Saturday:
Florida vs Auburn +2.5 O/U 157.5 –Alamodome, San Antonio TX
- This has become a very interesting game. It is basically an SEC Finals.
- Metrically, these teams are pretty close to the same power as Auburn is the medium paced team with balance. They can hit from all over the court, while Florida is more of a rim and three point team as you can see from this diagaram from haslametrics.
- These two teams met earlier in the season on February 8th where Auburn took their first loss at home.
- There are some pretty big variables going into this game. First is Johni Broome’s right elbow injury. I am sure that he will play through it, but it will probably affect him some.
- The other big issue is that Florida has been extremely inconsistent since winning the SEC tournament. They should have lost to Texas Tech and they were outplayed most of the game against Uconn. It’s hard to diagnose what is going on minus just having end of season fatigue.
- Florida is the faster paced team turnovers have been an issue for them.
- Auburn has been a very clutch team themselves after some slow starts to this tournament. This team has always seem to pull away at the end as long as the game is close.
- My number is Florida -2 with the Broome injury, but I think that maybe the Gators come out swinging in the first half.
- I do not see either team getting blown out, even if someone comes out to having a decent lead. This is probably a good live betting game.
- Lean Florida 1st half -1.5
- Lean Auburn +2.5
- Lean under 159.5
Houston vs Duke -5 O/U 136.5 – Alamodome, San Antonio TX
- According to Kenpom, Haslametrics and Bart Torvik, these are the number 1 and number 2 teams facing off.
- I somewhat disagree with this. I have Houston the 5th best team in my ratings right behind Alabama, but close enough.
- Looking at the metrics, Houston has a slight advantage shooting the three ball over duke, but that is only because Houston is the number one team in adjusted three point percentage and Duke ranks 27th defending it on defense.
- What Haslametrics is not showing is that Duke shoots an amazing 58.2% effective FG compared to Houston at 52.3%. This means they make more big shots more often. That is a pretty large difference. Duke also gets to the free throw line and more often and shoots an amazing 79% from the charity stripe.
- One of the big matchup differences that I see is that Houston will struggle shooting standard two point shots against Duke.
- The Bluedevils will have the rebounding advantage believe it or not, even though Houston ranks so well tipping the ball back out on offense, I think that coach Scheyer will plan for this.
- The Blue Devils have an extra geer that they pull out when needed. I could see some scoring draughts from the Cougars.
- Looking at the factors, I just think that Duke is the better all around team. Houston hasn’t seen an offense this good since maybe Auburn and Alabama back in November where the Cougars lost by both games by five points. I think this line is a point short. Take Duke.
- Duke -5 – 2.5 stars
