 2 leading scorers Bryce Thompson and Abou Ousmane, who both put up big numbers on Saturday. The Bearcats return 6 of their core rotation players from last year’s team which won 2 games in the 2024 Big 12 tournament. They should enter Kansas City this year with experience and confidence to build on some of the success that they had on this court last year.
On paper Cincinnati is a very tough and uncomfortable matchup for Oklahoma State. Saturday didn’t show that due to the Cowboys shooting 78% from 3-point range and getting to the line 10 more times than Cincinnati but now that the Bearcats have had a few days to make some defensive adjustments and the Cowboys are away from the only arena they’ve been able to find success in this year, I think we’ll see the Bearcats bounce back and do enough to keep the Cowboys out of arms reach and cover this number.
The Pick: Cincinnati -7.5
